No end to either conflict, Bond market screaming.

 ENDING WAR ONLY HOPE TO SAVE ECONOMY

WE ARE ALL GOING DOWN

 

It is clear that Trump would like to put the Ukraine war on hold and focus on destroying Iran. Not an end, just a pause, to allow Ukraine to rearm and recover before the winter. Russia has made it clear, there will be no ceasefire or let up until a final real negotiation is consummated. 

 

Europe wants war with Russia, as long as they can suck the US into doing the heavy lifting. Very difficult, while bogged down in the Persian gulf, especially with shortages of precision weapons and an already over stretched NAVY. 

 

Netanyahu will not let Trump let up on Iran, Trump is most likely going to go all in with a ground and air campaign and he may have to do it sooner rather than later. Reserve forces have been called up and are now on there way to somewhere in the gulf. They were told it will be for a minimum of 1 year. A serious ground operation would take 6 months of preparation, Trump does not have that much time or enough forces, it will be a deadly gamble for all involved.

 

Trump claims that if Iran submits it will be a great nation, prosperous and a leader in the region. Iran like Russia understands that if they submit they will become Libya, there will be no submission by either. 

 

At the same time another fight is brewing and that is high energy prices which are being manipulated daily, but as soon as actual shortages become the issue, there is no ceiling or manipulation possible. 

 

Then there is the bond market, today a 30 year is at 5.46 %, 10 year 5.16% and the 5 yr 5.02 %. indicating that trust in the US financial system is on shaky ground.  This is going to make the deficit and debt problem a real issue very soon. In fact, this could be the real battle that moves to the forefront before any military conflict can be resolved.