NW LEHIGH'S DARRYL SCHAFER ELECTED VICE-CHAIRMAN OF PSBA REGIONAL DIRECTORS COORDINATING COUNCIL

Northwestern Lehigh School Board Director, Darryl Shafer, has been unanimously elected Vice-Chairman of the Pennsylvania School Board Association Regional Directors Coordinating Council(RDCC). He will now be serving as one of the 11 members of the Governing Board of the PSBA. These 11 members represent all of the 501 school boards across the state. Northwestern Lehigh should be proud that out of 4500 school directors in the state one of their school board directors has been elected to this position.  Mr. Schafer has served for 10 years on the PSBA. He is currently serving as the Mid-East Region #8 Regional Director, which encompasses Berks, Carbon, Lehigh, Monroe, Pike, and Schuylkill counties. These are all unpaid positions.

Mr. Schafer has served 10 years on the Northwestern Lehigh school board.  He has served as Vice-President and 3 years as President of the board. He has also served on various committees such as Education, Curriculum Council, Negotiations, Operations, School Health Advisory Council, PSBA Legislative Liaison and the NSBA Advocacy Network.

He also holds the position of Vice-President of the Carbon-Lehigh Intermediate Unit #21 and is a member of their Negotiations Committee. He has served in the past as Secretary of the Northwestern Recreation Committee for eight years. He has served as President of the Lehigh Valley Aviculture Society.

He holds a BA from Kutztown University in anthropology/sociology with a concentration in archaeology and a minor in geography. Darryl owns several online bookstores, as well as a seasonal family-run concession business. He is a fully disabled veteran, a life-member of the Disabled Veteran's Association (DVA), and a member of several national sporting organizations. Personal interests include fly fishing, renovating his home, former boy scout, and having shown horses on the national level. Currently residing in Kempton with his lovely wife Becky and their two daughters, Ayla (18) and Cora (13), Darryl is a very strong supporter of the arts, technical education and diversity.

Darryl Schafer has earned the support and respect of all who have worked with him on the Northwestern Lehigh school board, and the PSBA, the Intermediate Unit, and in all his endeavors.  He has served in all these capacities without compensation.  He is known for his research and bringing facts to his positions, his dedication in doing his best. He should be commended by the community for his selfless dedication to a high standard of excellence in his service.


PARKLAND HAS TEACHERS CONTRACT 1 YEAR EARLY

The Parkland school district has agreed to a contract 9 months ahead of schedule. The new contract will take effect on September 1, 2016. This is the usual 3-year contract that includes a salary increase of 2.4% each year.  This is in line with what has been the norm for most other districts in the area. Some say that they were glad to get the contract early as economic clouds are on the horizon and with lay-offs beginning at some large local firms.

Their health insurance plans resemble the C and D plans currently offered by Northwestern Lehigh school district. It appears that most of the districts are attempting to hold down these costs, particularly since their pension costs are rising to more than 29% of salaries for the coming year.

These pension costs have been part of the hold-up on the state budget as they are not sustainable.  The only real answer is a 401k-type plan with defined contributions by the school districts. The pension fund has a $60 billion deficit that is growing, while the economy is probably at the high point in this economic cycle. The pension fund must be reformed if it is to survive. 

SANDERS DOESNT WANT TO WIN NOMINATION

It is now obvious that Bernie Sanders is no more than a sparring partner for Hillary Clinton. Whether it is just to put up a phony show or give Hillary practice in debating, there is really no desire from Sanders to actually win the democratic primary. 

In last night's debate he neutered himself on national television by apologizing for something that, it could have been argued, was not his campaign's fault.  This is the second time that he has played the foil for Hillary on national television. It is interesting that many of his positions coincide with the positions of Republican candidates, particularly trade and national defense. 

Practicing for real debates is often done by candidates, but not on national television in a fraudulent forum. Bernie Sanders has raised substantial amounts of money from honest people who hoped they would have a chance at a new independent presidential candidate. What they have is a fraud who has passed up two chances at raising his campaign to the next level by damaging Hillary Clinton with the truth and has instead kissed the ring of the anointed candidate. He should withdraw and return the money that he has accepted under false pretense of being an actual candidate for president.

