U.S./ Russia war to now go critical

RUSSIA TO NOW BEGIN TO RETALIATE AGAINST U.S.

WW3 IS UNDERWAY, BETTER PREPARE

We see that the Biden administration is now asking for $33 billion in aid for Ukraine. This is just the first installment on a planned expenditure of near $10 billion a month. Ukraine is now openly a client state of the U.S. We can expect Ukraine to be a dependent state on the U.S. for decades to come. This is clearly a proxy war between the United States and Russia. NATO is an empty suit without U.S. money and coercion.  So far, Russia has been very restrained in not using its capabilities to push back on the economic war being waged from the West. You can expect that to change very soon. What the response will be is still not clear. Will it be cyber disruptions or cutting off of energy to Europe or will it be a massive military strike?

Yesterday it was reported the first U S. and British deaths in the fighting in Ukraine. It is also reported that British special forces are now in Ukraine. U.S. troops are training Ukrainians in Poland. We are also increasing our assistance on surveillance and targeting for the Ukrainians. Does anyone doubt that U.S. troops are, if not already, going to be in Ukraine very soon. It has also been reported that over 400 of the soldiers in Mariupol are foreigners. How many are U.S. and British special forces? Is that why they cannot surrender? Have they become collateral damage that must be denied? 

At the same time congress has approved the confiscation of any wealth from Russia or its citizens. This is unprecedented theft without any due process. It has just hardened the resolve of Russia and its citizens.

The theory is that if enough misery is experienced by the Russian populace they will demand the withdrawal from Ukraine or the overthrow of the existing government. It is a delusion that only would be embraced by our brilliant state department, whose record for death and destruction is only topped by the dictators of WW2. It has solidified the Russian population behind their government.

Today the wholesale price of diesel and heating oil is $5.13 a gallon. This is happening because the reserves in the Northeast U.S. are at an all time low. The Northeast was were most of the Russian fuel was used. We can expect the cost of transportation to increase dramatically and the possibility of many independent truckers parking unless they can be compensated for these increases. We should expect double digit inflation by fall, if not shortages.  We can expect heating oil of $5.65 and diesel at $6.50 now and much more by fall. We also say a 1.4% drop in the GDP for the first quarter. We are also seeing the beginning of layoffs in some sectors.

Then there is the possibility of severe recession in Europe, that is happening without a cutoff of Russian gas and oil. If it should be cut off, Europe will plunge into a depression overnight. At present, gas and oil are still being supplied through pipelines in Ukraine and Russia is still paying Ukraine transport fees. A remarkable situation.

We see almost a compete lockdown in China, which will translate into the hobbling of the United States and European economies due to the inadequate supplies of essential goods.

We see both Japan and China refraining from buying U.S. treasuries due to their own domestic problems. The U.S. debt service will explode to  1.5 Trillion dollars if interest rates go to 5%. This at a time with government spending is exploding on all fronts. This is all going to happen without a further expansion of the conflict.

By fall of this year we may being seeing the worst world economic crisis since WW2. Most Americans are still deluded into thinking everything will be Ok, after all, we are richest country in the world and in their lifetime they have never really experienced economic disaster.  There are no signs of diplomacy or rethinking these policies and it will inevitably lead to a bad result for everyone. It is now like a runaway locomotive, out of control and speeding forward without guidance or thought.

Kamala wants to know root cause of illegal immigration.

NO NEED TO GO TO GUATEMALA TO FIND OUT 

GIVING MONEY TO DYSFUNCTIONAL GOVERNMENTS WILL NEVER BE THE ANSWER

So, it seems Kamala Harris doesn't understand why people want to come to the United States. A little look at the income statistics of these countries will explain. 

                          average income     most common income

Guatemala               $26,000                      $12,000

Nicaragua                $26,000                      $  7,000

El Salvador              $41,000                      $  7,000

Mexico                     $49,000                     $17,000

United States           $35,900

It is interesting to note that the average incomes are not that far apart and we can assume the cost of living is far less in those countries than the United States. The below cost of living is for the more expensive cities in those countries, I would expect rural areas are much less.

Cost of living index

New York               100

Mexico City             38

San Salvador            45

Guatemala City        46

So it appears that if you have a skill, you can do all right even those central american cities. Many of these cities are prosperous and as modern as many U. S. cities.

