Escalating trade war, who will be damaged more?

 IF CONTINUED IT WILL LEAD TO WORLD WAR

OIL PRICES RISE 5% ON WORD OF NEW SANCTIONS

It seems that Trump somehow believed that Russia was now ready to implement a ceasefire and at least temporarily end hostilities in Ukraine. One has to wonder where that idea came from, as Russia has made it clear from even before the war started what's its goals are. It has been communicated clearly and consistently for near 3 years, if you can read and listen you know what has to happen for this conflict to end. Of course the west understands Russia's position, but still believes it can threaten, intimidate, and even cause an economic crisis inside Russia. So far, it has not happened and ironically western Europe, who now has the highest energy costs in the world and whose economies and domestic politics are teetering are attempting to engage in an economic escalation. 

Russia has predictably ruled out a ceasefire that is intended to rearm and refortify Ukraine and then continue the fighting in an effort to defeat Russia. This is either going to end with a understanding of Russia's goals or it will end on the battlefield.

One must remember the two most important necessities in life are food and staying warm in winter. I suspect Russia will have both, long after the rest have succumbed to both realties. Of course, the neo aristocrats in the EU will be dining high and life for them will change little, but there will be consequences.

These new sanctions, supposedly on Russian oil companies, are in fact more sanctions on India and China. Both these nations still have a clear understanding, due to their historical dealings with British empire, that it is still the same recipe.  Any cut in India's oil production will immediately effect the cost or even the lack of oil it sends to the EU. I do not believe India is going to sacrifice its economic health and put the EU first.

The big losers are going to be the EU and then Ukraine, which may soon find that Russia has been in fact restrained in its use of military power. Vital transportation targets have been spared, as has the government buildings in Kiev. In fact, Russia is not legally in an all out war with Ukraine, many in Russia are calling for an out mobilization and a decisive end to this conflict.

Objectively the west cannot defeat Russia, even with NATO engagement because China cannot let Russia loose.  China has tens of millions of young men, if needed, and the manufacturing capacity to swamp the production of the west.

That leaves only nuclear war and Russia will not submit to being defeated by any means. It is indeed a standoff where someone needs to take the first step in ending this and it seems there is no none.

Quietly, much of this is the U.S. hoping to support and defend the dollar, all while increasing deficits and debt and using the dollar as a weapon on the world, all counter productive. It can be expected that great de-coupling in world trade is now in sight. A world with two separate trading blocks. One with 1 billion and one with 6 billion citizens.

It could be a peaceful transition or it may end it everyone's destruction.