Ukraine offensive over, Russia readies offensive.

 STRATEGY SEEMS TO BE ABOUT TO BE SWAPPED

UKRAINIANS SURRENDERING INCREASES

Reports from Ukraine indicate that the 4 month long Ukrainian offensive is just about over. While there may be some last ditch attempts to break the Russian defense, it appears there is no credible ability to make any serious advances.

At the same time, Russia is setting the stage for a return to the offensive by preparing the plans in the northern area. They have been systematically destroying supply routes and infrastructure of the Ukrainian army in the northern part of the conflict line. Some anticipate that this is were the Russians will begin their new offensive. British intelligence claims that the Russians plan to moving west, capturing Karkov and everything east of the Dnieper river. This is a natural dividing line of Ukraine, and it is also likely they will target capturing Odessa, the last remaining port for Ukraine and a vulnerability to Crimea.

When this is accomplished, Russia will be ready to negotiate some sort of long term arrangement.

It is also reported that this will not be a rapid blitzkrieg attack but a slow, grinding methodical progression.The increased use of Russian airpower will be more available, since Ukraine air defensivies have been seriously compromised.

It is also reported from numerous sources that the rate of surrendering Ukrainian servicemen is increasing. The Russians have instituted a radio channel specifically for anyone desiring to surrender with instructions on how to safely surrender and are promising food, shelter and medical care. They claim that over 10,000 have surrendered using this method.

It seems the Ukrainian military is made up of conscripts who are just trying to survive and those willing to fight to the end. It can be very dangerous for Ukrainians to be suspected of willing to give up as they can be imprisoned or worse. 

While this conflict may continue for months, it is clear that the present offense/defense strategy is about to switch sides and without some sort of serious intervention by NATO troops the results are very predictable.

Were Epstein's women a compulsion or a tool?

EPSTEIN MAY HAVE BEEN IN THE COMPROMISE BUSINESS

ENTREPRENEUR OR EMPLOYEE

Jeffrey Epstein has been in the news for months, his arrest, disclosures about his associations with people of influence, and his questionable death. It is assumed he was just a pervert that favored very young women, some under age. It is insinuated that anyone who had contact with Epstein was also involved with underage women. While some of this may be true, there are certainly a lot of unanswered questions.

Epstein was born in Brooklyn to middle class parents in 1953. He was assumed to be a gifted student graduating from High school at 16. He went on to college but never completed his studies. He taught Physics and Mathematics at a private school the 1970's .

In 1976 he went to work at Bear Stearns and by 1980 he had moved up to a limited partner. He specialized in advising wealthy clients and made many contacts in the rich and famous circles. He was regarded a financial wiz and had an outgoing and friendly persona. He opened his own business in 1981 after being involved in some irregularities with Bear Stearns. He specialized in recovering assets that were lost to investment fraud, sort of a high powered collection agency. It was in this era that he became in contact with powerful people who were involved in the International arms trade and some high government officials. He confided to some that he belonged to the intelligence community. It was also insinuated that during his first prosecution for trafficking in underage women the prosecutors were led to believe he was an intelligence employee.

In 1986 he became associated with billionaire Leslie Wexler who owned Limited and Victoria Secret. In 1991 he was granted power of Attorney and full power to manage all the Wexler Assets.

In the early 1990's  Epstein's fortune took a leap forward. During the 1990's he purchased a residence in Palm Beach, investment properties in Paris, France, a ranch in New Mexico, the largest residence in Manhattan, 21,000 sq. ft. and a private island in the Virgin Islands. It was in the early 1990's that he met Ghislaine Maxwell, the daughter of British media Tycoon Robert Maxwell. She moved to New York shortly after the death of her father, who was found floating in the Atlantic, it was ruled an accidental death, but many believed he was murdered.

Robert Maxwell was a survivor of the Holocaust, a member of the British government, it was claimed that he had connections to MI6, KGB and Mossad. He was a flamboyant member of parliament, a war hero and a mover in British politics and business.

