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Friday, November 18, 2022

Russia, oops, Ukraine strikes Poland

 SADLY, DESPERATION RESULTS IN ULTIMATE POWER PLAY

MANY BELIEVE NATO/RUSSIAN WAR WILL BE BIG STORY




The big story of the week was that Russia had struck Poland with a missile attack. The Media quickly ran with the story with the usual "Breaking News" report that Russia had struck Poland with a missile and killed Polish citizens. While it was true that Poland was struck by a missile and yes, Polish farmers were killed, it was made clear within an hour on the internet that the missile was S300 air defense missile. Even the U.S. quickly dismissed the idea that Russia had attacked Poland, but the story continued until finally saner heads prevailed and then claimed that the missile was intended to stop incoming Russian missiles but went astray.

Zelensky continued to claim it was a Russian missile for a few more days, until finally walking it back, probably due to a reprimand from his benefactor the U.S. 

Several things to consider about this missile. The S300 missile has around a 100 mile range. Poland to Russia is 714 miles. Then of course the missiles incoming into Ukraine are traveling from east to west. Air-defense missiles would be traveling west to east to intercept incoming missiles. It is very unlikely that any air-defense missile could go astray and travel in the opposite direction.

It seems that the U.S. is capable of tracking any missiles that are flying over, into and from Ukraine. It is very likely that Ukraine intentionally fired this missile into Poland to bring about an article 5 NATO response and possibly WW3.

No matter what, this was a very dangerous move, Poland is not happy, U.S. is not happy and Russia is going to use this as a political weapon against Zelensky. It is likely Ukraine believed that this missile would land in some empty farm field, but sadly some very unlucky farmers were in that field at the time. Many are now worried about the possibility of other such attempts in the future.

It is beginning to appear that all the NATO readiness is meant to intimidate Russia into backing down in this conflict. It may also be now clear that actual NATO entering this conflict is not as imminent as some may have thought, including Ukraine. While victory has been predicted by the WEST for near 10 months, it is becoming clear that will not be the case.

General Miley remarked this week, I am sure with White House approval, that Ukraine will not be able to recapture their lost territory. This message may just be the first that the U.S. and other NATO members are nearing the limit of their ability to change the direction of this conflict without considerable risk to themselves.

This will be a very serious political risk for Zelensky, because he has gone all in, at the direction of the Biden administration in his unwillingness to negotiate both before and after the start of this conflict. 

Any compromise will also have political risk for the U.S.,who has led the handling of this crisis and has insisted that Russia must be defeated. While the cost to the U.S. is immense and growing larger, it is mostly money and weapons, which can be replaced. The rest of NATO is most likely becoming increasingly skeptical about the direction of this conflict, their risk is now becoming critical as winter approaches.


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