Israeli election, Revealing, dismal future for minority voters.

 CLAIMS OF ARAB CITIZENS STEALING ELECTION

NETANYAHU LIKELY TO REMAIN "KING OF ISRAEL" 

 

While the votes are still being counted, it is clear that no candidate will win a majority with its present coalition. So one side or the other will need to get some part of the others coalition to switch sides. The other alternative would be to add one of the Arab citizen blocks to break the deadlock. Both side have indicated that will never happen.

 

Netanyahu is demanding that the Arab citizens votes be investigated, claiming irregularities including "illegal software" used to get out the vote. 

 

The Arabs seem to have won between 16 and 19 seats of 120 seats, giving them the opportunity to have some say in future decisions. The narrative coming out from politician indicates that their future is bleak rather than promising, It should be expected that they will now be targeted for retaliation for actually engaging in the democratic process and making life more difficult for the ruling class. From what is being said it may be the last election that they will be allowed to participate. 

 

The only difference between the leading candidates is that the opposition would strive to improve the image of Israel to the rest of the world. Actual policy seems to be the same.

 

Trump has weighed in insisting that extremist Ben Gvir not be  part of any future government, that may not be mathematically impossible, unless he actually agrees to not participate, an unlikely prospect. 

 

We can expect the deal making and maneuvering to continue and Netanyahu is the most skilled and experienced  in getting what he wants. Is he the warrior King the population has been waiting for all these years?

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hoping to gain advantage, while talking peace.

 RELYING ON TECHNOLOGY TO NEUTRALIZE IRAN

WE WILL SEE WHAT 6 MONTHS OF PROBING HAS PRODUCED

 

With elections soon to be in the past, we can expect another round of hostilities with Iran. It may be the last one, as it is doubtful that another major offensive can be mustered. Economic conditions may very well override military action after this next go around.

 

While we have heard over 6 months of new deals, expected collapse of Iran and a host of narratives it was all a delaying tactic to figure out how to destroy Iran without being destroyed or bring9ng about global economic collapse. 

 

We have witnessed repeated probes, small attacks and jets running near Iranian airspace, all in an attempt to gain intelligence as to the location of their capabilities and also a hope to develop counter measures to neutralize the accuracy of their expected response. 

 

Iranian responses during the war were devastating to US bases and radar in the region, coupled with a shortage of interceptors, brought about the pause in hostilities under the pretext of negotiations. It was more about surviving and repositioning to fight another day.  

 

Every time Iran turns on it radar for its air defenses it become identifiable and vulnerable.  There are indications Iran has taken enormous punishment while protecting its air defenses,  saving them for the final conflict.

 

The US and Israel have been surprised by the accuracy of Iran's missiles it is much improved from the first go around in 2025 and we can expect they are hoping to find a way to interfere with this accuracy. No one doubts that Russia and China have aided Iran in perfecting this accuracy and also improving their air defenses. Much like Ukraine it is an opportunity to test equipment and gain intelligence on their opponents.

 

It is likely the much anticipated attack on Iran has not happened because the US has not been confident that it has overcome the problems with an all out war with Iran, if they had it would have happened long ago. 

 

It seems that military leaders in both Israel and the US have been less confident than their leaders, but economic and political considerations may now make a decision even without that confidence.

 

 

 

 

Will foreign policy change after election?

 ELECTIONS UNDERWAY IN ISRAEL

DID IDF DEFY NETANYAHU? 

 

Elections are underway in Israel, results should be available by this evening here. It is unlikely to make any difference in foreign policy, but it may indicate that some are hoping for an effort to restore the Israeli image. 

 

There are reports from many places that the IDF refused to attack Iran by order of Netanyahu, it would have caused an internal  crisis for being an election ploy. I am sure we will hear more about this, depending on the election results.

 

Big meeting in Tehran yesterday between Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, supposedly to encourage Iran to put limits on Yemen, I suspect they talked about much more, the upcoming escalation could destroy the economies of all of them. While Yemen is allied in many way with Iran, they are not Iran's proxy, only an understanding between Saudi Arabia and Yemen will end this current conflict. Saudi Arabia started this current outbreak of the over a decade of fighting,  Yemen wants an end of the  blockade by the Saudi's. 

 

One week to the midterm elections,  we can expect a resumption in the war with Iran and all the accompanying consequences, no matter the outcome. The only thing that can stop the next round is push back from the gulf countries or Israel. 

 

We can expect with the elections over, there will be little restraint by Trump for the reminder of his term. Expect executive orders, lawsuits with drawn out legal disputes, but not really any change of foreign policy direction. 

 

Tomorrow, everyone will start talking about 2028.  