So, it is assumed that Epstein was a rich pervert who used his contacts with the rich and famous associates to blackmail them for favors etc. Just some of the people who traveled and attended functions with Epstein, were George Mitchell, former Democratic senate leader, Prince Andrew, Bill Clinton, George Stephanopoulos, Katie Couric, Woody Allen, Harvey Weinstein, He was well acquainted with Rupert Murdock, Mike Bloomberg, Richard Branson, Michael Jackson, Alec Baldwin, the Kennedys, Rockefellers and Rothschilds, Tony Blair, Saudi Prince Bin Salman and many more. He was on the board of Rockefeller university, a member of the Trilateral Commission and Council of Foreign relations.

He was instrumental in forming the Clinton Global initiative and raised money for Harvard University and many science and mathematics endeavors.

Epstein was associated with the leading movers and shakers of the country, in philanthropy, academia, business and politics.

Why were they all willing and possibly eager to be in Epstein's circle? It could have been it was an opportunity to network with other wealthy, influential and powerful people.

All this, and no one has yet to uncover were his wealth came from, or were he held it. It is assumed it was held in off shore accounts. Very little is known about what he was actually doing to make a living. He did not charge people to go on trips to his Island. He paid all the employee's including the women involved in his endeavors. He held meetings and seminars in Science, philanthropy, investments,  etc. He often transported attendees at his functions on his private jet. What was Epstein's real business?

It has been reported that his Manhattan mansion was fully wired for sound and video. There was a secret room, fully staffed, that monitored everything that went on. The room was equipped with sleeping and bathroom facilities. Everything was wired for sound and video at his Palm beach residence and his Island in the Virgin Island.

It has long been the modus operandi of intelligence agencies to compromise people with influence or information with whatever their vice should be, sex, drugs, infidelity, homosexuality or entrap them with crooked business opportunities. While most people who are offered these entrapments will reject them, if carefully nurtured and cultivated in a safe trusted environment some will be compromised. These compromises can then be filed away and used in the future, possibly many years in the future. This could be an op-ed either supporting or in opposition to some proposal. It could be financial support for some supposed good cause. It could be a crucial vote on some legislation. The greater the compromise the greater the leverage.

The compromise could be an actual illegal or illicit act or possibly just a photo with an underage girl who asked a famous person for a picture to send home to her mom.

J.Edgar Hoover has been alleged to have dirt on everyone in government and owed his lifetime position to the leverage he had on those in office.

It seems that Epstein's move to this kind of partying and close encounters began with his association with Ghislaine Maxwell, who it is alleged was the procurer of these young women and the manager of Epstein's affairs. She took up residence just down the street in Manhattan.  One has to wonder if she was the real handler of this compromise business and Epstein was the schmoozer, good time guy who could gain the Trust of those involved.

The question is, was Epstein an entrepreneur in his own business or was he on the payroll for someone or some group who paid him and Ghislaine Maxwell very well for the information they could collect and provide. While all this is supposedly under investigation, few really believe that we will ever know.


originally published 12/30/19

9/28/23,  

Four years and no more information on Epstein, Maxwell or what happened to all the tapes, videos and lists of Epstein's contacts.

No more information as to where the money came from.

No media stories, 

No FBI investigation, all gone, all over, it is just another indication of just how corrupt and out of control things have become in the USA.

Billions on foreign aid in new budget.

 BUYING FRIENDS AND INFLUENCE IS GETTING MORE EXPENSIVE

$63 BILLION FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT

There is no limit to how much must be invested or spent to secure friends and allies. The latest budget is bursting with new spending in foreign lands. The U.S. agency for international development is getting $63 billion to provide money for new infrastructure around the world including $7.2 billion for the pacific islanders. This includes green projects and other cause all at the expense of U.S. taxpayers.

Then there is another immediate $28 billion for Ukraine that is expected to be enhanced to over $100 billion in the coming year. This money will offer new weapons, but also pay fire fighters, first responders, government workers, their healthcare and pensions. In fact, Ukraine is now solely supported by the United states, likely receives more money than any U.S. state.

Earlier the government set aside over $9 billion for spreading democracy around the world. often through Non-government agency's that attempt to move other countries political systems to be more favorable to U.S. interests. 