Social welfare spending as a percent of GDP

1    France      31.7%

2.   U.S.          30%

19  Canada     20.9%

35. Mexico       7.7%

      El Salvador 2  %

      Guatemala  1.4% 

I could find no exact numbers for Nicaragua.  I would assume it is similar to its neighbors.

So you can see if you have some skills in these central American cities, considering the low cost of living you can do ok, but if you don't, you are suffering and there is no social safety net. It seems the plan of the Biden administration is to transfer more money to these central American governments to raise their spending on social programs. 

It is clear, that the real draw is the hope of an improved life style by qualifying for the generous benefits of the United States. If this open door policy continues we can expect the emptying of countries south of our border of unskilled uneducated workers. This may very well be an acceptable reality for these governments. Can we support all the impoverished citizens from south of border without destabilizing our education, health care and social system. It is likely we will soon look more and more like those countries to our south.

The only real hope of changing the current border crisis is to encourage education and jobs to the citizens of these countries. This will never  be accomplished with cash transfers to these governments. Maybe instead of regime change policy in the middle east we should have been focusing on reforms right here at home.

 

Update 4/28/22, Biden is going to ask congress for $33. billion in aid for Ukraine. More money to process unlimited immigrant invasion into the country. Not 1 cent to secure the border. It is time to consider impeachment and removal from office.

Let's hope Musk's purchase will serve the nation well.

IF MUSK DOES IT RIGHT HE WILL PROVIDE A SERVICE TO DEMOCRACY AND MAKE MONEY TOO

HE HAS THE ABILITY TO ENHANCE TWITTER NOT JUST REFORM 

Today everyone takes the internet and social media as a necessary part of life. It is amazing that it has become so in little more than 25 years. It is still in its infancy if compared to other new technology revolutions. It has certainly caused much debate as to its uses for both good and evil.

Originally designed with trade and communication in mind it has now become part of everyday life for everybody from small children to the elderly. It has put many traditional businesses out of business and inspired new ideas that would not be possible without this great tool.

Social media was first politically used by the Barack Obama campaign in 2008. It was praised as a brilliant use of social media to reach many more people for far fewer dollars than previously possible. It was partly made possible by the media companies themselves who were often supporters of the democrat party. They aided in showing the way in how to use this new media in an effective way.

Then in 2016 the Donald Trump campaign was able to also use this media in an effective way. To some in the industry, this was almost considered criminal, prompting an investigation about how this was possible.

Then the thumbs started to be put on the scale of this media and eventually we have seen censorship and then out right bans by social media companies who disagreed with opinions expressed by some users.

They used their power to silence those they disagreed with, a disgusting abuse of power in a free country.

While many have suggested this could be cured by government regulation, which at some time may happen, there is nothing better than the free market. A choice, that is what many hope has just happened by Elon Musk buying Twitter.

Time will tell if this will work out. Musk states that he wants a public square that's open to all to express their opinion. He also is contemplating other reforms about anonymity and robotic responses. I don't think anyone doubts he can do it, but he most likely will have to change the existing structure of the current employees or at least give them a set of rules to govern their employment. He has also stated that he has not made this purchase to make more money, but if he does it right, he will make more money.

I fully expect that Musk will eventually expand his social media presence and have it be used in more new innovative ways. He does seem to be more unbiased in his political opinion and is starting out on the right foot, lets hope his action will be a benefit to the political discourse to enhance and increase democracy.

What will it cost to "Weaken Russia"

 U.S. GOAL IN UKRAINE IS TO "WEAKEN RUSSIA"

ANOTHER BRILLIANT STATEMENT FROM BIDEN ADMINISTRATION

Yesterday's statement from the U.S. Defense secretary will harden the will and increase the Russian domestic support for this war. While anyone who has been paying attention knows this has been U.S. policy concerning Russia for 20 years, it may be the first time it has been openly stated.

There also has been statements concerning,"Bleeding Russia" a statement that originated from Osama Bin Laden in his many statements concerning the United States. There certainly is a lot of bleeding going on, but mostly from the Ukrainian populace. You can expect that it will soon get a lot worse.

