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Thursday, November 10, 2022

Preparing for the battle of Kherson

 BATTLE MAY BE DECISIVE EVENT OF UKRAINE CONFLICT

SOME PREDICT IT MAY RESEMBLE BATTLE OF STALINGRAD


While it was reported that the Russians have moved out of the city of Kherson, and declared it a major victory for the Ukrainians, it is just the prelude for the real battle that seems to be coming.

In the last few weeks the Russians have evacuated all the residents out of Kherson, a city with a population of 280,000, that is on the west bank of the Dnipro river.  This is very large river and Russia decided it would be vulnerable with the river at its troops back. It is the fourth largest river in Europe and has several Hydroelectric reservoirs on the river, including one just north of Kherson. There seems to be immense preparations for a large scale conflict in this area. Both sides have made accusations that the other side is planning on blowing up the reservoir and flooding the city.

The Russians have built cement plants in the area are are setting up Tank obstacles and are all types of defensive positions. 

The Ukrainians are massing tanks and supplies in the region. The United States and the UK have moved adviser troops into Ukraine and the U.S. has appointed a general in charge of the Ukraine operation. It is rumored that the U.S. has enlisted former Syrian rebels to fight in the area. The U.S. has also moved part of the 101st airborne units to the Ukraine border. It it appears all are preparing for a major confrontation.

It seems the Russians have avoided a major battle and often withdrawn when it appeared that one was forming, maybe they just wanted such a battle to be of their choosing. They have recently mobilized an additional 300,000 reservists and some believe more are in the works.The Ukrainians have voiced their concern that this withdrawal may be the setting of a trap for the Ukrainians to enter this deserted city. Up to now, the Russians have not used much of their advanced sophisticated weapons, that may soon change. Also some of the more experienced Russians have been complaining about not fighting in a more aggressive manner. 

Some European leaders have compared the evolving scenario to the battle of Stalingrad, the deadliest battle of WW2. The battle lasted form Aug.23, 1942, until Feb.2, 1943, it is estimated it resulted in 2 million casualties and forced the German army to retreat. It was some of the most brutal urban warfare of WW2..

While it appears this battle is imminent, there is also other developments including the U.S. conveying to Ukraine that they should make it appear they are willing to negotiate, but it does seem that it more of ploy to help with further support of Ukraine.

There are some signs that NATO members are becoming increasingly uneasy with the direction of events. The Germans seem more like they would like to not get further embroiled in this conflict. The French have stated that they would not respond with nuclear weapons unless their country was attacked. Biden keeps warning the Russian not to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. 

It seems that he does not believe that the Russians, if in a situation that they believe would be a existential threat to their country, would not target the source of the threat, rather than the proxy Ukrainians. It appears that the coming winter will be a period of historical events in more ways than one.

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