The new defense budget is requesting $882 billion and with all the congressional and senate add ons will be the first $1 Trillion defense budget. Much of this money is spent on maintaining the 750 bases in 80 countries. Much of this money goes to foreign governments and suppliers who become dependent on U.S. dollars and hence are our paid friends. 

We could go on, but the reality is the /federal government is spending far above the level of sustainability. With a debt of over $33 Trillion and now expected to grow by $2 trillion in the next year, we can expect a further loss of the buying power of the dollar, increased prices for everything and a steady squandering of the wealth of the country. 

So in the next week we can hear the big spenders in Washington and its complicit media bellowing how the radicles in congress want to shut the government down. The spending will be approved, the government will continue in its delusions until it all collapses. Then we can hear who they will blame, but the bill will be paid by all Americans in one way or another.

Russian Ukraine strategy and nuclear threat.

 RUSSIA UNLIKELY TO NEED NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN UKRAINE

IF CONFLICT GOES NUCLEAR. UKRAINE WILL NOT BE THE TARGET

We continue to hear narratives that Russia could resort to tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Mostly the claim is that if Russia would be losing they would resort to nuclear weapons in desperation. Russia is in no need to use nuclear weapons to defeat Ukraine, even with the support of NATO.

The fact is that war is not with Ukraine, but with the United States. The reality is that the European NATO participants would never have engaged in this conflict if they had understood the consequences. The consequences that are now becoming reality for the European allies.

With U.S. planning, prompting, and faulty intelligence analysis they were able to persuade the NATO members that NATO expansion was a low risk endeavour and the Russia would either back down or be economically devastated by a conflict in Ukraine. They were sold a win, win bill of goods that has gone terribly bad, especially for the Ukrainians and the European NATO members. It is now becoming obvious that most would want out of this if they could. Sadly, there is now no way out with a positive political, economic or societal  result. 

If this conflict continues on its present course, Ukraine will not recover for generations. It will be a decades long economic burden for all involved. Russia is well aware of the present trend and understands that Europe will need to make a decision about its future very soon. Continuing on this path it is without a doubt going to lead to political and economic devastation. This is Russia's strategy, It is a long range attrition strategy for all those who are on the other side of this conflict. Realistically Russia is in the more secure position. It has energy and food, it is self sufficient, it can outlast Europe. 

I would expect that if given the opportunity, Europe would exit this tragedy quickly, but they are under the power in many way of the United States and the UK, who it seems is willing to continue this war rather admit failure or a rejection of the policy they have nurtured for so long. The lives of Ukrainians and the economic survival of Europe are just so much collateral damage in this struggle between the U.S. and Russia.

While many in the U.S. have refused to listen to the warnings from Moscow and have continued to minimize the dangers of an escalating conflict, the danger is not Nuclear weapons in Ukraine, but nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia. One danger is that the U.S. will pre-emtivly attack Moscow, to overthrow the government and use the excuse that intelligence revealed Russia was about to launch a nuclear war. 

Then the other danger is that Russia should perceive that this conflict is going to continue until there is nuclear confrontation and they would best be served if it was undertaken at their initiative. If they come to believe this is inevitable, then the initiator would have an advantage.

Any such war would be devastating for the U.S. and Russia, not to mention the rest of the world, but that is the real risk. We can expect that strategists on both sides have calculated how they may be able to survive, some may even like their odds. After all they liked their odds at the onset of this conflict and still seem to find it all acceptable.

Is NATO and U.S. participating in Ukraine conflict?

 FURTHER ESCALATION WILL SOON RESULT IN NATO LOSES

UKRAINE CANNOT WIN WITHOUT DIRECT ASSISTANCE

While we hear that Ukraine is still advancing and that Russia may collapse at any time, it is a lot of misinformation. The Ukrainians have advanced slightly in near 4 months. Have lost over 40,000 troops and much of the equipment it had collectd for this offensive. The Russians have held their defenses and sometimes withdrawn to more favorable defensive positions. There has not been, nor does it appear that any breakthrough is now possible.