 

 

 

 

 

If Russia succeeds, Ukraine mineral leases will be void.

 UK'S 100 YEAR LEASES WORTHLESS

SAME FOR FRANCE AND US

 

While the Ukraine/Russia war continues, the end result is beginning to be in sight. It appears that Russia will have successfully incorporated at least 4 oblasts and Crimea into Russia. These regions are made up of majority Russian people and also the regions with the most natural resources. These regions are also the industrial regions that will be part of the Russian federation. 

 

In early 2025 the UK signed a 100 year agreement concerning access to the mineral resources. this led to Trump saying me too and signing a similar agreement. It can be assumed that since Zelensky was not constitutionally a legal elected President according to Ukraine's constitution, the agreements will be void even if Ukraine should retain those areas. We can assume Russia will never consider those agreements, if they are in control of those regions.

 

Zelensky won the 2019 election and was supported by the UK, the US supported Poroshinko, much of this was  jockeying for who would have control after the war. It is looking like neither will be able to defend their long term rights to Ukrainian minerals, at least not where most of the minerals exist.

 

Russia's resources will also not be in the West's control and may not even be available, while Germany and others are talking about purchasing Russian energy, it is not clear that Russia will be able to satisfy their demand, as it has long term commitments to its new buyers in China and India.

 

It could be expected that any agreement for Russian energy will hinge on the EU  assuming the cost of repairing the pipelines and maintaining them in the future. Russia is in the process of building pipelines supplying energy to the east and south. 

 

Control of Middle East oil is still not clear,  or if the war escalates, will there be any oil out of the region for some time. Can the US continue to control the oil out of Iraq and Syria without a massive rebuilding of bases in the region?  Does Israel really have the capacity to take the place of the US in the region? Can Israel expect the same same level of support from the US in the future? We can expect changes in US support in the area, due to economic and political considerations at home.

 

Both the Ukraine and Iran war seem to be turning points in the present world order, the hope is that it can be accomplished without destroying the economies and also the populations of the globe. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Elections less relevant, Future more baked in than ever.

 US FUTURE TO BE DETERMINED BY PAST POOR DECISIONS

LOSING  ABILITY TO CONTROL FUTURE 

 

With elections coming in less 2 weeks, it is becoming clear that future options are increasingly limited. Much of what happens to the country will be determined by the consequences of past decisions. While we will see domestic policy whipsawed from right to left, the real future is going to be limited by massive debt, a loss of self reliance and decisions made and realities outside the country.

 

The emphasis on controlling global economics and politics with sanctions and military power is coming to an end.  The latest sanctions on Russia is a good example, most of the rest of the world yawned and ignored them. Many in Europe are questioning if it's following the US on the Ukraine project was a good idea, with opposition parties are looking to Russia for energy salvation.

 

With a national debt approaching $41 Trillion and growing by the day, there is little money available for real infrastructure investment or more social programs and of course another $500 billion in anticipated military spending.

 

Government corruption has accelerated and now is more blatant than ever.  It is not a party thing, it is endemic to the government in general. There is no real option at the voting booth to change the direction of these serious issues.

 

While many hoped that Trump would indeed "Drain the Swamp"  it is becoming obvious that the swamp has overcome and actually incorporated him into the swamp. It would be naive to beleave that there is anyone on the horizon who will do better. 

 

While progress has been made in border control, taxes and some regulation reduction, the debt has spiraled, the deficits increased and war as a political tool is now the permanent way of life. It is clear that there will be no change of direction in managing the serious problems, only collapse and rebuilding, will be the option.

 

The upcoming resumption of war with Iran may be the impetus for the beginning of that collapse, it seems that it is now inevitable, no matter which party is in power. The US will not be able to afford to rebuild the bases in the gulf and most likely is destined to withdraw from many of the 750 bases in the world. While that is a good thing, it should have been made by conscious thoughtful decisions, not be the incoming necessity.

 

If you look at the composition of both parties, there is no consensus on ending any wars,  the democrats are already fuming on any suggestion of ending the Ukraine war., without destroying Russia. It seems we are much in the same boat as Ukraine, we will continue in war, until it is no longer economically and physically possible.

 

 

 

Russia agrees to talks, later, after elections.

 ZELENSKY AGREES TO GIVE UP TERRITORY

BIBI PROMISES MORE WAR WITH IRAN 

 

It seems there will not be any any election season surprises. No peace in Ukraine nor election eve war in Iran. It appears Bibi still wants war with Iran even before the elections to help his election chances, while Trump feels more war will be negative for the Republicans.  Putin, smiling, has pledged to talks with Ukraine. but not until the middle of next month, even with Zelensky admitting he will agree to give up eastern Ukraine. 

