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Friday, October 4, 2024

War with Iran will have global consequences.

 EVERYONE HAS INTERESTS IN EXPANDING WAR

SOME VIEW PRESENT,  LAST CHANCE TO DAMAGE IRAN



The stakes with the very possible Iran war could not be higher. This conflict would not be limited to Israel, Iran and possibly the U.S., but will reveal the the strategic interests of Russia, China and others.

An attack on Iran, long wanted by some in the United States and some in Israel will not be just a one time attempt to destabilise Iran, but will inevitably lead to a far more extensive conflict.

Israel has been concerned by Iran's nuclear program for years, it may feel it is now time to damage that program, and set it back for many years. They may feel this may be their last opportunity.  They are also threatening to attack Iran's oil producing capabilities. This will trigger oil insecurity around the world and bring China and many others, who depend on mideast oil, to feel they need to become engaged. 

At the same time, Iran is a pivotal player in the new economic order that makes it a strategic geographic player and may entice Russia to also feel their economic future is threatened.

The plans for the United States to attack Iran shortly after the Iraq invasion were aborted due to concerns of economic and global conflict. Many of the same advocates, like John Bolton and Lindsey Graham have been hoping to attack Iran in every administration since. The much heralded papers at the Mar A Lago raid had to do with a proposed attack on Iran. Much of this may be an attempt to short circuit the ability of the BRICS group from implementing their new economic alliance.

Internally, Iran is conflicted in actually possessing nuclear weapons. Many of the religious leaders feel it is an immoral proposition. If Iran really were on a fast track to nuclear weapons, they would have had them long ago. Their people are well educated and have more capabilities than Pakistan or North Korea. It is actually a wonder if they do not have nuclear weapons. 

If they do not have nuclear weapons now, they are by no means the same military power that they were 20 years ago, they have become far more capable. While many feel that they are root of all the problems in the region, they have been very carefully restrained in their responses to Israeli attacks. Much of this has been due to counselling from their proposed partners, China and Russia to not engage in a major war that could disrupt their economic future.

At present everyone is waiting for Israel's response to Iran's missile attack, which despite the reports, demonstrated that Iran does have the capability to seriously damage Israel. Israel is being encouraged by some of its U.S. supporters to attack their nuclear facilities and oil instructure. If they do, the game will be on and no one can predict were it will end.



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