We see the escalation in the use of western drones and missiles in attempts to damage Crimea. These attacks are made possible by surveillance provide by the U. S. air resources in the Black Sea. This assistance is also being used to provide targeting information, this is direct participation in this conflict and it is only a matter of time that those U.S. assets will be neutralized by Russia. The question is how are we prepared to respond to this inevitable situation.

There are also indications that some of the British storm shadow missiles are being launched from NATO aircraft flying out of Romania. This is again direct participation, if true.

General Milly has admitted that there is a space in the pentagon that directly manages the war from Washington, He admits he is in daily contact with the Ukrainian military. It is a fact that there is coordination between the U.S. and Ukrainian military. This is direct participation.

There have been reports, although the names and ranks of the alleged soldiers have not been released, of a Leopard tank destroyed in Ukraine manned by German military. If this is true it will not go well in Germany.

We also see that Polish PM and has declared that Ukraine is now in a very dangerous situation, likening it to trying to save a drowning person, they may take the rescuers down to the same fate. Poland has also declared no more military aid to Ukraine. The European members are all bracing for a difficult winter with energy shortages and possible civil unrest. This war of attrition is taking a toll on the European supporters of this conflict.

In the U.S. Biden has asked for $28 billion more aid for Ukraine immediately and $100 billion for the next year. All while the U.S. debt passed $33 billion this week. It is a fact that the conflict is attritioning the U.S. that just piles on more debt.

Without western air support or direct military involvement, this conflict is soon going to collapse. Any further direct involvement will then open the possibility of even more dire consequences. There is no winning result on the horizon.

Unlikely cold warriors, Canada and India.

 JUSTIN TRUDEAU EARNS ANOTHER F FOR DIPLOMACY

IS TRUDEAU JUST ANOTHER LAPDOG FOR WASHINGTON?

So, the diplomatic fire fight escalates between Canada and India. It seems this started when India's PM Narendra Modi complained to Trudeau about Canada's support for Khalistan separatists. This happened at the G20 meeting in India. Trudeau then had problems with his accomodations and was also stranded in India for a few day due to plane trouble. It is the second time that Trudeau has been dressed down by a leader of a very big Asian country. The first was few years ago when the Chinese leader XI publicly embarrassed Trudeau for sharing with the media the contents of a private conversation. Whether Trudeau is just dumb or needed to share that he actually had a conversation with someone is not known.

The whole thing blew up when as soon a Trudeau got home he made a speech and accused India of assassinating a Khalistan separatist leader in British Columbia earlier in the year. Trudeau offered no evidence except he stated that intelligence had concluded that the Indian government was involved. Sounds so familiar, some now wonder if this prompting came from intelligence from Canada's southern neighbor.

In retaliation, India has demanded much of Canada's embassy staff leave the country and has now stated they will be limiting Visa's for Canadian citizens, many of whom are of Indian descent.

The whole thing is out of character for both Canada and India, except that it seems there is a lot of suspicion that Washington may be using Canada to increase division and unrest in India. Earlier in the year it is alleged that Washington has been attempting to sow division between Modi and Indians Muslim population, now with the Khalistan separatists. Much of this has to do with India wanting to be a neutral player in the present geopolitical conflict. There is pressure being exerted on India to support Ukraine and also to forgo trade with Russia. 

It seems now it has become the norm for any attempts at division or chaos to immediately be blamed on Washington. It may take a long time for the United States to redeem its reputation, if even possible, with the rest of the world.

Is Poland the first to say enough of Ukraine conflict?

 POLAND ENDS MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO UKRAINE

SENDS UKRAINE A BILL FOR $23 BILLION

It appears that Poland has decided it is time for it to end support for the Ukraine conflict. Several disputes have festered for some time, one is the large number of refuges in the country, which could grow larger from an escalated conflict. Another is the surplus grain coming from Ukraine that has the Polish farmers very unhappy. Then of course, there are upcoming elections which begin on October 15. The mood of the electorate is becoming less supportive of this conflict.

