Syrian peace, a complicated endeavor.

MANY PLAYERS, DIFFERENT AGENDAS

ASSAD HAS PREVAILED

It is a fact that Syrian dictator Assad has prevailed in the war in Syria. Now there is an effort to bring peace and stability to the country. The problem is that there are a long list of participants some with different objectives.

The Syrian civil war has caused the death of hundreds of thousands and the displacement of millions. The objective now should be a stable and peaceful Syria were many more refugees can go home. Hopefully there can be agreements made internally for a reform that will be lasting.

Many in the U.S. establishment would still favor the overthrow of Assad, but that is now unlikely and what did they hope would have replaced this government.

Turkey would still favor the removal of Assad. They would also like to crush the Kurdish movement for self government.

Israel wants the Iranian military out of Syria, especially in areas near their border.

Iran has been a long time supporter of Assad and wants to expand and solidify their power in the region.

Iraq has granted the Kurd's some autonomy in their quest for self government. At present Iraq is reasonably stable by Mideast standards.

Russia has become the major negotiator of a peaceful, stable Syria, a long time supporter of the Assad government, they have been negotiating with Turkey and Iran and Syria. with side negotiations with Israel and the U.S.. They attempted to secure from Syria a deal that would have given the Kurds a self governed territory in eastern Syria. Syria rejected this deal for now.

Israel wants Iranian forces out of Syria, but Iran has resisted as long as U.S. forces are stationed near their border.

Turkey has agreed with the Trump administration not to address their problems with the Kurds until they have eliminated Isis from Syria. It seems there is going to be a stepped up campaign by Turkey, Syria and Russia to finish off the remaining remnants of Isis left in Syria. U.S. air power may also be employed in this task.

When Isis is eliminated, then the time for a plan to remove foreign troops from Syria and come to some peaceful deal concerning the Kurds will need to be negotiated.

Over 100,000 Syrian refugees have returned home, but there at least 4 million still displaced into other countries in the region. It will be in everyone's interest when that is accomplished.

The withdrawal of American troops from Syria may be a one time good faith effort at ending the civil war and clearing Syria of foreign combatants. If Turkey or Iran take it as an opportunity to enhance their positions, it may be a short lived effort.

Coordinated effort to force Trump from office intensifies

HIGH STAKES POLITICAL WAR CONTINUES

DOJ AND FBI MUST PREVAIL TO COVER THEIR MISDEEDS

We now see a weekly drop of negative reports on the Trump administration every Friday. This is just an escalation of the attacks that started as soon as Trump announced his candidacy. It became hysterical as soon as the election was won. There was talk of impeachment even  before the inauguration.

While many assume this is just politics as usual, it is far more than that. The appointment of Robert Mueller as a special investigator began within weeks of Trump taking office.  His appointment was a way of putting a chain on the the Trump administration to forestall any attempt to clean up the Department of Justice and the FBI. It was also a way to cover those in high places that have been involved in corrupt practices . 

There are many indications that the Justice Department, the FBI and the State Department were instrumental in many illegal and corrupt transactions. 

One that has been brought to light was the transfer of Uranium One, a company that holds the right to 20% of US Uranium production to the Russian Company Rosatum. This was signed off on by top levels of the Justice department and the FBI many of which are involved in the Trump investigation. Mueller, Rosenstein, McCabe and others were involved in this deal and millions of dollars were paid to the Clinton foundation and others. It probably is possible that the Russians could provide a lot of enlightening information on this deal.

Within the last week the FBI raided the home of an whistle blower informer on this matter, they confiscated much of the material that he had to verify his allegations.

Another was their involvement in the acquisition of France's Alstom which was made more convenient by actions by the Justice department and UK intelligence. This purchase was made by GE then owner of NBC.

