SOME WANT WAR WITH IRAN, NOW
IRAN HAS BEEN ADVISED TO NOT TAKE THE BAIT
The Middle East, while an area of unrest for decades, has reached an unprecedented time of violence and instability. This did not just come about by bad luck, but by a series of poor diplomatic decisions and interventions by Western powers and the desire by Islamic leaders for an Islamic Government or Caliphate.
We will try to be as brief as possible and still provide an objective background for this subject.
We must keep in mind that 85% of the Muslim world population is Sunni (mostly in southeast Asia) and 15% is Shia. This split can be traced back to the death of the Prophet. It was a dispute over who the successor should be...the Sunnis believed Abu Bakr was the most qualified to succeed as caliph by consensus of the community. The Shias believed succession should go to the closest blood relative Ali Ibn Abi Talib. This was the beginning of the divide that has led to wars and disputes for over 1300 years. While Sunni and Shia Muslims have lived side by side, intermarried, and fought along side each other for long periods of time, there often comes a period when a fight for supremacy erupts. The desire for a Caliphate or Islamic government is espoused by both sects of Islam, neither side would be happy with the rule of the other.
Iran is approximately 95% Shia, Azerbaijan 90%, Iraq 75%, Bahrain 70%, also large minorities in Yemen, Syria, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Lebanon. The rest of the Middle East and North Africa, as well as Asia, are Sunni. The population of Shias could be 30% in the Middle East. While their differences started over succession, there are also other differences in their beliefs. We are giving this information as it is important background for understanding the Middle East situation, but this could be a very long subject in itself.
While Iran has been able to remain an independent country for over 2 millennium, it has had a continuing interaction with both Britain and Russia, sometimes in conflict and sometimes in cooperation. Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan were once part of Persia, but were ceded to Russia in the 19th Century. Much of the early trade in Iran was controlled by Britain. During WW2 Iran tried to remain independent, but eventually was occupied by British, Russian and American troops.
Mohamed Reza Shah Pahlavi ascended to the throne in 1941.The British owned Anglo-Iranian Oil Co. and extracted and marketed Iranian oil. When WW2 ended, Iran set out to modernize the country. While the Shah vowed to act as a constitutional monarchy, he increasingly involved himself in governmental affairs and engaged in manipulation of the political process and opposed or thwarted the Prime Ministers. In 1951 the Iranian Parliament voted to nationalize the oil industry, controlled by Britain. Dr. Muhammad Mosaddeq was elected prime minister after the assassination of his predecessor. Britain responded with threats and sanctions and tried unsuccessfully to move the US under Truman to take action against Mosaddeq. By 1952 Mosaddeq was becoming more dictatorial and demanded control of the military. The Shah refused and Mosaddeq resigned. He was reinstated after riots demanded he return. He then conducted a national referendum to dissolve parliament. The Shah fled to Baghdad.
Mosaddeg, an aging, eccentric academic, was immensely popular with people. He was a nationalist, not a communist, although he had some support of the communists. In 1953 when Eisenhower became president, the British and others were able to convince Washington that Mosaddeg was about to align Iran with the USSR. The Army, loyal to the Shah, with help from the CIA and Britain overthrew and arrested Mosaddeq. This coup earned the USA and Britain the lasting hatred of large sectors of the Iranian public. Mosaddeq remains a folk hero of Iranian Nationalism.
The Shah took advantage of the politics of the cold war. He was a ally of the west, and friendly to Israel. He initiated reforms including land reform, extending voting rights to women and eliminating illiteracy. There was opposition to these reforms by Shia clerics and supporters of the status quo. The Shah responded by suppressing and persecuting his opposition through his security and intelligence organization, SAVAK, which used tactics including arbitrary arrest, imprisonment, exile and torture. Israel was accused of helping the Shah organize SAVAK.
The Ayatollah Khomeini was exiled to Iraq from Iran in 1965. He moved to France in 1978. He was an opponent of the Shah and preached an absolutist theocratic rule. His ideas where propagated into Iran by books and cassettes smuggled into Iran. The Shah, suffering from cancer left Iran on Jan. 16. 1979. He appointed Shapour Baktiar as Prime Minister. Baktiar was unable to keep order, and invited Khomeini back to Iran. Khomeini returned on February 1, 1979. Mass purges began, with many executions, including four military generals. In March a referendum was held, with only one form of government on the ballot, an Islamic Republic, and was approved by 98% of voters in non-secret elections.
Executions were expanded, Kurds, Arabs, Turkomans and other minorities demanded autonomy. Suppression of most rights was the rule and a free press and expression were forbidden. The Sunni neighbors were fearful of a spread of this ideology. The new government allowed the American embassy to be overrun and hostages to be taken. Boycotts and sanctions were imposed by the west. Neighboring countries were being subverted by propaganda from Iran. Economic conditions were deteriorating in Iran. This was the beginning of the chaos that was to follow.
Iranians that I knew in the early 1980's could not return home and their families could not leave. They detested the reign of the Shah and the excesses of SAVAK, but feared that their lives would be short if they attempted to return home.
While Iran has been able to remain an independent country for over 2 millennium, it has had a continuing interaction with both Britain and Russia, sometimes in conflict and sometimes in cooperation. Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan were once part of Persia, but were ceded to Russia in the 19th Century. Much of the early trade in Iran was controlled by Britain. During WW2 Iran tried to remain independent, but eventually was occupied by British, Russian and American troops.
