Gaza progress?

 PHASE 1 AGREEMENT

HOSTAGE AND PRISONER EXCHANGE, CEASEFIRE

It seems that an agreement has been made on the first part of a Gaza peace deal. Hamas will release the hostages, both dead and alive, and Israel will release Palestinian prisoners. Israel will stop military action and withdraw to a prearranged position. There is still some uncertainty about what prisoners will be released. While this is an agreement, it has not yet happened.

There is concern that as soon the hostages are released, Israel will resume its offensive. This has happened before, but it may be a different situation as the world is focused on this crisis and it may be difficult to pull off a false flag or blame a breakdown on Hamas. There are lot of parties involved in this process and is the best hope of success so far.

The ultimate sticking point is going to be security and enforcement. A situation where Israel is out of Gaza and security and order is maintained by a third party. The makeup of the governing authority will be another problem. If this deal evolves into a resumption of the situation of a Gaza prison, it will not last. We can assume there are forces that will not want this to be a success.

Then there is still the possibility of an impending Israeli attack on Iran. That would lead to a suspension of negotiations as war would create a dangerous environment for the negotiators. Extended negotiations will also make resumption of the Iran war difficult and most believe that as time goes on, Iran will be more prepared to defend against an attack.

It is doubtful that this situation can be resolved quickly, the major questions for a long term solution are ahead and they could take the rest of the year. This is going to put Israel into a dilemma about how to proceed. Hopefully it will end with a satisfactory Gaza plan and the end of hopes for an Iran war.