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Friday, June 16, 2023

Without air support, Ukraine is on suicide mission.

 AS LOSSES MOUNT, NEW STRATEGY IS NEEDED

WITHOUT SOME SUCCESS, MORALE WILL SOON EVAPORATE


After 13 days of the much anticipated Ukrainian counter offensive it is becoming clear, that the assumptions that the Russians would panic and be overrun by the Ukrainians is not reality. This offensive is near impossible without any air support to protect advancing troops from above. This defensive zone is heavily mined, so besides clearing mines the advancing troops are sitting ducks for artillary and then attack from the air by drones and helicopters. It is  a killing field that has resulted in heavy losses of equipment and manpower. How long can NATO leaders expect these troops to keep doing this?

Many had forecasted just this situation, but it seems NATO demanded Ukraine move forward even when it was clear it was a gigant gamble. It is easy to gamble with lives of people many miles away, it cannot continue.

We are beginning to see vehicle crews now abandon their vehicles as soon as they see their fellow crews being analiated, they know they are next. It soon becomes clear that they are only going to die, if this strategy is repeated. You can not have a viable offensive against heavily defensive positions without air cover, when the enemy owns the air above you, you are in fact a sitting duck.

This is the third army assembled with the help of NATO arms, materials and logistics. The first army was developed between 2014 and the onset of this conflict, It was badly decimated with the initial fighting, The second army was assembled for the fall offensive that saw the undermanned Russians withdraw from Kharkov and Kherson and then mobilize more troops and assume this defensive strategy. This third army was assembled in the last 6 months with NATO tanks, fighting vehicles and materials for this counteroffensive. It has already lost near 30 % of those weapons and a at least 15% of their manpower.

Now there is talk of building a 4th army with the necessary aircraft to provide cover for the Ukrainian army. This will take at least another 6 months. Can the poor soldiers on the ground really be expected to keep doing this?

The only other option is to provide NATO air cover with U.S. and NATO planes and pilots.  You can bet it is now being considered, but they now have only weeks to do this if they expect to save this army. This will subject these planes to sophisticated Russian air defenses, which are now tuned up and very effective. It will also be, in effect, WW3.





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