Ukraine begins counteroffensive probes.

 REJECTS ANY PEACE PLAN THAT SURRENDERS TERRITORY

REALITY OF SITUATION WILL SOON BE UNDENIABLE

It appears that Ukraine has begun serious probing assaults to find weak spots in the Russian defenses. So far, Russia has prevented 4 of the 5 assaults and stopped Ukrainian advances. The 1 advance with some limited success will likely be soon repulsed. It appears it is now time for the last ditch attempt to retake ground and hope for a positive negotiation. It is most likely to result in many casualties and very limited success. Maybe the west can then declare victory and go home.

While Ukraine has been preparing for this much anticipated counter offensive, Russia has been continuously destroying Ammo supplies and materials in Ukraine. They have severally damaged the Ukrainian air defenses and Ukraine does not have a serious air support for their offensive. The only possibility is a NATO provided air cover which would be a serious escalation and likely bring about all out war with NATO. While the U.S. and UK may actually desire this result, it is unlikely Germany and France want to go to war with Russia, as their territory would become part of the battlefield.

Indonesia, who was hosting a world intelligence community meeting in Singapore this past week, offered to mediate a peaceful resolution.  It was soundly rejected by Ukraine and the West. 

Indonesia's plan would call for a ceasefire, a UN buffer zone between the adversaries  and UN supervised elections in the disputed provenances. so far NATO and Ukraine are demanding complete withdrawal from eastern Ukraine as any condition of peace.

Russia will not cede those parts of Ukraine that have had referendums to join Russia and are now considered part of Russia. Russia will not accept a frozen conflict that will allow Ukraine to be further armed for another war in the future. Russia will not accept Ukraine as a member of NATO. Only defeat of Russia on the battlefield with change this stance. That would likely only result from all out war with NATO and the destruction of most of Europe and maybe the Northern Hemisphere.

I would expect that the reality of this situation will become apparent within the next few months. Then the West must decide if they are now willing to accept a neutral non aligned status, of what remains of Ukraine, or be ready to enter the conflict in a real all out war with Russia or allow Russia to destroy Ukraine until they can no longer resist.

The West and Ukraine rejected the offer of a security for Europe plan that provided for a neutral non militarized Ukraine. Ukraine is now economically destroyed, they have lost over half their population from war or fleeing war and most will never return. Ukraine has been set back for decades and it may get a lot worse. This could have all been avoided except for the hubris, arrogance and dismissal by U,S. and Uk architects of chaos who were willing to have the Ukrainians die and be destroyed for their dream of global control.