 

With less than a week until the Israeli election. Bibi does tapes with him on the phone with Trump promising more war with Iran. It appears more war with Iran is central for Bibi to win the election. Trump on the other hand hopes to continue with the narrative that peace is at hand both in Iran and Ukraine, hoping for a last minute election miracle.  

 

We can only assume that Putin is not willing to count on election season posturing and will wait to see what the narrative is after the elections or the actual policy. 

 

Iran understands that it will be more war, no matter the election results, talks and negotiations are just window dressing for Trump to appear that he really want a peace deal,  when there is no peace deal on the horizon.  

 

With no more elections in the near future, it will be back to war for sure in Iran and maybe even in Ukraine.  

 

 

 

 

Both Russia and Iran understand the plan.

 NO CEASEFIRE AND NO OPEN STRAIT 

ONLY LONG TERM RESOLUTION ACCEPTABLE 

 

It is clear that it is increasingly difficult for the US to be engaged in 2 simultaneous wars. While many would like to see an end to both wars, there are of course those who want to win both wars. We see Trump offering concessions to Russia, much of it in a hope to bring about a ceasefire. Russia also understands that Ukraine is in a very vulnerable position and he also understands by experience that any ceasefire will be used to enhance Ukraine ability to continue. There will continue to be glad handing and offers to help the US domestic situation and Trump hopes to win over Russia and peel away its support for Iran and China. Putin also understands that the war will continue until a comprehensive settlement is reached that will end the war permanently, not just another pause until next round. 

 

Iran is in a similar situation, all the propositions attempt to encourage Iran to open up the strait for talks, but also understands that economic sanctions and a goal for its destruction is still the plan of both Trump and Netanyahu.  Netanyahu wants Iran reduced to a failed state that it can periodically feel free to mow the grass and dominate with military power. Trump hopes to gain control of all the oil in the gulf and use it as leverage to maintain US supremacy.  

 

While these schemes have worked in the past, it has been replayed too often to be effective.  Peace is possible, but only long term comprehensive deals that ensure peace for the long term future. Ukraine, the EU, and many in the US are still not ready to admit that is possible. 

 

As for Iran, they understand that their existence is at stake and they are willing to fight on, if necessary. The consequences will very badly damage all involved and the global economic system.  

 

I suspect the war with Ukraine will continue until Ukraine cannot physically continue. The Iran war will also continue and may very well change the global power structure permanently. 

 

Both could have been avoided, both could have been settled, but it is just another sad example of the lust for power and what belongs to others. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Democrats do not offer credible alternatives.

 POSSIBLE TEMPORARY WINS ARE NOT SUSTAINABLE

CONSERVATIVE TRENDS WILL NOT BE DERAILED

 

The predictions in this election season are that the Democrats will have substantial comeback from their 2024 losses. While it may be true, it will be caused by a lack of enthusiasm and disarray presently on the more conservative side. It will not be from an actual embracing of the democrats agenda. The trends in politics seem to be a two steps forward 1 step backward kind of pattern and this year may be a step backward, but the trend will not be deterred in the long run. 

 

We saw the 1994 massive move to the Republicans followed by moves back until 2010 with the tea party movement. The pressure against a real conservative movement is present in both parties and new movements are quickly misdirected and corrupted by the deep seated powers in the parties. Often the actual movements are reincorporated into the existing power base and real change is slowed, but it has not been destroyed.

 

While Democrats seem to be now in a position for renewal of power, it is not likely to have much sustenance. Social Democracy is dying not only in the US but in western Europe, not because people don't want more benefits, but because the well is dry the debt too big and just as the reality of the Soviet Union, it will become a relic of the past. The transition as to what will replace the present system is not yet clear, but it is not possible to continue on the present path. 

 

The US faces the same kind of dilemma as the Soviet System faced in 1990, it was a decade of disaster followed by a rebuilding, the same may be true for the US. Real communism is dead everywhere except North Korea and Democratic socialism is dying as well. 

 

While it seems that Trump has been reincorporated by the US war machine and the Israel lobby, his former followers will need to chalk it up to political experience and the acknowledgment of the realty of deep seated forces against change.  Just as we have witnessed the end of the massive deep power in the Soviet Union much of it having to do with the death of the original revolutionaries and the slow transitions in China from communism to some sort of hybrid capitalism the same can happen here. 

 

The transitions are safest if they are slow but steady, as we witnessed the nonviolent transition in Russia and even in China, the reality of the unsustainable path of the present situation, will hopefully  change grounded in our sound constitution and renewal of moral foundations.

