Crunch time for Middle East.

STANDOFF ON MANY FRONTS

NO SIGN OF COMPROMISE FROM ISRAEL 

This week we witnessed the recognition of a Palestine state by the major powers of Europe, Netanyahu's response was a quick and definite NO. This is sure to be followed by economic sanctions and other efforts directed at Israel. The reality is that the formation of a Palestinian state is far more complicated today than it would have been 3 years ago. At the same time, world opinion both from the middle east region and the majority of the world has solidified in opposition to Israel's polices in GAZA and its proposed policies in the west bank.

We hear more everyday about Israel's plan for a "Greater Israel". This would call for the expansion of Israel to include GAZA, the west Bank, Sinai peninsula, parts of Jordan, Syria and Lebanon. This plan has been voiced by members of the Israeli government and never denied. Some even include further expansion, if this not a real Israeli proposal, it should be made clear.

Then we are again back to Iran, it is no secret that Israel has attempted to instigated a possible war with Iran and the United States for over 30 years. So far, every president has rejected going to war with Iran, the pressure is coming again in the coming weeks. In the negotiations about nuclear enrichment, originally the deal was to limit enrichment to what is needed for nuclear energy. When it appeared that Iran was on the verge of accepting that deal, the anti was raised to end all nuclear enrichment, placing Iran at the mercy of outside sources for their nuclear energy and desalination projects, a limitation that has not been placed on any other country. This was pushed by Netanyahu, who knew it was a affront to Iran's national sovereignty and could not be agreed to. These negotiations ended when Israel attacked and assassinated the leadership in Iran. Some believe that Israel hoped the U.S. would then step in and destroy Iran.

This week Iran made it clear that they will not accept having no ability to be independent for their nuclear programs. They also will not allow IAEA inspectors who they believe, and are probably correct, that these inspectors identified Iran's nuclear scientists and residences for assassination. We can expect this will lead for calls for military action against Iran.

Some months ago Iran entered into a mutual cooperation deal with Russia and it is reported that Russia offered them a mutual defense pack which was rejected by Iran. Iran it seems does not want to become dependent on Russia and believing that they have the resources for their own defense.  

Since the June war, Russia has made available to Iran,  new jets, S400 anti aircraft systems and electronic counter measures, all defensive weapons. China has also been furnishing Iran with updated weapons. We can expect all this knowledge is made available to Israel via U.S. satellite intelligence and every day Iran become more able to counter an attack. Both China and Russia consider Iran a pivotal player in their future commerce plans and while they may not directly militarily intervene they have a huge stake in an independent Iran. They also could have a strong ability to enable compromise from Iran.

In the June war it is clear that Trump did not come to Israel's aid and Israel suffered some severe damage to its infrastructure and depleted its defensive missiles. Again, there are reports that Netanyahu told Trump to end this or they would resort to a nuclear attack on Iran. We then had the attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, a prearranged ceasefire negotiated by gulf countries with Iran and Trump declared victory. We can now expect, particularly since Israel's position is now more precarious, that we will see a replay or attempted replay. It is possible that Netanyahu cannot politically back down and it is not clear if Trump will commit to war with Iran. Can Netanyahu trust Trump to come to Israel's rescue?

Again, like in the Ukraine conflict, Trumps power is in saying no, rather than yes, to military assistance. Every day the pressure for Israel will get more pressing and also the pressure on Trump to promise assistance. The real danger for Israel is that Trump will say yes, but then say no.

While nuclear weapons against Iran would not directly affect Israel from fallout, they are unusable against other regional powers, one would expect that if Israel uses nuclear weapons, they will be attached conventionally from all sides. It is doubtful they could last a week, even with U.S. assistance. Most believe Israel has a closing window on being able to attack Iran.