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Monday, August 3, 2020

U.S. and Europe cornovirus statisitics.

DO LOCK DOWNS JUST PROLONG THE INEVITABLE

END RESULT IS OFTEN THE SAME


It seems many are concerned that corvid-19 infections are now on the rise. While this is happening in the southern and western United States it is also happening in most other parts of the world as well. With the exception of Germany, the infection rates and deaths are mostly comparable. Are we really able to eliminate the spread of this virus, or just slow it and hope to control it?

As of  August 2, the U.S. has 157,935 deaths listed as a result of this virus, this is a death rate of 477 per million.

The combined deaths of 5 major counties in Europe is 149, 275, the combined population of these countries is slightly less than the United States.

Spain 28,445  deaths,   rate of 608 per million.
U.K.   46,193                           680 per million
Italy    25,146                           581 per million
France 30,265                          464 per million
Germany 9,226                        110 per million.

Belgium has the highest death rate in the world of 849 per million.

The United States has tested over 59 million, near 20% of the population.

Sweden which did not shut down, but did recommend social distancing has a death rate of 568 per million. They closed no business or schools and their death rate is comparable to the rest of the Western countries.

It seems this virus slowly increase in numbers, then increases rapidly for approximately 60 days and then declines. This pattern occurred in Europe were it was earlier than the United States, then northeastern United States, now southern and western U.S. Shut down do slow the infection rate but will not eliminate the infection. It is likely that until a vaccine is put into place, which will likely be another year until it is effective, this virus will spread until most all get infected. The key to controlling deaths is for the elderly and people with compromised health to limit their exposure.

The reality is that most Americans do not know anyone who has died of this disease. It then becomes more difficult for people to keep up with the social distancing and masks.

Their is evidence that there are financial incentives for hospitals and the health care industry to report deaths due to corvid, even when that may not be the case, as they will be compensated by the federal government at a higher rate.

There are multitudes of stories about inaccurate results of tests. Again is there a financial incentive to have more positive cases and thereby create a demand for more testing. 

The problem is that much to do with this virus is now complicated by political considerations.

Trumps early touting the use of Hydroxychloroquine, which costs by the way $23 for 60 200 mg tablets, has been demonized by the media even though it is still used by many healthcare professionals and they claim that if started early in the onset of this disease limits the progression of the virus.

At the same time Remdesivir, which costs $3120. for a 5 day treatment, and has similar results has been touted as acceptable.

We can expect this virus to be an issue for the foreseeable future, but I expect the daily deaths, charts and doomsday predictions will subside after the November election.







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