Then of course there was the huge fines demanded from US and other Banks in the US. The Justice department demanded that the fines be agreed to or executives would be criminally charged. It was really extortion. Then a deal was made that the fine could be reduced by 50% if the money was paid to non-profit groups selected by the Obama Administration. This list of eligible groups was classified and never revealed who got the money. These fines were in the tens of Billions of dollars.It could be that this is the source of the huge amount of campaign cash that the Democrats had in the 2018 election.  see http://northwesternlehighobserver.blogspot.com/2016/01/a-story-of-federal-government-corruption.html:  This article is a featured article on the upper right hand of this blog.

It seems that the effort now is to force Trumps numbers down into the low 30's and then pressure him to resign. While the house Democrats are willing to pursue impeachment it is a risky endeavor that could result in massive losses for the Democrats in 2020.

There is also the hope that pressure can be placed on Republicans to pressure Trump to resign.

Trump is not without the power to prevail in this matter. It appears he may be waiting for the Mueller probe to issue its report and then de-classify and release the information that is available. We will have to wait and see how this all plays out, but either way it will be a crisis for the country.

Paying off blackmailers is now considered a campaign contribution.

THE DEFINITION OF A CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTION HAS NOW BEEN EXPANDED BEYOND COMPREHENSION

IF THIS IS CORRECT THEN MANY CONGRESSMEN WHO HAVE PAID OFF WOMEN OUT OF THE CONGRESSIONAL SLUSH FUND ARE ALSO GUILTY

We now hear a litany of pundits and would be lawyers spouting the talking point that Trump has violated campaign laws by agreeing to pay women for a non-disclosure agreement in 2016. Their reasoning is that Trump deprived the voters of the knowledge of unsavory incidents in the past. They believe this could have effected the election results and thereby it is a campaign contribution.

There are quite a few problems with this theory. First, Trump could argue that he has paid many non-disclosure agreement for many years and this is just another one to avoid bad publicity and embarrassment for his family. The argument is that this has nothing to do with his campaign and is a personal matter. I don't know if anyone has ever been charged for a campaign violation that was to stop bad publicity.

It is mentioned many times that this was an illegal payment, since when have such payments become illegal?

It is also claimed by democrats that this is an impeachable offense. I am not sure that any crime committed before one is in office is an impeachable offense.

The Trump administration should declassify the $15.2 million of payments by the Congressional office of compliance. There were over 250 such payments made. These are payments made to women who have accused members of Congress of abusive behavior. These payments are non-disclosure agreements paid from taxpayer money since 1997. This is an arrangement approved by congress as part of the Congressional Accountability Act. These payments were made concerning non-consenting acts. This act was passed 98-1 in the senate and 390-0 in the house.

Sort of an oxymoron.

Maybe congress should make it illegal to ask someone to pay to not disclose embarrassing facts. Oh!,sorry that is already illegal in all states, it is defined as extortion or blackmail.

I personally hope Democrats pursue this with an attempt at impeachment. It will prove that they cannot be trusted with power.

Electoral college made union possible.

WITHOUT ELECTORAL COLLEGE COUNTRY COULD DISINTEGRATE

WISDOM OF FOUNDERS IS AGAIN EVIDENT

When the country was founded, when the union was formed, the founders and the representatives from the various states where concerned about the preservation of state and individual right. They addressed those concerns with the bill of rights.

They also were concerned that the large population centers of Philadelphia, New York and Boston would be able to have the populations to control the direction of the country. In their wisdom they devised the electoral college. This system  gave states a electoral vote for each representative from their state. The more population, the more votes, but only to match their representatives. The candidate who won the majority of the votes in each state would win all the electoral votes assigned to that state. They also balanced the influence in congress by allowing each state to have 2 Senators. While not perfect this is probably the most fair way of electing presidents that we could have.

A look at the map above shows the red counties that voted for Trump  and the blue areas for Clinton.

There are 3,141 counties in the United States. Trump won 3.084 counties Clinton won 57.

There are 62 counties in New York, Trump won 46, Clinton 16.

Clinton won the popular vote by 1.5 million.

Clinton won over 2 million more votes than Trump in just the 5 boroughs New York city.

These 5 counties comprise 319 square miles, The United States comprises 3,797,000 square miles.

If we elected according to the popular vote, the large cities of America would control the whole of the country. 

