NO PEACE ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON
WARS MAY CONTINUE FOR REST OF YEAR
The latest peace proposal was rejected by Ukraine. It seems the Russians anticipated that this would be the answer and gave little credence to the plan.
The plan was similar to other offers in the past, Ukraine would step back from Donbas, UN peacekeepers would mange the confrontation line. Ukraine would have UN supervised elections and then would agree to a neutral military status with no NATO or other military alliance. That is the basically what has been on the table since Anchorage, but now future Ukraine would be smaller.
We can expect that the EU does not support such a plan. In fact they seem to still be talking about going to war with Russia. The UK, Germany, Norway and Finland have upped their Civil defense ads attempting to prepare their populations for attacks from Russia. This week Finland attempted a civil defense drill by ordering 2000 residents to show up at a mass shelter and it seems 100 actually showed up. it seems the population does not feel as threatened as the politicians. They claim that Russia is at a stalemate in Ukraine. but must prepare for an attempt to invade all of Europe.
Finland's ruling class is concerned that since they joined NATO and agreed to US bases in their country, Russia is building bases expected to house 70,000 troops on their border. They are also perplexed that Russia has restricted economic trade and generally ended decades of economic and social interaction. No one seems to understand that military alliances pose a threat to their neighbors.
The political landscape of Germany is changing with big loses for the present government, much of it fueled by the present governments talk of war with Russia and major efforts at rearmament. The UK and France are also encouraging Germany to rearms, Dejavu all over again.
Iran demonstrated a new anti-ship missile that should be warning concerning escalation. They have also made it clear that they will step up enforcement of the control of the strait.
Cooling temperatures in the gulf may make the possible ground action look more enticing. No sign of peace anywhere, escalation is more likely.
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