Taiwan, similarities to Ukraine.

 ELECTION OF PRO-INDEPENDENCE LEADER

NO END TO DANGEROUS DILEMMA

The election in Taiwan has now been concluded with the pro-independence candidate winning this election. While winning with a plurality among several candidates, he won without a clear majority with 40% of the vote. This election has done little to solidify the future of Taiwan. 

The People's Republic of China has been recognized as the legitimate government of China. This decision was made by the international community, led by the United States, in 1979. It concluded that the PRC was the only legitimate government in China and that Taiwan was part of China. It was assumed and recognized that Taiwan would eventually be reunited with the mainland.

While this may have been the  missed opportunity to declare independence of Taiwan, if that was a goal, it was a decision that is still verbally recognized by the United States and the international community. Verbally, but in effect, the United States has been encouraging Taiwan to not be incorporated into mainland China and has preceded to sell military equipment and pledged to assist Taiwan in defending itself from any incorporation into China.

Taiwan and China engage in over $200 billion in trade. Taiwan has over $200 billion in investments in China and this arrangement has allowed for great prosperity for Taiwan. China is its greatest trading partner. 

Neither China or Taiwan wishes for this to rise to armed combat, but China is never going to agree to Taiwan's independence and further antagonism and meddling by outside powers will inevitably lead to fewer positive choices for Taiwan. If Taiwan becomes some sort of proxy for global rivalieries, Taiwan will be the first and greatest loser in such a struggle.

The best hope for Taiwan is some sort of local self government while still being part of China, similar to a U.S. states status. Independence would result in immediate war and Taiwan could not, and the U.S. could not, prevail in such a conflict.

While it seems Taiwan is in a serious situation, there have generally good relations, so far, with the mainland, they are the same people and neither would benefit from a war. If left to their own devices and without outside meddling they could come to some workable solution. If they become some sort of proxy for western powers in the region, their future will be catastrophic.