Mohamed Reza Shah Pahlavi ascended to the throne in 1941.The British owned Anglo-Iranian Oil Co. and extracted and marketed Iranian oil. When WW2 ended, Iran set out to modernize the country. While the Shah vowed to act as a constitutional monarchy, he increasingly involved himself in governmental affairs and engaged in manipulation of the political process and opposed or thwarted the Prime Ministers. In 1951 the Iranian Parliament voted to nationalize the oil industry, controlled by Britain. Dr. Muhammad Mosaddeq was elected prime minister after the assassination of his predecessor. Britain responded with threats and sanctions and tried unsuccessfully to move the US under Truman to take action against Mosaddeq. By 1952 Mosaddeq was becoming more dictatorial and demanded control of the military. The Shah refused and Mosaddeq resigned. He was reinstated after riots demanded he return. He then conducted a national referendum to dissolve parliament. The Shah fled to Baghdad.
Mosaddeg, an aging, eccentric academic, was immensely popular with people. He was a nationalist, not a communist, although he had some support of the communists. In 1953 when Eisenhower became president, the British and others were able to convince Washington that Mosaddeg was about to align Iran with the USSR. The Army, loyal to the Shah, with help from the CIA and Britain overthrew and arrested Mosaddeq. This coup earned the USA and Britain the lasting hatred of large sectors of the Iranian public. Mosaddeq remains a folk hero of Iranian Nationalism.
The Shah took advantage of the politics of the cold war. He was a ally of the west, and friendly to Israel. He initiated reforms including land reform, extending voting rights to women and eliminating illiteracy. There was opposition to these reforms by Shia clerics and supporters of the status quo. The Shah responded by suppressing and persecuting his opposition through his security and intelligence organization, SAVAK, which used tactics including arbitrary arrest, imprisonment, exile and torture. Israel was accused of helping the Shah organize SAVAK.
The Ayatollah Khomeini was exiled to Iraq from Iran in 1965. He moved to France in 1978. He was an opponent of the Shah and preached an absolutist theocratic rule. His ideas where propagated into Iran by books and cassettes smuggled into Iran. The Shah, suffering from cancer left Iran on Jan. 16. 1979. He appointed Shapour Baktiar as Prime Minister. Baktiar was unable to keep order, and invited Khomeini back to Iran. Khomeini returned on February 1, 1979. Mass purges began, with many executions, including four military generals. In March a referendum was held, with only one form of government on the ballot, an Islamic Republic, and was approved by 98% of voters in non-secret elections.
Executions were expanded, Kurds, Arabs, Turkomans and other minorities demanded autonomy. Suppression of most rights was the rule and a free press and expression were forbidden. The Sunni neighbors were fearful of a spread of this ideology. The new government allowed the American embassy to be overrun and hostages to be taken. Boycotts and sanctions were imposed by the west. Neighboring countries were being subverted by propaganda from Iran. Economic conditions were deteriorating in Iran. This was the beginning of the chaos that was to follow.
Iranians that I knew in the early 1980's could not return home and their families could not leave. They detested the reign of the Shah and the excesses of SAVAK, but feared that their lives would be short if they attempted to return home.
THIS HSITORY WAS PUBLISHED 12/8/2015
1/5/2024
We see the war drums now beating concerning Iran. We hear calls for attacks on Iran by John Bolton and Nikki Haley. We see that Israel would like to instigate a war with the U.S. and Iran. It has openly called for the U.S. to strike targets in Iran and in the last few days we have strikes, although they have been denied by the U.S. and Israel.
While Iran has been called the biggest supporter of terrorism, it may be true if you limit it to the middle east region, but sunni sects have mostly been responsible for international terrorism, in the U.S. and Europe. Much of the Sunni terrorism has been halted by a crackdown by the new leader in Saudi Arabia who prosecuted those in the country who supported terrorist groups.
Iran without a doubt wants to spread its style of Islam in the region, it has supported groups like the Houthis in Yemen and has supported Syria in its ongoing conflict. It also has supported Hezbollah in Lebanon. Accusations of Iran masterminding the Hamas attack in Israel is probably not a fact. Contrary to much of the hype, Hamas is not beloved by these other factions.
It is true that Iran has been vocally calling for the destruction of Israel and is an avowed enemy of the United States, but at the same time there are indications that Iran has been moving to more moderate position. It has made progress with relations with saudi arabia and that would put pressure on Iran to relinquish support for the Houthis who are committing acts of terrorism in Saudi Arabia. Israel and Saudi Arabia were in the process of normalizing relations when Hamas attacked Israel. This may have been an act of desperation as Hamas watched as the political environment in the region was changing. This could also apply to the Houthis.
The major countries in the region do not want a war, this includes Iran. They can assume any war in the region would stifle their plans for a new economic and political environment in their being now members of the BRICS union. Egypt, Iran Saudi Arabia and the UAE became members on Jan.1, 2024. They all feel this too important for them to get dragged into a war in this local dispute.
You can be sure that Russia and China have been counselling Iran and other major countries to be restrained and not take the bait to go to war. A baiting that will likely be intensified, because Israel wants such a war and some in the U.S. may believe that such a war will have positive political results for them. They may also believe that such a war can short circuit the growing movement to a economic system independent of U.S. control.
That may be a real roll of the dice as it could very well hasten rather short circuit that coming reality and could also have devastating consequences on the entire world. We can only hope that some better diplomatic decisions can be made.
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