Political revolution in both parties

SANDERS AND TRUMP - SYMPTOMS OF DISCONTENT

REALIGNMENT  LOOKS INEVITABLE

The Sanders and Trump candidacies are a symptom of the revolution that is engulfing both political parties...we are watching the most widespread political realignment since World War 2.

 In the democrat party we see Sanders supported by the younger, more socialist members of the party. This is where the enthusiasm and the energy lies in the party. Hillary Clinton is supported by the ruling power structure of the party. This revolution really began with Barack Obama, who promised to be the outsider in the party and promised hope and change. He has been a disappointment to many in his party, some of whom believe he was too activist and pushed the country too far to the left and some who thought he did not use his power to push even further. The signs that the coalition that was formed in the 1960s is about to dissolve and be replaced by a different coalition are becoming increasingly clear. This is not happening in a vacuum, but is being accelerated by the revolution in the republican party.

Both Sanders and Trump  have questioned the wisdom of our trade policies, these policies were passed in the Clinton years with the support of the establishment republicans. This policy was resisted, by the likes of Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot in the 1992 election. There was weak resistance by the manufacturing unions, but they failed to exert their power on their party. This has been the primary cause of the stagnant wages of the middle class and the so called income inequality. The second place that both Sanders and Trump have broken with the establishment is on our interventionist foreign policy. This policy has been questioned for years, by Pat Buchanan, Ron Paul, Rand Paul and many others. After 14 years of continuous war without any real positive results, the population is moving for a reevaluation of this policy. This is evident when after questioning this policy and placing blame on G.W. Bush, Trump was able to win a majority of the military vote in South Carolina.

The revolution in the republican party has been the hot revolution, mostly because it looks like Trump may very well capture the nomination for the party. If it looks like Sanders is close to actually winning the nomination in his party, I suspect it will also be a hot war. The visceral attacks on Trump started in the first Fox debate, and continued to accelerate to where it is now - a hysteria of accusations that has now become irrelevant. The enthusiasm and energy of the republican party has been generated by Trump's candidacy. Every time anyone has challenged the establishment, they have been met by character assassination and an avalanche of negative campaigning. I saw this when Buchanan won the 1996 primary over Bob Dole....the next morning Buchanan was labeled an anti-Semite, a racist, and an isolationist. We saw the same thing in 2012. When anyone came close to beating Mitt Romney the same tactics were used against Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich. I believe the voters have now become immune to these tactics to the point even legitimate issues are cast aside.

While nothing is for sure, it is very possible if Trump wins the nomination, he will begin to win support from policemen's unions, firemen's unions, trade unions and  manufacturing unions. These have been traditionally democrat voters. I would not be surprised to see the leadership of many of these unions deposed  as they have not delivered by supporting democrats.  I could also see many establishment type republicans move over to the democrat party, particularly those who support open borders and trade policies that benefit international corporations over American workers.

This re-alignment may take several election cycles to accomplish, but the status quo is over. The present status is in its last days. With the energy and excitement in the Sanders and Trump campaigns, it is easy to see the Sanders supporters not being too excited about Clinton. Just look at the vote totals in South Carolina - 737,917 votes were cast for republicans, 367,491 for democrats.  In the other primaries there were more votes for republicans than democrats. When Sanders leaves the race the democrat enthusiasm may very well dry up. Today will be a window into who is going to win the nomination. When it is assured, we will see the endorsements start to flow, and see sides being taken in both parties.


originally published 3/1/16