While we hear many statements about the Ukraine war that are just so much trash talk from the U.S. administration, the fact is this has been, up to now, a limited war by Russia.  Take note that no government buildings were ever destroyed in Kiev. The roads, bridges and railways have been spared, until yesterday, when railways were hit.

We hear how we are sending many weapons into Ukraine and have not yet heard of any shipments destroyed enroute. Is this possible? Or has Russia refrained from targeting much of the infrastructure of the country, except in the east.

We have been told for decades that Russia has a huge network of spies everywhere, how hard is it to note when arms are leaving Poland into Ukraine. Somehow, some things just don't add up.

I would expect that Russia could take out every highway and rail bridge in the country in a couple of days and maybe they now will.

As far as Russia having a hard time with logistics, how hard can it be when Russia borders Ukraine, Much like us resupplying troops in Canada.

While Russia has used this war to test some of their advanced weapons, most of the munitions expended  have most likely been in warehouses since the cold war days. Artillery rounds and explosives have a very long life. 

Then there is the cost, Zelensky made a point of insisting they had better not come "empty handed", so far it seems we have pledged over $15 billion in aid. We also promised NATO members that we will replace anything that they send to Ukraine. The 20 old Russian migs from Poland was a good example, they wanted us to replace them with new U.S. jets. I expect NATO will dump all their old hardware in the hope of receiving new equipment from the U.S.

Then there is $7 billion a month to keep the Ukrainian government afloat, so we may be expected to come up with $10 billion a month for the duration. I am sure the Europeans will kick in a couple 100 million. Then there is the rebuilding of Ukraine, likely to be a Trillion dollars or more, depending how long hostilities last. It could last for years. So, it will not just be Russia that will be bleeding.

The point is that there was an opportunity to avoid this war. Ukraine could have been the most prosperous country in Europe. But we could not give up on a policy of "containment" and NATO expansion. Ukraine's future is now poverty and dependence for decades to come.

Is Ukraine the last best hope for Biden?

DIVERSION FROM DISMAL FAILURE ON CRIME, BORDER, ENERGY AND SCHOOL INDOCTRINATION  

DEAD UKRAINIANS JUST SOME COLLATERAL DAMAGE

This morning the collaborator national press is praising the Biden response to the Ukraine War. We are told the Ukrainians are winning the war, that Russia's military and domestic politics in in chaos and that the brilliant policies of Biden are working like magic. 

We see the top policy team making photo ops in Kiev and promises of supplying Ukraine with the weapons that will force Russia out of the country. Of course, perception is reality in American politics, but reality is more death and destruction in Ukraine. Perception can change public opinion and even win elections, but it cannot win actual physical combat. It cannot supply food to the starving, it cannot make a cold house warm.

The consequences of the hoped for prolonged war in Ukraine will come home to the world in the later part of this year. The democrats had better hope that it will not come too early and destroy the narrative of our brilliant foreign policy, eventually perceptions will be changed by reality.

The reality is that the coming food scarcity after this years harvest, plagued by shortages of fertilizer, a chaotic indecision by farmers as to how proceed as to what to plant will combine to make the world a more unstable place. The breakdown in world supply chains will just make it more of a crisis. 

This coupled with obvious intention of China to demonstrate just how dependent the world is on basic essential goods that they are slowing under the cover of Covid lock downs. 

We are still living mostly on last years harvests, our manufacturer stockpiles of material are diminishing, but the narrative is that everything is good. We just need to increase government spending and pretend all is well. We can of course blame all our problems on Vladimir Putin.

While all our foreign policy genius's salivate at the hoped for diminishing and destruction of Russia as a world power we are being invaded by an unarmed mass of low skilled, uneducated future dependents. Our cities are more and more resembling third world countries with crime, drug addiction and unsanitary conditions becoming a permanent way of life. This instability is creating an actual internal migration in the attempt to escape the results of the policies of the democrat party.

A party that is at it root obsessed with race, sexual orientation and the indoctrination of children into destructive practices, while the nation descends into some kind of divided third world chaotic country.

While we continue to pour billions of aid into Ukraine, not 1 cent for border security. While we focus on sexual identity education, very little for job training in the cities. While we lament homelessness and drug induced death, we allow unfettered access to our country of tons of dangerous drugs. 