Then of course there is the pending lawsuit by Ukraine over the grain embargo by Poland. Ukraine has threatened to sue Poland it if it does not allow Ukraine grain into the country. This act of arrogance and hubris seems to be the last straw for Poland. Maybe Ukraine believes that Biden can intervene and force Poland to submit, but it will not go well with the Polish farmers and electorate.

Ukraine is very dependent on Poland for the ability to be used as a conduit for arms shipments into Ukraine. Its lack of diplomacy and never ending demands may spell the demise of Ukraine. Poland has been very supportive, but it has limits to what is possible and remain a unified government. Either way, without Poland, Ukraine will be in a more precarious position.

It is unlikely that Poland will reverse its position on military assistance, it is also unlikely that Ukraine will ever pay any bill to supportive countries. Many counties now understand that they cannot keep up this support indefinitely. 

Several countries at the UN meeting have advised Zelensky it is time for negotiations to end this conflict. While Zelensky is now in Washington with his usual list of demand, he has not been welcomed to address congress and it appears the handwriting is on the wall. Support is weakening in many places and many have come to realize this is all a futile endeavor. 

U.S. deficit up 170%, 2023 deficit now $1.39 Trillion.

 COST OF FINANCING DEBT SKYROCKETING

FOREIGN HOLDERS LIQUIDATING

The U.S. debt and deficit is now on a path to unsustainability. If the present trend continues, it will spell serious trouble for the U.S. economy. There really doesn't seem to be much serious concern in Washington. It appears Washington is ramping up to engage in more spending without any end in sight.

At present 30% of federal government debt is held by foreign countries. The biggest holders are Japan and China, both now in the process of major liquidation of this debt. Much of this is caused by uncertainty of the U.S. economic situation and the fear of some sort of sanctions making recovering this debt unavailable. There are other nations lowering their risk in U.S. debt. Most are replacing this debt with the purchase of physical gold. 

The July treasury auctions placed $102 billion of bonds. It is expected that the next auction will be for even more. 

This all translates into a fast growing bill to service this debt as much of the new debt is at higher rates. The cost of servicing the debt is expected to be up 25% to $652 Billion. 

All this is likely to translate into higher interest rates to entice buyers to assume the higher risk of this debt. It is anticipated that just servicing the debt may account for 25% of future budgets.

Higher interest rates and higher inflation is possibly going to set off the next round of labor disputes, higher prices and the risk of hyperinflation. A snowball effect that is not easily stopped without severe economic medicine.

All this, while Washington is obsessed with more spending for the military, foreign aid and expansion of social programs. A recipe for disaster.

 

Prolonged Ukraine conflict will doom Europe.

 CAN EUROPE, AS WE KNOW IT, SURVIVE A LONG UKRAINE CONFLICT?

CAN MODERN EUROPE SURVIVE ESTRANGED FROM RUSSIA?

At present it seems no one is asking the right questions about the conflict over NATO expansion and Ukraine. The bobble head leaders in both Western and Eastern Europe seem to just keep repeating the U.S. narrative that they will outlast Russia in this economic and military conflict. 

What exactly does outlasting Russia look like and what are the potential results? Russia is not going to be defeated in this conflict even it it requires all out nuclear war. Russia believes, and not without merit, that its very existence is dependent on stopping its encirclement with NATO expansion. Russia also believes that if it has to be permanently separated from economic ties to Europe it is worth the sacrifice. Is Europe realistic and aware of what estrangement from Russia will mean to its economic future?

At present, much of Europe, including Ukraine is still getting oil and gas form Russia, maybe not officially, but by round abouts of the sanctions. Russia could tomorrow just completely stop most of its energy from ending up in Europe. What option would this leave Europe, both economically and socially?

Since the dismantling of the former Soviet Union, Russia had been intent on integrating economically and even somewhat politically with Europe. It was a win, win, situation for both, as Russia had lots of energy, particularly natural gas and Europe had decided it was going to be the bridge fuel until more renewable energy could be developed. Long term reasonable energy contracts were the norm and it provided energy that allowed Europe to operate profitably in competitive world trade. It allowed the cutback in coal production and provided the fuel for a modern economy. That is now soon to be a thing of the past, permanently. Europe, realistically has no real plan B, unless they believe that if Russia is defeated they will have control and access to this energy.  If they believe that, then they are really playing Russian roulette with their future.