I am not a fan of a lot of Sanders' positions, but I thought he was an honest guy willing to depart from the establishment line. He must be a disappointment to many of his supporters.



BERNIE SANDERS, HILLARY AND THE DNC

The Democratic National Committee has suspended the Sanders Campaign from using their database for the foreseeable future. The DNC claims that the Sanders campaign accessed information from Hillary's campaign.

The interesting point is that the Sanders campaign informed the DNC weeks ago that there were problems with the database. Did anyone question that the Clinton campaign may have also accessed Sanders campaign information from the database?

The company that runs the database, NGP VAN, runs this database for all democratic candidates, unions, activists, and most all progressive organizations. The Sanders campaign has paid around $450,000 for use of the database. Has anyone asked what the Clinton campaign has paid for this? The Sanders campaign has sued to regain access to the information they paid for and also access to all the information that they have added to the files. NGP VAN says that it repaired the firewalls within hours of being notified. With only weeks to the beginning of primary season, every day of lost access is a huge handicap to the Sanders campaign.

On Thursday the Sanders Campaign received the endorsement of two very important groups, Democracy for Action, a large progressive group, and the 700,000 member Communication Workers Union. Some say this is what brought about the suspension. The Sanders campaign has accused the DNC of being in the bag for Hillary Clinton. This is undeniably true. The Democratic Establishment would not want Sanders to be their nominee, much like the RNC does not want an outsider as their nominee. Its all about the power and money! The political establishment on both sides will do all that they can do to deny the will of the people. They have become dishonest referees and it will damage their base in the future.

This has given the Sanders campaign, if they have learned anything from Donald Trump, just what they needed, if they are smart enough and adept enough, they can pin this right onto Hillary Clinton. We will now see if the Sanders campaign is a real campaign that wants to win, or just a sparring partner to make Hillary look good. Tonight is their debate, we will see if Sanders can step up to do what it takes to win.

Bernie Sanders is way to the left for most people, but is a likeable and honest candidate. He has brought much to the debate in this election cycle and deserves fair treatment.



Who will rule the Caliphate

MIDDLE EAST COLD WAR ON MANY FRONTS

OIL WARS AND WHO WILL RULE THE CALIPHATE

Looking at the Middle East, complicated and intense maneuvering for power is underway. It is looking more likely that the establishment of an Islamic caliphate is a real possibility. The question is, who is going to rule?  You have Iran, the leader of the Shia world and its allies, opposed by Saudi Arabia, leader of the Sunnis and their allies. You also have Turkey, who is a member of NATO, possibly reminiscing of the glory days of the Ottoman empire. Until recently, this all seemed to be a pipe dream, but events in the last few years make it look much more possible.

The maneuvering has been going on ever since the founding of the Islamic Republic of Iran.  It is escalating now. The Saudis and their allies have been attempting to counter Iran's influence and subversion in diverse places in the Middle East. Iran has been supporting their front groups like Hezbollah for years. Money is flowing to allies, and those not directly committed will need to decide which side to ally with.  Iran has recently had a windfall of 100's of billions of dollars to keep up the fight. The Saudis and their allies are well financed.

Iran, the Shia leader has a population of 78,000,000. It has a modern military and terrain that is defendable. Turkey, a majority Sunni country, is also roughly 78,000,000 people with a modern military. Egypt the largest country, majority Sunni, is secular for now, having overthrown the Muslim Brotherhood, which is a Sunni extremist group; Hamas is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. Iraq is majority Shia, but Arab not Persian. Somalia and Yemen have populations of around 30,000,000 each. You can see by the above names that the struggle in these countries is almost a daily item.

Being Sunni or Shia does not necessarily mean that they all favor an Islamic caliphate , but as we know from history, victory often goes to the dedicated and motivated minority.

While subversion, terrorism and fear are all tools in this conflict, oil has also become a weapon in this war. OPEC and Saudi Arabia have continued to overproduce to depress the price of oil. On one hand it is attempting to bankrupt the fracking producers in the US...US producers need $50 a barrel to be profitable and they have large debts from their huge investments in this resource. They may soon start falling out due to bankruptcy. It will be interesting to see who buys these assets.  Don't be surprised if it is not Middle East players, maybe not directly but indirectly.  Then it also puts pressure on the revenue of their enemies, such as Iran.  It is also effecting oil producers world wide and may cause economic problems in the future.

