Ukraine setbacks continue.

  MEETING CANCELLED AS UKRAINE DEFENSES FALTER

WESTERN RESOLVE LIKELY NEAR END

The much heralded meeting in Germany has been postponed or possibly cancelled. The decision came when Joe Biden cancelled trip to Germany because of the domestic weather crisis. It comes at time when it appears some in the alliance are becoming weary of their support for the war.

Germany is now in its second year of recession with no end in sight. Its manufacturing sector, the strongest in the EU is floundering under the shortages and high cost of energy. Plants are closing and some are relocating to more affordable energy cost countries. It is unlikely that Germany can sustain its support for Ukraine.

On the eastern front the Russians are moving west at an increasing rate. It is now a pattern that Russia is able to encircle Ukrainian strongholds, which also seem to be in a pattern of fighting until surrounded, then being forced to surrender or die. Whether these are decisions from Kiev or Washington is  anyone's guess, but it is a strategy that has resulted in great loss of equipment and manpower. It seems the planners do not understand strategic withdrawal, that allows their troops to fight another day.

We have watched as this has been repeated in Maripol, Bakemut, Advika and recently in Vuhledar were 1500 troops were either captured or killed. At present there are several areas on the verge of encirclement. Fighting rather than escaping, when that result becomes evident is just poor strategy.

Without some sort of miracle, Ukraine can not last much longer. It is a reality of war that hopes and spin cannot overcome overwhelming firepower and troops in a long term conflict. Ukraine is in a position that winning is not possible and its best hope of any future is to deal with that reality, the sooner the better.