The root of this dispute is that as Russia transformed from a communist country, it decide it would be very serious about charting its own future, unlike the other former members of the Soviet Union. It understood the dangers of becoming dependent on western banks and powerful interests that had the capability to control the resources and future of Russia. Russia, unlike their former colleges in eastern Europe wanted a free market opportunity but under the control of Russia as an independent country. Sadly, most of eastern Europe exchanged an authoritarian government in Moscow for one in Brussels and Washington. This decision may prove to be their worst decision for their future.

While Russia attempted to become integrated into western economies and politics it became clear that it would never happen without giving up control of its own destiny. When western interests became aware that Russia did not want to submit to giving up control of its future to others, the pressure began, first the narrative of evil Russia, interfering in U.S. elections, and every other opportunity to vilify Russia. The neo-con cold warriors believed they could divide up Russia and exploit its resources. At the same time the Marxist revolutionaries viewed Russia as a traitor to the world communist cause. Russia had no allies in the west, just an unholy alliance that wanted its destruction.

So, here we are, time is running out, will the unholy alliance of Neo-con fascists and Marxist revolutionaries decide that it is time give it up, or do they just need to send long range missiles, provide western air cover for Ukraine or even tactical Nuclear weapons. If anyone thinks that escalation and keeping this up for as long as it takes is a winning policy, we will all be destroyed by their delusion.

Auto worker strike, Trouble for U.S. auto business.

 INFLATION, STRIKES AND ERA OF NON-COMPETITIVENESS

SHORT TERM GAINS, LONG TERM DECLINE IN U.S. AUTOS

This week we saw the beginning of the U.S. auto workers strike, they are demanding 40% pay raises and a 4 day work week. If they really get their desires, they may end with a 3 day work week as the global competition will gladly take the opportunity to take global market share.

In 2022 China produced 27 million units, U.S. 10 million units..Japan 7.8 million units, India 5.4 million, S. Korea 3.7 million. Total global production 85 million units.

Light vehicles domestic sales 2022.

China            23.5 million

U.S.              13.7 million

Japan            14.2 million 

India               3.8 million

Germany        2.6 million

In 1950 the U.S. produced 80% of the worlds vehicles, today around 12%. This number is going to be further challenged as other countries expand their car production.

Chna is of course the biggest producer of Autos now, and growing quickly, domestic sales are exploding and they and they now sell 60 % of the electric vehicles. They have positioned themselves to dominate the electric car batteries and components.

At present, many of the components of U.S. auto production are foreign made, at one time all the components, from switches, electronics, machined parts, tires and upholstery were produced domestically. It was often stated that as the auto industry goes so does the U.S. economy. It could be now estimated that only 25% of auto components are domestically made.

So in fact U.S. cars are today mostly assembled in the U.S. but they are largely produced elsewhere. 

As manufacturers are squeezed by government mandates, government regulations and union demands  they attempt to adjust operations to sustain competitiveness. 

We can expect more of the production of components to be outsourced to wherever it can be produced, without the expense of plant, equipment, inventory and all the hoops to jump though to make this happen. This is economic reality that will not be changed.

The U.S. is now just a small part of a huge global auto business and the growth is mostly in other parts of the world.

The auto worker demands are just the first of what is likely going to be a tend, especially in an election year. The Democrat administration owes its constituents a little payback. We can expect to see the teachers union demand to be compensated for their support and to offset the inflation of this administration. 

This whole affair may end with hyper-inflation and then a further decline in the U.S. economy.

Oil prices going up = another round of inflation.

 CRUDE OIL SHORTAGES BEGINNING NOW

THE PRICE OF EVERYTHING WILL INCREASE

OPEC+ has announced another round of production cuts that are expected to take effect by October 1, this will result in $100 a barrel oil price, which will translate into higher prices for everything. Everything is affected by the price of energy, of course, gas, heating oil and all energy is the first, but it also raises the cost of transportation for everything we use. Food production is very energy dependent, diesel fuel for equipment and fertilizer manufactured from oil products will trigger another round of increases in the cost of production and transportation of food.

