Historic world order realignment inevitable.

 PEACEFUL TRANSITION, OR WAR?

CHANGES HAPPENING AT AN ACCELERATED PACE

Inevitable changes are underway, the question is, can there be a peaceful and mutually beneficial transition.  In the last week we witnessed India decide that if given a choice of refraining from buying oil from Russia or suffering increased tariff's from the U.S., it chose to keep buying energy from Russia. If this policy did not work with India it will not work with China or Brazil. I suspect that this will be the end of punitive tariffs as a bargaining tool for political purposes. 

At the same time, we see that the end of the dollar being the world reserve currency. Much of the world is transitioning to a system that settles transactions in 7 seconds and reduces costs. They can then periodically settle accounts with gold. It is expected that in the future there may be gold backed currency that is independent of national origins. While many like to portray that this is an attack on the US it is in realty the natural reaction to the irresponsible US policy of currency debasement. The dollar no longer is considered "As good as Gold".

We also are witnessing the crisis of "Democratic Socialism" in the western world. Massive debt, loss of manufacturing capacity, a weak work ethic and the inability to sustain the promised social benefits. This coupled with a policy of unlimited expenditures in an effort to rule the world is all unsustainable. Reforms and changes are either going to be by self will and consensus, or collapse and limited choices. 

We see that China, who is portrayed as a threat to US, is finding more countries willing to cooperate in a mutually beneficial economic atmosphere. China has been outperforming the west in its diplomacy. India is a perfect example, a country with a border with Russia and China, a mutually beneficial trade cooperation is viewed as better than an adversarial relationship. The same situation is growing with Japan, South Korea and even Australia. The much anticipated attack on Taiwan is not as likely as some would like to advertise, it too is in a similar situation.

Western Europe is failing, economically and politically. Its refusal to reverse course on the Ukraine war has put them on the road to economic ruin. There once favorable access to long contracts of Russian energy has disappeared, by their own choice, with no alternative in sight. This coupled with unrestrained immigration and short sighted environmental policies have place them in a precarious situation. It will take a change of political leadership to give any hope for a stable future.

These changes will not be avoided, but it can be a peaceful transition to a more realistic world order. The US. is in the enviable position of being shielded by two oceans, a potentially self sufficient economy with most of the needed resources. A loss of the world reserve currency will bring painful but needed fiscal responsibility back to the federal government. It will also require a military withdrawal from much of its foreign presence.  It will require a new reality of diplomacy and mutual respect in its dealings with other nations.

Quietly, some are envisioning a new era with spheres of influence, cooperating for  mutually economic prosperity. It is possible, but difficult, as there are forces that would rather continue confrontation and desire for hegemony rather than recognize mutual respect and others self interest. I expect we will witness which way all this will evolve.