 

The Social Democratic movement that prevailed in Western Europe and the US has reached its end because it is unsustainable due to debt, demographics and economic reality. An orderly transition is possible if we are willing to acknowledge that a transition is inevitable.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

AI and Genetic engineering: Beware of the Brave new world.

NOT YET REALITY, BUT NOT FICTION

ARE WE ABOUT TO NEED TO DEFINE WHAT IS HUMAN?

There is much talk about the possibilities of Artificial Intelligence. The advances have been moving at a lightning pace. We now see robots that are beginning to look and act human. There is talk of them having the ability to LEARN, to express emotions, talk and adapt to new challenges. There is talk of them replacing humans for many menial tasks and maybe eventually not so menial.  It seems there is much interest and financial investment going into this research.  Without a doubt there are plans to substitute humans with these new entities for some occupations and some tasks.

Are we about to begin to debate what is the definition of a human. Is it an entity that is flesh and blood that stands erect, that has all the features of what we recognize today. Or is the definition of human far more complex, the ability to reason, adapt to changes, engage in abstract thought and put those thoughts into material creations. To have emotions, human instinct like survival and fear and hope, maternal instincts, family instincts and such traits are far more complicated .

Now consider, why spend vast sums on artificial intelligence that will need to be built, repaired and maintained. When we are now about to enter an era where it may be possible to engineer a living being or entity that will be self maintaining and reproducible.  Since the breakthrough of CRISPR in genetic engineering or gene editing it is becoming possible to modify embryos with a specific purpose or result in mind. In fact, it is reported that China has already had twin girls born that have been genetically modified. While this example has been condemned by China and others as unethical, if it can be done, it will be done. 

Now this example supposedly had to do with attempting to suppress the ability to contract HIV, but it is going to be possible to do much more. So imagine what can be possible. What if it should be decided that if scientists take unfertilized embryos and alter them that they no longer have the characteristics of humans that would fit into the accepted definition of what is human. Would some society accept that such entities, while they may have the physical appearance of humans, actually are not, but are now a new entity that could possibly even be patented. If all the emotions, instincts and behavioral characteristics of human are stripped out, then science could eventually make many special purpose entities that would easily replace humans to do much of the labor needed to keep society going.

There could be entities for the purpose of combat or police work. Household entities that could maintain all the needed choirs in every home. There could be entities that could act as surrogates if impregnated  in vitro with human fertilized embryos. The possibilities are endless.

These entities would also provide a endless source for organs and fetal tissue now hoped to be able extend life.

The maturing process could be shortened to become useful in a quicker time and they could be fully reproducible, no manufacturing, no maintenance. They could be engineered to have a specific length of useful time to function.

Such advancements would fulfill all the requirements of a sustainable planet. Many are already accepting the idea that the planets population should be downsized by between 1/2 and 1/10 of the current population. These new entities could replace much of the population and would not require or need near the resources that humans now use. The possibilities are soon to be endless.

So, while all this is now not reality, it is not science fiction, because it is going to be possible. This research IS going on now and the interest in downsizing the population is now an open topic of discussion.

We must believe that being as a god is enough enticement for such research to become an obsession for some that will not be controlled.

Originally published 11/15/22

MIT has released an article how they are anticipating the ability to produce humanoid bodies for research and body parts. I expect this is already going on somewhere.

3/31/2025

There are no happy endings in sight.

 THERE MAY NOT EVEN BE ANY WINNERS

ALTERNATIVES ARE BAD OR WORSE 

 

The global political situation is the direst since 1939, we are without a doubt at a pivotal decision time. Within a very short time the future direction will be decided and no matter what that may be, it is possibly without any positive outcomes.

 

The Ukraine Russia conflict drags on, I call it a conflict because it is not all out war. Real all out war will be something that no one can actually comprehend. Inept politicians boast of all out war, which just demonstrates the quality of leadership, particularly in the western world. This conflict may very well move to all out war and once underway possibly impossible to stop. 

 

European leaders still believe they can bring Russia to submit to their demands and  Ukraine hopes to drag in NATO to save their nation. It appears all opportunities for a negotiated settlement have passed and it will be only surrender by Ukraine or a massive European conflagration, most likely not contained within Europe.

 

The same goes for the Iran Israel US war, It has not been all out war. It has been attacks followed by responses and low grade continuing confrontation. It seems to be clear that the next escalation may become all out war. A war that will be fought until there is a decisive winner and a loser, similar to the end of WW2. Such a conclusion, no matter the winner, a capitulation by Iran or a US retreat from the region will have dire consequences for the globe. A Mideast economy decimated for years and a  world economy struggling to find any stability for a long time, plus the risk of expanding across the region and drawing in Russia and China.

