Saturday melodrama on the "Road to Moscow"

 YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN, ULTIMATE EXAMPLE OF "LOOSE CANNON"

DISPUTE OVER STRATEGY , WAGNER ROLE, AND CONTRACTS

A 24 hour Russian melodrama played out Saturday, as the world watched, not sure what what was happening. In fact, there is still confusion as to what has happened and I would expect lots of speculation will continue for a long time.

The saga of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the spokesman for the infamous Wagner group,  has been going on for months. The whole show was often questioned as to its motives, its reality, or was it a high stakes publicity stunt. Saturday seems to be the culmination and maybe the end of this dramatic phase of the Ukraine conflict. 

Ok, so there is lots of speculation, and that in itself may be the just another speculation as to what has happened. Here is just some of the speculation followed with what are pretty solid provable facts.

Speculations 1, It was a publicity stunt, a very dangerous one, that was intended to shock the Russian population into the seriousness of the situation. Like in much of the world, average citizens are oblivious to the risks that are growing in this conflict. 

Speculation 2. It was sneaky way of putting Prigozhin in Belarus to ready for an offensive on Kiev.It seems there are actual preparations for a new thrust by Russia in the northern part of the conflict.

Speculation 3. The West and Ukraine has flipped Prigozhin with promises of a role in a new government in Russia. Very unlikely.

Speculation 4. It was a opportunity to smoke out any possible traitorous players in the  Russian military who would come out and support Prigozhin.

While some of that maybe true the facts are most likely much more simple. Prigozhin and Wagner have become folk heroes in Russia. They are very popular and have been very visible in there videos and dramatic tirades for months. Some wonder, why this was allowed or was it felt to be a good patriotic stimulus to national support. 

Wagner is not a private mercenary group, like the U.S. Blackwater group. They are portrayed as such to be an end run around constitutional restriction of Russia concerning using there troops overseas. They are funded and take their directives from the Russian military.

As  Prigozhin and Wagner gained fame in the battle for Bakhmut, it became evident that Prigozhin, as many do, became addicted to the attention, fame and notoriety. While not actually the commander of Wagner, he is in fact the representative or spokesman. Wagner has several very capable  commanders who keep a low profile, while they are also well known. I expect all this was in cooperation with the Russian military and the political leadership. All wars need heros or leaders to be proud of. 

It seemed there was a dispute about strategy. Prigozhin was clear he wanted to be much more aggressive. He believed that the slow deliberate decimation of the Ukrainian military was costing more Russian lives and would wanted to speed up the progress. While he blamed this strategy on the military leaders, it was supported by the political leadership. He blamed them for not giving him the provisions to speedily end the battle. At one point he threatened to quit and ran videos of tirades against the military leadership, accusing them of corruption and incompetence. In the past history of Russia he would have been long gone.

It did seem that the battle for Bakhmut was accelerated and after the consummation, Wagner was given time off for R&R and refurbishment. It was all intended to change the make-up of Wagner and ease Prigozhin  out of control. After all they did not want to make changes in the middle of a battle nor appear to be unfair to a national hero.

It has been reported that Wagner fighters were given a deadline for when they were to sign contracts with the regular Russian military and that time is supposed to be in July. It was also rumored that upcoming offensive for Karkov would be using Wagner, but under the control of the Russian military. It was likely to be a nice way of moving Prigozhin out with the least collateral damage.

While many proclaim this to be the end of Putin and the end of Russia it is very unlikely, it is a saga that will now most likely soon become a bump in the road. Military leaders and generals have historically become in conflict with political leaders. Patten with Eisenhower. MacArthur with Truman. Most of the time the Generals are allowed to retire and go away. This is likely to be the situation now or he will just disappear. 

While many in the west speculate that without Putin, Russia would be another country, it is again a delusion, the leadership is widespread and unified on their objectives. While it is true that there is pressure to get this over with quicker,  so far, Putin has been very methodical and restrained in his strategy and it has been successful.