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Monday, January 8, 2024

Russia still self restrained in Ukraine.

THIS HAS NEVER BEEN ALL OUT WAR

STILL HOPES FOR FUTURE RELATIONS


There has been a continuing narrative that Russia has been stalled in its all out war with Ukraine. An objective view could only conclude that Russia has been restrained in this conflict. It could have fought a much more aggressive war, if it really wanted to. 

For one, Russia has still not taken out the bridges and railways that cross the Dnieper river. It has not destroyed the government buildings in Kiev. It has not targeted Ukrainian political leaders. While Ukraine is constantly complaining that Russia has been targeting civilians, most of the civilian casualties have been incurred by spent defensive missiles. Israel has inflicted more civilian casualties in 3 months than Russia in 2 years. 

It is clear that Russia's goal is to attain its strategic goals, without completely destroying Ukraine. While in the end that may be the result, it is not the objective.

One must wonder, if the United States and NATO ever believed that Ukraine could prevail in this conflict. In the beginning of this conflict Russia had a very small military, invaded with a small force and hoped for negotiations. The west seemed to supply weapons to Ukraine incrementally, never giving them the power to be dominant. Just supplying enough to keep them from being overrun, just enough to keep them hoping that they could prevail. 

It has been more tanks, Himar missiles, Patriot missiles, Storm-shadows, the hope of F-16 jets and the latest is long range missiles, in the hope of striking into Russia.

At this point, none of this will save Ukraine, Russia has now become much stronger than 2 years ago, both militarily and economically, they will not lose this conflict. Ukraine can only incur more death and destruction.

While many political leaders in Washington still believe that the death and destruction in Ukraine is worth it, if Russian's are dieing, it is a cynical and a horror of foreign policy and it is becoming transparent to the rest of the world.

While Russia has been restrained, strikes inside Russia will not promote Ukrainian victory, but may very well unleash the need for Russia to end this through all out war. Russia has been degrading Ukraine's air defenses. It has been mostly fighting with long range artillery and stand off missiles and seems to have unlimited amounts of ammunition, probably still using it old cold war hoard. 

I suspect that it still has a massive hoard of cold war aerial bombs and with its air force intact and Ukraines air defenses dwindling, one can only imagine what an all out bombing campaign of Ukraine would entail. Is it necessary for every last Ukrainian to die before the west admits that it has embarked on a misguided and foolish adventure that may be the worst foreign policy decision since WW2.





 

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