Russia: Divided on strategy, United on goals.

 RELUCTANT WAR, NOW IRREVERSIBLE

WAR OF ATTRITION OR OVERWHELMING DESTRUCTION

While many have speculated that there would be an uprising in Russia against this war, that they would collapse from within, or that Putin would be removed from office, none of those things are apparent. The fact is this war will continue until the objectives are attained either by the West or Russia. Russia is unified in their goal for Ukraine, not being a member of NATO and not a future military threat to Russia or the former Russian areas of Ukraine. As for strategy, there seem to be 2 opposing camps.

The present strategy is to fight a limited war of attrition, using mostly ground weapons and stand off weapons in an effort to minimize Russian casualties. To fight this war in eastern Ukraine, 700 mile from Ukrainian supply origins in Poland and Romania. To fight mostly a defensive conflict until the Ukrainian army and the NATO suppliers are exhausted by this war. Until western Europe finds itself with economic and social problems being more of a threat than a non NATO Ukraine. Until the U.S. realizes that they have divided the world into 2 camps and the other camp, while not wishing to be an adversary, does think it is time to form a separate economic reality without the U.S. as the cornerstone. 

This strategy seems to hinge on the hope of a wearing down without an escalation into a global conflict. It also is rooted in the belief of many in Russia that Ukrainians are their brothers and would rather not completely destroy the country or the people. Many, including Putin, believe in preserving the historic cities of Kiev and Odessa and not completely destroying the infrastructure of Ukraine, if at all possible.

It seems the majority of Russians do understand the existential threat to their nation, even while they, including much of the leadership, did not want this war. Those debates are over and now it is a war to the conclusion.

The other strategy voiced by Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner group, and I suspect many others, is that Russia should go to total mobilization and fight a scorched earth battle to get this conflict over quickly. This would entail the complete destruction of all government buildings in Kiev, all the bridges across the Dnieper river and the use of  Russia's, so far unused sophisticated weaponry. 

While either strategy would eventually end in the similar result, the present strategy is working, and is in the best long term interest of Russia after this war concludes. It minimizes casualties on both sides, preserves the possibility of a future Ukraine and has enabled Russia to have some benefit in world public opinion. The West, who is bombarded daily with propaganda about this war, does not understand that this war is viewed differently by much of the world. 

We can expect this war to continue, and we can expect further death and destruction in Ukraine, the possible economic decline of Europe and a duel world economic system. While Russia may have been damaged by this war, their future in this new exonymic reality will be brighter. The United States, the actual architect of this conflict will not prosper from this war but has actually hastened its own decline, both economically and ultimately in world public opinion..