 

It is clear that we are in the early stages of global war, much of the dispute is the challenge to existing order dominated by the US since WW2. The challenge to US dollar reserve status and the changing economic and political realities in today's world.

 

The reality is the US has devalued the purchasing ability of the dollar, due to irresponsible fiscal policy and it has allowed its manufacturing base, the source of real wealth creation, political and military power, to decline. It has refused to understand that the foundation of real power is no longer there, hence the threats, sanctions, bluster and now embroiled in 2 major conflicts with no winning way out, without resorting to nuclear conflagration, which will not be a win for anyone.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

West Asia transformation inevitable

 WEST'S POLICY BIGGEST UNIFYING FORCE

WILL TALK OF HOLY WAR IN US INSURE UNITY

 

Everyday we are witnessing a breakdown of the political situation in West Asia.  It is likely the alignment that began at the end of the 19th century is coming to an end. The Royal Navy began switching from coal to oil as its main fuel for its empire 's navy and the middle east was the most abundant source of that oil. The meddling began to keep the primitive political system in the region under their control and it resulted in the Nations and kingdoms it created by the end of WW2. This project seems to have been inherited by the United States after WW2. 

 

The policy has been to keep these tribes and nation divided and offer their military power as a stabilizing force. Any country that could offer some sort of leadership, Libya, Syria, and Iraq, was destroyed or compromised like Egypt and Turkey.  It is clear that political situation is coming to an end and the US no longer can maintain the promised stability. At present, there is a void of leadership in many of these countries and also a lingering divide of common purpose. That void is not going to remain forever and it will no longer be in the power of western governments to maintain the present system.

 

One option is to offer assistance in an orderly transition that will allow commerce and  interaction in a mutually beneficial way. The oil and other resources was always for sale and can be so in the future, without having ultimate control, this applies to other regions in the world, including Russia and China.

 

At present, that is not the course, today we hear Glenn Beck and other talk radio espousing holy war,  an anticipated war with Islam. We also hear it from the Secretary of WAR and other politicians. The hope of public execution of a Muslim man is just another subtle message to the world. The emphasis of the religion of political candidates is another. 

 

The immigration of large numbers of Muslims into the US and western Europe is a direct result of decades of destroying stable living conditions in the middle east in our quest for control. Many left those regions in a attempt to survive for themselves and their families.  I suspect that many would rather be home if it was safe and prosperous.

 

Islam is the one unifying force in the whole west Asia region, from north Africa to Pakistan and the rhetoric out of the west may very well be the most unifying force in that region in over 100 years. If this happens it will be direct result of the policies underway in the west.

 

Some of this is inspired by operatives of Israel and some of it a natural hostility to people or religions who are different, and of course decades of politically motivated propaganda.  

 

The US can no longer maintain control of the politics of the region and maybe also in other parts of the world, but we could offer the leadership of a new arrangement that has a basis is mutual respect and allowing others their natural right to self determination, something always espoused, but not always adhered to.

 

 

 

 

Saudi/Houthi conflict escalating into all out war.

 SAUDI INFRASTRUCTURE TAKING SERIOUS DAMAGE

RISK OF IMPACTING GLOBAL ECONOMY 

 

The Saudi Houthi conflict is becoming a major disruption in the region. The dispute dates back to 2015 when the Saudi's and coalition forces intervened in the Yemen civil war, they then imposed a blockade on Yemen that has caused humanitarian suffering for the past 11 years. The dispute was on hold until Saudi forces attacked the Yemen airport in an effort to kill some of its leadership. while the attack failed, the Houthi's retaliated and then a series of tit for tat exchanges led to a massive air attack by Saudi Arabia, now the Houthi's have been effective at taking out the infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, shutting  down air travel and damaging oil refineries and other oil facilities. The Houthi's now threaten to continue until Saudi Arabia ends the embargo on Yemen.

 

The ability of Saudi Arabia to produce and refine oil is now under threat and the other fear is that internal opposition may actually seek to overturn the existing regime. While the current leader has made reforms and ended Saudi support of international terrorism he has also made many enemies in the process of consolidating his power.  

 

It was likely not a good time to get involved in another round of fighting with the Houthi's who have actually become a far more sophisticated and organized adversary strengthened and hardened  by 11 years of blockade and fighting. 

 

There are indications that there was pressure by the US to attempt to weaken the Houthi's or to neutralize them before the upcoming offense against Iran. Now this conflict risks causing the depletion of limited munitions and air defense interceptors that will be necessary for the anticipated resumption of war with Iran. So far the Houthi's do not appear weaker and in fact may actually put the stability of Saudi Arabia at risk. 

