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Friday, April 26, 2024

Most prevalent word describing Ukraine, Collapse.

 RUSSIA ADVANCING ALL ALONG FRONT

UKRAINE IS REACHING LIMITS OF RESISTANCE



While the U.S. and NATO are sending more arms and money to Ukraine, the reality is that the Ukrainian army is exhausted and losing its ability to resist the relentless Russian pressure. 

More arms and ammunition are of course needed, but no one seems to understand the tribulations of the Ukrainian army in this conflict. Many of the brigades are operating at 30% or 40% of full strength. Most of the present soldiers have been in unending conflict for over 2 years. Many have not had leave to visit family and the prospects of them being cycled out of conflict are poor. 

Recently Ukraine lowered the conscription age to 25, many expect that to soon be lowered to 20. They are attempting to have other EU nations round up and send back their nationals of service age, that may be contrary to many laws in the region. The reality is that they are having a problem finding new recruits, many consider going to the front a death sentence. Part of the new mobilization law was a provision to fix the time one had to serve in combat, that provision was deleted and now many believe they will be forced to serve until they die. This provision has had a demoralization effect on their military.

The conditions for Ukraine, on this battlefield are relentless artillery shelling, without respite. Often unable to go outside during the day, because of large numbers of drones either attacking them personally or sending targeting information to the artillery. They often have very little direct contact with Russian soldiers.

Most of the Ukrainian defenses are in urban areas, at one time large buildings were the preferred defensive positions, now with the use of glide bombs, Russia is able to drop these weapons from 40 miles east of the conflict line and accurately target these defenses. These bombs carry from 500 to 3000 lbs of high explosives and a single bomb will take down any large building. Ariel videos of these detonations show a huge shock wave going 100's of yards in every direction. The effects on any human are concussions that may have permanent effects and most likely make them helpless for sometime. The term "shell shocked" in today's battlefield cannot be compared to WW1 were the term originated.

Politicians in both Ukraine and NATO continue to insist Ukraine soldiers carry on, they have been very effective, but they are at their limit. Ukraine can not prevail in this conflict, but  many more can die and be damaged for the rest of their lives.

We have seen a process of escalation, more weapons, longer range. all with the hope that Russia will give up and sue for peace. It is a delusional assumption, decades of demonization of Russia and blustering about the dismembering of the country have convinced the leadership and the people of Russia that they are in an existential fight for their existence, and they are. Russia has been getting a steady stream of recruits of approximately 30,000 new volunteers a month. This is going to go on no matter who is in charge of the country. Russia will fight this battle even if it takes a nuclear confrontation, it is assured and it has been assured even before this conflict started.

Whether the hope of the west is to at least get past the elections or if they really want an all out war with Russia, remains to be seen, but the reality of the battlefield is consuming several generations of Ukrainian men all to preserve the dreams of western warmongers, who have no compassion or empathy for those forced to fight for their Ukraine project.




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