I suspect the union would have been impossible and would now not last a decade if such a policy would be adopted.

Have no fear, To change from the electoral college to the popular vote would require the vote of  34 states. The states are unlikely to give this up.

Political war moves to stage two.

POLITICAL  ROPE  A  DOPE  STRATEGY BEGINS

HIGH STAKES STRATEGY WILL INCREASE VOLATILITY

The Kavanaugh hearings were a  glimpse into the Democratic party exercising their power. Whether this alone or the fact that it was unlikely that Republicans could retain control of the house seems to be the impetus for the strategy for the midterm elections.

It was clear that the President had decided his priority was to keep control of the senate. He went all out with this strategy and has come up with his plan for the next two years.

It is estimated that $6 billion dollars was spent on this election. It may very well be double if you can calculate all the third party and in kind contributions.

The 2020 election will probably cost $4 billion for just the presidential race. For all contests it could be near $16 billion.

Both Nancy Polosi and Trump have voiced their hope of working to pass some important legislation in the next 2 years. It is doubtful that Polosi will be able to keep her party under control. They have made it clear that they expect to use their power to investigate the president, wall street and anyone who they view as an enemy. 

I believe Trump is counting on this. He will bait them continually to attack, attack and attack some more.

Maxine Waters, as head of the Finance committee has vowed to investigate and punish wall street. Gerald Nadler has pledged to impeach not only Trump but Brett Kavanaugh.  This will give the Republicans the Billions in contributions they will need for the next election.

As far as impeachment, they most likely will not be able to control themselves and Trump will provoke them continually. They really will never be able to get the 67% of the senate needed to remove the president. Trump will not resign, this will be greatest contest of his life and he will enjoy the fight.

While the Democrats are burning rubber up and down Pennsylvania avenue, creating a lot of smoke and noise, Trump will be able to nominate and confirm a record number of judges and possibly another Supreme court Justice. 

He will no longer be limited by Flake, Murkowski and Collins, as he most likely has enough votes to bypass them.

He will now be able to fire and replace many of those who have attempted to sabotage his administration. 

All this, while the Democrats will have dozens of candidates hoping to win their nomination for president. It will cost them Billions in contributions. It may very well create a real war over the direction of  their party.

It may very well make the last two years look like a walk in the park.

VOTE, OR PREPARE FOR CHAOS

OK VOTERS, NOW IT'S YOUR TURN

THIS IS YOUR ONLY CHANCE TO TELL THEM HOW YOU REALLY FEEL

Are you confident in our economic direction?

Do you remember this national disgrace?

Do want to see more of this behavior?

Do you believe you have benefited from unfair advantage?

Is this in the best interest of our country?

VOTE  VOTE  VOTE

League of women voters, Just another left wing activist group.

NOTHSTEIN, WILD DEBATE SHELVED

LIKELY TO BE LAST DEBATE ATTENDED BY REPUBLICANS

The Lehigh Valley league of women voters held a debate on October 25. in Northampton county. The debate was attended by around 200 supporters of both candidates. The League told those interested that there was no need to tape the debate as they would make it available for viewing on their website. I personally did not attend the debate, expecting to view it on local TV as has been the custom in the past.

It seems that the democratic candidate Susan Wild did not have a very good night. I have been told by several parties that Wild had a Freudian slip, not once but twice, on the question of immigration. It is reported she answered,"I am for open bor...", oops  and then went on to say she was for enforcing the law. Whether this was an accident or trying to impress both camps in the crowd we will not know, especially since the League has decided they will not put out the video for viewing. Some have said, they will put out parts of the debate, those that were favorable to Wild.

The league has always portrayed itself as a non partisan group, but it seems it has succumbed to the growing practice of becoming not a facilitator of information for the community, but a player on the side of the democratic party. I viewed their website, it is a 100% left leaning partisan agenda. That is OK, every organization has a right to reflect the views of their members. 

Hey, Lehigh Valley League of Women Voters, just be honest with voters, you are just one more left wing activist group. You will able to host all the Democratic primary debates of the future.