Eventually it may also affect the price of electricity production, which is still produced by lots of fossil fuel.  

The only way to offset these increases is for an increase in  production of gas and oil by domestic producers, it is very unlikely that will happen. 

The strategic oil reserve is now reported to be at the lowest level since the 1980's, it has been systematically depleted to keep oil prices down but it soon will not be realistic to deplete it further.

High energy prices in Europe have already seen an increase in coal production and an increasing dependence on the use of firewood. We can expect these trends will be the cause of political and environmental anxiety.

While many will blame OPEC, their reasoning is that the buying power of the dollar, still the major payment option for oil sales is declining, due to fiscal policy in the U.S. The high deficit spending practices have a direct impact on this declining value.

There is a trend to trade oil in other currencies, but that will not help the cost of energy in the U.S. as the buying power of the dollar declines the cost of everything denominated in dollars will rise.

The only long range solution is increased domestic production, coupled with a more responsible fiscal policy by the federal government, both seem to be a low priority at this time.

Global conflict expands and deepens.

 MULTI-POLAR WORLD MAY NOW BE IRREVERSIBLE

CAN IT BE SUSTAINED WITHOUT VIOLENT CONFLICT

We continue to watch as the west has now reversed course from only threats and intimidation to more carrots to expand and keep its allies. We also see Russia and China solidifying cooperation from anyone who is willing and has become ostracized by the west. From North Korea, to likely be used as burr under the saddle of Japan and South Korea, to Venezuela who can expand into another ally in South America.

While many in Europe and even Russia had hoped that the day would come when there would again be peace and cooperation in that part of the world it is becoming clear that time is running out for any possible rapprochement. It seems it is becoming a irreconcilable divorce for the future. While Russia has been damaged by sanctions and war, it is managing and even slightly prosporing, mostly because much of the world is dependent on its food and energy and other materials. Russia has the food and energy for survival, while much of the west either refuses to use its own resources or no longer has that ability. In the long run Russia will do better than Europe in sustainability. 

Decisions have been made to cut oil production by Russia and Saudi Arabia, the biggest producers. The United States strategic oil reserve has now been depleted to dangerous levels, will this administration totally use it up to sustain prices in the election season? It appears higher oil prices are inevitable.

China meanwhile is retaliating to every attempt at sanctioning the sale of products sold to China. Sanctioning computer chips has been followed by China now producing more of their own and underselling the global market. It has also shifted buying grain from the U.S. to allies in South America. It has cancelled purchases from Germany and Japan and replaced these products by domestic production or other allies. It is now the biggest producer of cars and trucks and has a huge market besides the west to sell to and will make the West uncompetitive. It is now producing its own domestic airliners that will likely replace Air-bus and Boeing in the rest of the world. It has made alliances that will insure its supplies of materials and energy.

It appears that the global economy is becoming irreversibly fractured and it would take a team of serious diplomats and statesmen to heal this divide. Sadly it seems to be a rare commodity in Western nations, who are frozen in their global game plan and seem to be willing to go down with the ship, rather change course.

One must wonder how long this ally shopping and economic chess game will remain non-violent. Can these opposing blocks survive in a world jockeying for resources and attempting to sustain their economies and social stability. Without cooperation, there will eventually be winners and losers, the losers may believe they can only survive by the destruction of the other.

Biden impeachment inquiry begins.

 EVIDENCE FAR OUTWEIGHS ANY IN PREVIOUS IMPEACHMENTS

LOTS OF CORRUPTION EVIDENT, JUST NEED ACCESS 

The House of Representatives have finally opened an impeachment inquiry into the financial dealing of Joe Biden and Hunter Biden. There is more evidence of corruption and a true indication of a real impeachable offence in many areas.

To just take one, the video were Joe Biden huffs and puffs and brags about withholding $1 billion dollars in aid to Ukraine unless they fire the prosecutor investigating Hunter Biden and Burisma co., the company that was paying Hunter over $80,000 a month. This is a more serious indication than anything that they used to impeach Donald Trump. 