The US policy is unclear, but it has been consistent from Bush to Clinton, to Bush, to Obama / Clinton. Bush destabilized Iraq, a counter to Iran. Obama /Clinton destabilized Egypt, a secular modern country, by assisting in the deposing of Mubarak. They supported the Muslim Brotherhood, a Sunni extremist group that has ties to the White House and Hiliary Clinton. They overthrew Kadffi in Libya, and there is evidence they supported terrorist groups in that country. They continue to insist on the overthrowing of Assad in Syria, with no plan for what will replace him.

In the latest news, Saudi Arabia is forming a coalition of 34 Mid-East and north African countries, all Sunni majorities.  Iran, Iraq, Syria and Azerbaijan are notably absent.  At the same time we see that the Saudis have allowed voting and electing women to office. Saudi Arabia is the home of Wahhabis ideology which has been propagated worldwide. ISIS and Al-Qaeda have been supported by Saudis, if not the government itself.   This is going to bring about push-back by fundamentalist adherents in their own country. It is very possible we will see increased instability in this influential country. They claim that this coalition is going to destroy terrorists, and if they can clearly demonstrate that this is true, it may go well, but it is a red flag to Iran that they are the object of this coalition.

I believe that Iran has had some nuclear weapons for some time. They probably do not have many, but this is a modern well-educated population, many educated in the west since the 1960's.  To believe that they don't have this 70-year old technology is a stretch.

What they have not had is the means to deliver these weapons. Watching the news, we see that they have successfully tested their first medium range ballistic missiles. They now have the means of delivery. It looks like, unless there is quick change of events, we may be entering a much hotter phase of this conflict.



GOP STRATEGY FAILS

TRUMP, CRUZ, CARSON, LOVE FEST

The debate last night was very interesting in the fact that Trump and Cruz did not take the bait to destroy each other.  Not only did they not take the bait, but they went out of their way to demonstrate that it will not happen.

Trump also made it very clear that there is no chance he will run as a third party candidate. All the maneuvering before the debate by the establishment went down in flames in a big way.

I can see Trump, Cruz and Carson campaigning together against Hillary Clinton.

As for Cruz taking the nomination away from Trump, all that will be necessary is for Trump to let it be known that Cruz will be his first pick for the Supreme Court. Conservatives know the youthful Cruz would be the most dynamic justice on the court. If they had the choice of Cruz being president for 8 years or 40 years on the supreme court, only a fool would choose the former.

As for a brokered convention, there is little doubt that the combination of Cruz, Trump and Carson will have more than 51% of the delegates.

Trump is about to ramp up his media campaign and it will most likely be a departure from the standard fare.

The Carson, Trump, Cruz coalition, which I believe was proposed by Ted Cruz, is a unique and brilliant move by these candidates.

The Republican consultant class may well be facing a low income in 2016.

Middle East Crisis part 2 Afghanistan

HOW DID WE GET HERE?

MIDDLE EAST CHAOS  PART 2

AFGHANISTAN

 

The modern history of the middle east has been overshadowed or clouded by the ideological conflict of the cold war. The policy of the USSR, "The Brezhnev Doctrine"' was to support communist governments that were already in existence and to support and encourage any new communist movements worldwide. The policy of the United States and the western powers was to do all that was possible to block communist and USSR expansion worldwide.

The Soviet Union was the first to publicly warn of the danger of Islamic fundamentalism. The Soviet Union hosted the fifth largest Muslim population in the world during the cold war years.

Afghanistan has a long history of being the crossroads of east and west. It was on the silk road and the gateway to China. We will try to start our observations in the modern era starting in the 1970"s.

