Chronology of Ukraine conflict.

 

NATO EXPANSION IS AT ROOT OF DISPUTE

BAD DECISION WITH HISTORIC CONSEQUENCES

While we hear lots of narratives about the desire of Putin to reestablish the old Soviet Union, it is in fact just a false narrative. The real cause of this conflict is NATO expansion to the borders of the Russian federation and Russia's refusal to submit to this threat to their security. It is not different than a Chinese or Russian alliance with Canada or Mexico that would put weapons and bases on the United States border. That would be unacceptable to the United States and to every administration in history.

NATO, the north Atlantic Treaty organization, was a cold war arrangement to counter the Soviet Union and its satellite countries, "The Warsaw Pact". The Warsaw pact was dissolved in 1991.

When the Soviet Union allowed independence of its eastern European satellites and the reunification of Germany the United states pledged that NATO would not expand any further east and that reunified Germany would be a NATO member. This was in 1991. Total of 16 members.

1999, NATO expanded east with Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. Russia complained, but took no action.

2004, NATO expanded with the addition of Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia And Slovenia. Russia again complained but took no action.

2008, The U.S. in a speech by  George Bush 11, invited Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO. This was responded to with warnings from Russia that it was unacceptable and that Russia would not allow NATO on their borders. It was followed by a Russian intervention in Georgia.

2009, NATO expanded with Albania and Croatia.

2014, the United States and Western European nations engineered and assisted in the overthrow of the elected government in Ukraine. The country was divided politically with the western region wanting to join NATO and the eastern region wanting to be a neutral country. The eastern region declared independence and an internal war broke out between the separatists in the east and the Kiev government. The deposed leader Victor Yanukovych had pledged to reach a peaceful arrangement with Russia. He was labeled as a Russian puppet by the west. The United States led by Victoria Nuland and Joe Biden spend $5 billion to help with the ouster of Yanukovych and picked the next leader of Ukraine.

Russia responded by helping to have Crimea declare independence from Ukraine and had elections with the Crimeans overwhelming voting to be reunited with Russia.  

The Eastern Ukrainian revolt continued with over 14,000 civilians dying in the Donbass region from shelling and attempts to retake the area. 

Russian, France, Germany and Ukraine reached an agreement called the Minx accords with the hope of protected rights for the Russian population in eastern Ukraine. There was the Minx 1 and Minx 2 agreements which the west never held up their side of the bargain. The leaders of both Germany and France later admitted it was just a stalling strategy to arm Ukraine for war with Russia.

2019, Volodymyr Zelensky elected on anti corruption and making peace with Russia platform. On March 11, 2021 Zelensky made the following statements.

"The document defines a set of measures of a diplomatic, military, economic, information, humanitarian and other nature, aimed at restoring territorial integrity and state sovereignty of Ukraine within the internationally recognized borders through the deoccupation and reintegration of Crimea".

This was followed by Ukraine increasing the troops in the Donbass and this followed by Russia massing troops on the Ukraine border.

The situation escalated with NATO pledging support and Putin offering a new security arrangement for Europe, with Ukraine being a neutral non aligned country. This was dismissed by the West with disdain, claiming Russia had no vote in the matter. 

Eventually on Feb. 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine with a force of 190,000 troops. This force was far too few to actually occupy Ukraine and it has been revealed this was an attempt to trigger serious negotiations.

It has also been revealed that a tentative agreement was reached in Ankara in March 2022, just 1 month after the onset. Russia withdrew its forces from Kiev in a sign of good faith. It has also been revealed by those independent negotiators that the UK and the U.S. insisted that Ukraine could win this conflict and not to negotiate a settlement.

Russia then withdrew it forces into a defensive position and held elections in 4 oblasts of eastern Ukraine with a referendum that agreed to be annexed into Russia. Russia then mobilized its reserves and went on a war footing, increasing production of weapons' and materials.

The west responded by levying 10 rounds of economic sanctions and in effect estranged Russia from western commerce. So far, Russia has prospered while western Europe is beset with energy shortages and the prospect of economic decline.

Massive amounts of western equipment, training ads supplies have not yielded any serious results in pushing back Russia's defensive lines. Ukraines much heralded counteroffensive is over and now Russia is incrementally destroying Ukraines army and equipment.

While Russia wanted a neutral non aligned Ukraine, Ukraine has now lost 25% of its country. It now appears that Russia is anticipating to move west to the Dnieper river and to include Odessa before it will be ready for any negotiations. Russia no longer has any credible counterpart for negotiation and it appears this conflict will be decided on the battlefield.

This Ukraine conflict has become a pivotal moment in world history. It appears that it has triggered the creation of a multipolar political and economic world. Irreconcilable lines have been crossed and the narrative has been juvenile and counter productive. The best hope is that it will soon end and the west will accept failure. Hopefully, Ukraine can salvage some of its country and the world can transition into a future reality, peacefully.