 

It all adds up to a complication of the oil markets and threatens further instability of the gulf countries, with no end in sight.

 

 

 

 

Era of regime change is underway.

 FROM EUROPE TO THE MIDDLE EAST, MANY GOVERNMENTS ARE READY TO FALL

CHANGE WILL BE IRREVERSIBLE

 

While we see intense war in Ukraine and the middle east, there is change brewing in much of the world. In the middle east it is generally acknowledged that the US will not be rebuilding most of its military bases in the region. That will be followed with a natural evolution of many of the governments presently in power. The majority of the present governments are creations of the British Empire and they were held together by money and outside support. It may take many years for the money to be reestablished and the foreign powers are not going to be in a financial position to support these governments. They will revert back into their more natural foundations. 

 

We can expect a change of direction in the governments of France, Germany and the Uk, it is not clear what will follow, hopefully the upheaval can be an evolution rather than another European bloodbath. 

 

The US is likely to also experience another last gasp increase in Socialist policy, but it is no longer possible as there is no more money to borrow or tax and extreme measures could drive investment out of the country.   The US and its solid position in the western Hemisphere could be an island of prosperity and stability if it can overcome its lust for control and move to an era of cooperation and mutual respect. 

 

China's economic dominance in Asia will not be aborted, it will evolve into its own vast economic region. 

 

Massive change is coming and it is irreversible,  the dollar based economic system is in transition to a multi polar syetem that can be accommodated with mutual cooperation. It will demand an era of diplomacy and mutual respect, rather than violent control.

 

 

 

 

 

Ukraine on hold, Iran first.

 TRUMP VIOLATES "LINDSEY GRAHAM" LAW

WHAT A TANGLED WEB BEING WEAVED

 

Friday, Trump announced an agreement with Russia to sell diesel fuel to the US. A deal that was worked out earlier and a tanker actually left Russia on September 22, just 4 days after Trump signed Lindsey "only good Russian is a dead Russian" Graham law that mandated severe sanctions on any one buying Russian oil. China, India and others ignored the sanctions and it seems so did Donald Trump. Is this now the end of anyone taking seriously sanctions in the future. That may be the only real good result of this deal.

 

One has to wonder about a few things, What did Russia get in return for this accommodation?  How is Russia being paid, in Dollars, Rubles, Yuan or gold? Are Russian assets frozen in the US being released? Has the US stopped giving targeting and intelligence to Ukraine? While Russia could use the money, there is no doubt this deal was not about money. 

 

We see Trump offering Russia all kinds of carrots concerning trade with the US.  Does Russia really believe that Trump can be trusted to keep any promised agreement? We must assume there is some sort of immediate transaction that is not based on future promises.

 

We can also assume that Trump hopes to drive a wedge between Russia, China and Iran, particularly Iran. We also see Trump offering China future trade rewards with his recent meetings with US business leaders attending meetings in China and in Washington.  We can assume that the sacrifice called for is Iran, both by Russia and China. 

 

This oil deal may hope to relieve the results of the upcoming hostilities with Iran, and the hope is that after Iran is destroyed, then Russia and then China will be on the menu, in that order.  I suspect that lines are busy between China, Russia and Iran.

 

 

 

 

 

Mid-east war expanding into regional conflict.

 LOOKING FOR WILLING FIGHTERS EVERYWHERE

PAID FIGHTERS VS DEFENDERS OF THEIR HOMELAND

 

While the war with Iran is on hold due to a dilemma of no good options, attempts to expand the war into a regional conflict is another option that will not yield any good results. 

 

While it is still not clear why Saudi Arabia thought it was good idea to go to war with Ansar Allah or the Houthi, it is clear they are in desperate need for help. Pleading to the Americans, the French, British, Egypt, Israel and now even Syria, it is a humiliating circus for the richest kingdom in the region. while it is reported that Pakistan may be rising to the call, we will see how hard they want to fight and die in Yemen.

 

While Saudi Arabia is rich, or at least was, until this 7 month war began bleeding that wealth in many ways. Having spent billions on US war machines it still needs willing warm bodies to go to Yemen and risk dying. Many people will do many despicable things for money, but when it come to dying money is never worth it.

 

While the US and the gulf nations have been paying fighters for years, often they were incentivized by Ideology, or the spoils of war. Fighting in Yemen and even in Iran creates ideological conflicts and in Yemen in particular few spoils, only hardship and death. War planes with bombs are a little removed from the real dying, but ground war is real war, hot, dirty, unpredictable, with often terrible odds of surviving. 