The end of the monarchy, and the beginning of the Republic of Afghanistan took place by a non-violent coup by Prime Minister Mohammad Sardar Daud Khan on July 17, 1973. His attempts to carry out economic and political reform met with little success. In April 1978, the Peoples Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA), a Soviet-backed Marxist group led by Nur Mohammad Taraki and others, assassinated Daud and his entire family. The country was then named the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan. Taraki was assassinated in 1979 and replaced by Hafizullah Amin who proceeded to replace religious and traditional laws with Marxist-Leninist ones. While the PDPA held strong control of Kandahar, the rest of the country began to increasingly resist. The PDPA asked for Soviet assistance and the USSR sent in military advisers and also helped to modernize the infrastructure. The PDPA became more repressive and tortured and murdered thousands of the traditional elite, killing over 10,000 and imprisoning over 14,000 more.

In the wake of the Iranian Revolution the US sought rapprochement with the Afghan government. This was not acceptable to the Soviets. In February 1979 the US Ambassador was kidnapped and ultimately murdered when Afghan forces tried to rescue him. The US then reduced assistance and terminated a small military training program.

By early 1979, the Soviets had 1500 advisers in the country and some 20 Soviet advisers were captured and publicly lynched and mutilated. In December 1979, the USSR invaded with 100,000 troops which was assisted by another 100,000 Afghan troops. The Carter administration began to support the resistance. The Reagan administration continued the support. The US through Pakistan's ISI, and Saudi Arabia supplied up to $40 billion in military aid to the Mujahedeen. The 10-year Soviet occupation resulted in the death of between 850,000 and 1,500,000 Afghans; 6 million fled to Pakistan and Iran; 38,000 fled to the United States and many more to Europe. The Soviets lost between 14,000 and 24,000 troops. The fear of militant Islam and the policies of the cold war had placed the Soviet Union in an untenable situation, they began their withdrawal in 1989. The Soviet assistance completely ended in 1992. Their experience was much like the US.'s in Viet Nam. Reforms were begun by Gorbachev with perestroika and glasnost. The Soviet foreign policy and the Soviet system itself were up for reexamination. Interestingly, this was a low point in the history of the USSR, but also a high point in US Soviet relations.

After the fall of the Communist government, the Afghan political parties agreed to a peace and power-sharing agreement (the Peshawar Accords) creating the Islamic State of Afghanistan. All the parties agreed to this accord except Gullbuddin Heckmatyar's Hezb-e Islami who was supported by Pakistan. The interim government was hardly organized before outside forces supported by Iran and Saudi Arabia began fighting for control, Iran supported the Shia Hezb-i Waldat forces, while Saudi Arabia supported the Wahhabite, Ittibad-I Islami faction.  Unrest escalated with different factions, supported by Pakistan, Iran, Saudi-Arabia, Uzbekistan, and regular state forces. In 1995 most of these groups were defeated by the government forces under Ahmad Shah Massoud.

In 1994 , the Taliban under Mullah Omar took power in parts of southern and central Afghanistan. In 1995 with military assistance from Pakistan and financial help from Saudi Arabia they began an offensive against Kabul, but were defeated by Massoud.  In September 1996 they seized Kabul, Massoud and Abdul Rashid Dostum fled and created the Northern Alliance. They controlled about 30% of the country with a moderate Islamic government. The Taliban then created the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. They imposed the strictest form of Islamic law on all who lived in the areas they controlled. They executed many Shia's including Iranian diplomats.

Pakistan supplied troops and supported Taliban and Al Qaeda forces to attempt to defeat the Northern Alliance. In early 2001 Massoud addressed the European Parliament in Brussels asking the international community for assistance. He stated that the Taliban and Al Qaeda had introduced "a very wrong perception of Islam" He claimed the Taliban was loosing popular support of the people and without outside support from Pakistan the Taliban would not endure. On September 9, 2001 Massoud was assassinated by suicide bombers inside Afghanistan. Two days later 3000 American's were killed by Al Qaeda operatives in the United States.

The Taliban and Al-Qaeda were mostly supported by Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, both Sunni Muslim countries. By 2001 of the estimated 45,000 Taliban and Al Qaeda  fighters only 14,000 were Afghans. This started out as the last confrontation of the cold war and transitioned into a Sunni-Shia conflict for control of this remote backward country. This was the opening battle in this war that escalated into a major international crisis that has been ongoing with no end in sight.

Part 3 to follow