One can only sumiss, that all these polices are not designed to uplift, bring security either at home or abroad, not improve the lives or families anywhere in the world, but just the intentional evil policy of death, destruction and devolution of human existence.

Political prosecutions of Trump going nowhere.

 SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN THROWN OUT

PATHETIC ATTEMPTS TO DAMAGE TRUMP 

We continually hear of the investigations and coming indictments into Donald Trump's business. Most of the investigations are pathetic, laughable and without merit. It is just another attempt to damage Trump for ever.  So, let's take a look at the accusations levied against Trump's business in New York.

The first is a grand jury that has been meeting in New York city for months. While all the speculation and daily reporting claim that it is a serious investigation it appears even the district attorney fears actually bringing a indictment due to the friviolius nature of the investigation.

It all revolves around the attempted squeeze of his accountant, a person who has been an employee of Trump corporation for decades. If you remember how the Manhattan DA had him perp walked for the media to bring charges of Income tax evasion. The issues were that for 20 years of service Trump gifted him a car and supposedly this elderly man did not pay taxes on the gift. Also, it is reported that Trump paid tuition for one of this mans sons and again failed to pay taxes on the tuition aid. No wonder the DA is hesitant to bring this to trial as he may very well be embarrassed by the whole affair and Trump may be viewed as a loyal and generous employer. Certainly not the result they would want, the appearance of law breaking would be more valuable.

Then there is the obvious political investigation by the partisan New York State Attorney who ran her campaign on "Getting Trump". Her investigation revolves around whether Trump corp. intentionally under estimated the value of his real estate in an effort to reduce his property taxes. A very legal and economic sound tactic used by most real estate owners. Real estate value is a very subjective figure only really validated by an actual sale and it is a continually moving target. The value is determined by the assessment office and can be appealed, a typical practice that is engaged in by many. A charge that is again a joke.

Then the other charge is fraud. They charge that the Trump company inflated the value of their real estate in order to obtain loans from lending institutions. The bank determines the value of any property that is used for collateral or that the bank is loaning money to purchase. While the borrower may claim any amount, the decision is up to the lender to determine the value. Again an ever changing number determined by the market, another joke. All these investigations are just being used to tarnish the reputation and honesty of the Trump business, which until he became a political foo was actually a sound reputation.  

It is doubtful that any of these investigations will ever go to a trial as it will then be revealed the political motivation behind these investigations and also may be proof and evidence upon which Trump will be able to sue for damages.

What has happened to Disney?

A COMPANY THAT HAS MADE ITS LIVING WITH CHILDREN SHOULD BE MORE OBJECTIVE IN THEIR POSITION

THEY MAY HAVE DAMAGED THEIR BRAND PERMANENTLY 

The Disney corporations stance against a Florida law that attempts to shield children under 8 from controversial sexual subjects in schools is an eye opener for many. Why is Disney taking a stand on this subject? 

There has been rumors and allegations before about Disney and their introducing subtle sexual messages in their entertainment, until now, most considered this in the eye of the beholder, but now they can expect to be under closer scrutiny. This, coupled with the appearance that they were partly motivated by pressure from their staff that work at their entertainment parks. It has given the appearance that much of the staff identify with the LGBTQ movemnt.

Why is their staff composed of this fringe minority in what appears to be a majority of their workers? Are these workers given priority hiring by Disney?  Why is such a large segment of this group interested in working at a children's entertainment park?

It is sort of amazing that the Disney executives would not have considered the repercussions of the appearance of their stand on this issue. So far, they have not clarified or walked back their position of fighting to overturn this law. 

So far their stock has dropped about 15% this year and I personally have been told by several women investors that they are liquidating their Disney stock. Whether this distancing from Disney is a long term trend or just blip remains to be seen, but I would expect their theme parks to be under much closer scrutiny. You can expect that some will no longer view Disney as a family entertainment destination.

There was a time when most companies made it practice to stay out of controversial political positions, not today when it seems there is pressure to take sides on every issue. This is much more relevant when a company who makes its living appealing to children makes it known that it is going all out to overturn a law that attempts to insure and protect the innocence of children.