What is the battlefield like in Ukraine?

 UKRAINE'S DIFFICULT CHALLENGE AGAINST RUSSIAN DEFENSE

DESCRIPTION OF RUSSIAN DEFENSES

The Ukrainian counter-offensive is now 11 days along and it is now becoming clear the challenges it is experiencing. In the fall of last year Russia decided to change strategy and move to consolidating its gains and readying the battlefield for the inevitable battle that is now underway. The Russians may very well be also readying for an all out war with NATO.

The Russian defense is made up of 4 lines of defense, the first is called a security zone, this is defended  by mobile units of armour, artillery, drones and ground forces. They are backed up by stand off air support. This entire area is also mined extensively. The Ukrainians need to use mine clearing equipment before they can move forward, this is then followed by armoured vehicles and tanks. The Russian strategy has been to allow the Ukrainians to make some progress, then hit the lead armored vehicle, this now often blocks the forward movement of the followers, then they must turn around or go around. Either way they then are vulnerable to drone, anti tank weapons, artillery fire and attack from the air. If they move out of the cleared area they are vulnerable to hitting mines. So far this situation has resulted in heavy losses of Ukrainian equipment and manpower. While they have taken over some territory and some small villages, it must be noted that the Russians often fallback in certain areas, hoping to lure the enemy into vulnerable positions. They also then drop mines in their rear from the air before they counter offense. At present it is a very dangerous situation that they have not yet found a tactic to overcome.

So far, the Ukrainians have commited 3 of their 9 Brigades. So far, they have not yet reached the Russians first line of defense, which is made up of tank obstacles, large trenches and also mined. The Russians have spent 6 months manufacturing a system of defenses probably not seen since the world wars. After the first line of defense is a second and third line. Then there are around 200,000  reserves in the rear.

The Ukrainians lack any real air support, as their air force has mostly been destroyed. without air support they are in an unsustainable vulnerable situation.

The Russians have been systematically destroying Ukrainian supply lines, their air defenses and troops way behind the actual fighting front. This has also been going on for many months. The Russian forces mostly control the sky. 

While there are press releases from Washington and Kiev that often paint a rosy picture, the reality is a very dire future for the Ukrainian military. It will continue without a change of strategy. Without air support, which can only be provide by NATO planes and pilots, the Ukrainians are being asked to do the impossible. 

While a year and half ago Russia would have been in trouble if it had to confront a NATO offensive, it may no longer be a sure thing. The Russians have mobilized, place their industry into a wartime mode and understand that they need to prepare for an allout NATO confrontation. There are many who do not believe NATO is physically prepared to engage Russia in this present conflict. The danger is that the NATO leaders may hope to prevail by spinning a narrative, without facing the reality of this dangerous situation.