 

We suspect the Yemen war is either the hope of luring Iran to their defense or just a prelude to another round with Iran. It is clear that he next attack on Iran will be intense, it is also clear that it is likely to pull the plug on the world economy, an exceptionable risk for a small minority, but most likely not for most of the world. The repercussion of a resumption of the Iran war might spread a regional war to a global war that will possibly not spare any country inestimable risks.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North Korea, relic of the past or a glimpse of the future.

 OWNING NOTHING AND BEING HAPPY?

WILL THIS BE THE MODEL FOR MODERN SURVEILLANCE STATE 

 

You tube provides insight on the what many foreign countries are like, particularly those that we will never be able to see. There have been several podcasts by those that have traveled to North Korea. Travel to North Korea is limited to just a few countries and there are plenty of restrictions. Below is what has been portrayed by visitors to the country. I would speculate that North Korea is the only pure Communist country in today's world. 

 

Travelers to North Korea are restricted to travel  with groups of other travelers and are accompanied by guides. It seems they are only able to travel to major cites that are modern and well developed, so they are mostly restricted to seeing what they will allow. Life in rural areas and other cities may be far different. 

 

Housing, Health care and education are all free and everyone get some sort of a food allowance. Single people live with their parents, upon marriage the new couple gets their own housing and as they have children it gets  bigger. it seems the size ranges from 340 to 540 sq. feet.

 

Education is provided depending on scores and abilities and after graduation the state places them in their job, they can request options, but it is ultimately decided by the state. Workers get 2 weeks vacation, work 5 days a week usually and earn between $200 and $700 a month. Retirement is 60 for men and 55 for women. Maternity leave is 8 months and women with children can tend to childcare.

 

All business is owned by the state, there is no private business nor private real estate property. All transportation in government provided rail or bus; only bicycles are privately owned.  It is reported that this year there will be allowed some private autos to selected people. People who excel in sports, science or other value to the state can get extra benefits, bigger housing etc..

 

It actually sounds much like a system that some in this country are advocating. There is no freedom of speech or opposition. Internet is available within the country as is cell phone service. TV and entertainment are all controlled by the state.

 

Much of the financial transactions are digital transactions with a cell phone. 

 

With the advent of AI and the ability of states to monitor and surveil everything and everyone, there is little hope of any change of direction from the people.  

 

When you listen to the people in the World Economic forum, one could speculate that North Korea could be the future for the majority of mankind. AI and the surveillance state will make that possible with a minimal cadre of enforcers. Their motto of "You will own nothing and be happy." should be frightening. 

 

One wonders if it possible to domestic a population over time, just as chickens or cattle, not knowing nothing else and malcontents and non conformists weeded out or isolated. Only a change of direction by the elites of a country could change that and it seems few would ever give up power once secured.

 

 

 

Red diesel is all about the tax.

 COMPLICATIONS OF TARGETING DYED DIESEL

DISRUPTION IN HEATING OIL SUPPLIES 

 

Trump supposedly made an executive order allowing dyed diesel fuel to be used in trucks, this most likely will not happen. Red dyed diesel is dyed to distinguish it from taxed and non taxed fuel. It is illegal to use dyed diesel on the highways of the nation, the tax is mostly a state tax, which is unlikely to be under Trumps jurisdiction. It is a highway tax to keep the roads maintained, In Pennsylvania the tax is 74.1 cents and the federal tax is 24.4 cents. a total 98. 5 cents. Heating oil and farm and construction fuel is not taxed because it is not used in highway transportation. Heating oil and diesel are interchangeable the dye is just to indicate the untaxed fuel.

 

Trump does have the authority to suspend the 24.4 cent tax on undyed highway diesel, but getting involved in the dyed fuel will be a complicated mess. 

 

Trucks that run dyed diesel on the road will be fined, distributors will be reluctant to fill road used tanks. Stations that put dyed fuel in their tanks will have residual dye in their tanks indefinitely. It may disrupt heating oil supplies right when heating oil is being planned for the winter season. 

 

I suspect we will see a walk back on this and the right legal option would be to suspend the 24.4 cent federal tax on all highway fuel, both diesel and gas, this would be simple to implement and simple to reinstate in the future. 

 

A simple consultation with someone in the fuel business would have saved an embarrassing uninformed move. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yemen/Saudi war escalates,

 ANSAR ALLAH ENCIRCLES TAIZZ

WEST HOPES FOR SUNNI SHIA WAR

 

The war between Yemen and Saudi Arabia intensified yesterday as the Saudi backed fighters attempted to retake the strait on the Red sea. It is reported that attempt has failed and at the same time Ansar Allah as encircled Taizz the second most populated city in Yemen. While Ansar Allah or Houthis have been labeled the rebel forces, they control the largest city Sanas and may soon control the second largest Taizz. They control the west and north which is the majority of the populated part of Yemen.

 

Yemen has a population of 43 million and Saudi Arabia has a population of 35 million, many of their population are foreign workers. Yemen is majority Shia and Saudi Arabia Suni. There has been conflict between the two since 1935 when Saudi Arabia took several former areas in northern Yemen. While Yemen is often labeled an Iranian proxy they are actually independent in their policies, but aligned with Iran. 

 

It is reported that there are now French, British and US advisers in Saudi Arabia and also that 40,000 Pakistani troops are on the way to assist the Saudi's. Extensive bombing continued of Yemen yesterday and the Saudi pipeline to the Red sea was again disabled along with major damage to their biggest refinery.  It is also reported that the pipeline has no air defense but is patrolled by US helicopters.

 

Majority Shia Pakistan risks revolt at home by aiding western allied governments. the present government has long been cooperative with the CIA and has displaced the most popular president of Pakistan Imran Khan, under pressure from the US. Khan is presently in prison after surviving an assassination attempt. Khan had hoped to move Pakistan into a neutral position in global politics. We will see how the Shia population views their soldiers fighting against a Shia nation.

 

This Yemen war is part of the Iran war, possibly to secure a safe area in Saudi Arabia for a staging area.  It also provides a Suni/Shia conflict that would hopefully cause destruction of both sides in a Muslim conflict, an eternal strategy of divide and conquer. Saudi Arabia has always viewed itself as the leader of the Muslim world, but its standing in the Muslim world is under question.

 

Israel would like a militarily devastated region and the US ultimately wants control of all gulf oil. It appears the region is on its way to being devastated, which will result in a global economic crisis and the oil may be unavailable for years, if these conflicts continue.

 

 

 

 

 

Will Iran strike first?

 US & ISRAEL ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME WAR

NO LONGER A SURPRISE ATTACK 

 

Few actually expect any kind of peace agreement with Iran, including Iran. Trump has made it clear that an attack is coming, if not now, after the US and Israeli elections.  the election results will have no bearing on this attack, both Trump and Netanyahu will still be charge. 

 

Many speculate that Iran may attack as soon as they see signs  of an imminent attack. Iran has only attacked once in the last 6 months that was not in retaliation to US strikes. Israel has refrained from any attacks on Iran, possibly in an effort to stockpile its munitions.  

 

Iran will most likely not change that pattern, as the policy of allowing the US and Israel to start the action has benefited them in world opinion, not in the US or other western countries, but in other parts of the world.  Iran will know as soon as the planes are in the sky and it will give them time to put drones and missiles in the air before any actual ordnance strikes Iran. In fact, US planes will need to travel further and refuel before dropping their stand off weapons, which will give Iran an opportunity to put drones into the air in the refueling area, it could be a very hazardous activity.

 

Many believe this attack is coming before the elections and aircraft and resources are on the way to the region. This coming attack looks like it will be an effort to be a decisive effort, hoping to put an end to the standoff. It could very well be just that, but it is uncertain what the outcome will be.  It is unlikely that the US will be able to muster the resources in the near future for anther attack this year. 

 

If Iran is destroyed, it will set off another chain of events that are unpredictable, migration, terrorism and other problems will be hard to estimate. If the US is stymied, it may very well end its position in the region and usher in a new era in West Asia.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why Trump is unconcerned about the midterms.

 INCONSEQUENTIAL TO HIS AGENDA 

DEMOCRATS WILL BE POWERLESS  

 

Some have speculated that Trump really has little concern about the results of the midterm elections. Trump has even stated publicly that the elections are not relevant for him. He may be more right than most would like to admit.

 

Trump has essentially passed most of his domestic agenda that was possible in this term. It is pretty obvious that he will need to focus on foreign policy and trade and the congress will have little power to change any of his foreign policy decisions. While they may be able stop funding for some items, they will not stop funding Ukraine or Israel as they are just as beholding to the neo-con foreign policy lobby and the Israel lobby as the present congress.

 

While they probably could be successful in getting Trump's support on some legislation if they could agree to trading or compromising, they will most likely do what Democrats usually do, spend the next 2 years with investigations and court filings. None of those paths will yield any results in the next 2 years and Trump will continue on his foreign policy path that they will not have the courage to oppose.

 

Politically speaking, a Democrat win this November may be the best thing to happen for Republicans in 2028. Trump will  not be impeached by the Senate and I suspect most Americans are very tired politically. I see no real Democrat solutions, just more of the same kind of things they propose. They most likely will give Republicans lots of ammunition for 2028.