Then there is the fact that Hunter Biden flies to China with Joe and then acts as an agent, unregistered of course, of China to buy $1 billion of strategic metal assets in Africa for China.

Money from a Moscow mayor's wife.

There is lots to inquire about and so far the details of bank records and other attempts to discover where all this money ended up have been thwarted by the Biden administration and its corrupt justice department. Obstruction of justice all over the place.

It can be expected that is inquiry will likely go nowhere, as this administration, likely the most corrupt in U.S. history has no lack of boldness to just not cooperate and not provide any subpoenaed documents. What is anyone going to do about it?

The fact is, the United States is no longer a country with laws that are enforced on the elite rulers. It is no better than a corrupt third world oligarchy. In fact, it may now be worse, since it has the corrupt media who either distorts the truth or just refuses to report on any subjects if finds undesirable to the ruling elite. 

Just watch and see just how much coverage and credibility this media will give this impeachment inquiry. 

Debt, real estate bubble, Deja vu.

 DEBT RECORDS BEING SET EVERYWHERE

WILL REAL-ESTATE BUBBLE BE NEXT

While the narrative seems to be all is well with the economy, alarming statistics are being reported almost daily.

Household debt has now set an all-time record of $17.1. Trillion.

Credit Card debt is now a record  $1.2 Trillion with interest of 25%

Savings rate has declined to 3.5% and savings, have declined by over $1 billion per month since January, 2023.

Delinquencies on auto loans and consumer debt is increasing steadily.

Federal Reserve reports that banks are tightening lending standards as they foresee trouble ahead.

Debt to income ratio on mortgages has reached all time high of 40%, surpassing previous high in 2008 of 39 %.

28% of home sales are being purchased by Real estate investors. Average mortgage payments are over $1600 and in Pa. $1505. 

Average rent in Allentown area is now $1546 for 850 sq ft. and many over $2000.00.

Average household income in Pa. is $66,000.

Corporate profits are now down an average of 6%. 

It appears that many have continued to maintain their lifestyle by increasing credit card debt and depleting their savings. It is forecast that this practice is now going to come to an end within months.

The trigger for the 2008 crash was the default of real-estate debt held by mortgage securities.

Today we now see Real-estate investment groups who have been purchasing, renting and reselling real-estate financed by investors. While returns are increasing everyone is happy, but when returns stagnate and then fall, investors, unlike home owners, will soon want to exit these investments. When investors want to liquidate, it will require the group to sell, decreasing real-estate values and setting in motion a fast decline and crash and also default on mortgages. The rest is easily calculated by history. 

This situation then coupled with the effects of sanctions and trade retaliation may very easily set up a horrendous situation, especially for individuals and countries with large debts.

Federal spending 23.7% of gross domestic product.

 UNSUSTAINABLE DEFICITS AND DEBT 

BUDGET NOW ON UNCONTROLLED TRACK TO DISASTER

Federal Spending for 2023 is now estimated at $6.2 Trillion, this is 23.7% of all goods and services produced by the country.  Income is estimated at $4.81 Trillion or 18.3% of GDP. The federal debt is now $32.94 trillion or 133% of GDP. Total debt of everyone in the U.S. private and public is now 764% of GDP. Some countries in western Europe have even higher percentages of total debt and Japan is now at 1300%. This is private and public debt.

It seems that debt is no longer talked about, maybe hoping that if ignored it will not be relevant, but it will soon become unsustainable. Debt service of interest on the debt is now 7 % of the federal budget. If interest rates remain high that number will explode, as old debt was often paying only 1%, it will soon be replaced by more expensive debt, growing to the point that just servicing the federal debt could rise to 25% of the budget.

While most people have believed that federal debt is irrelevant to their lives, they are mistaken. This debt translates into inflation in the price everything you buy, especially in necessities like energy and food. It needs to be understood that deficits reduce the buying power of the dollar and while we say prices are rising, in effect, the value of this money is being devalued. It is also reducing the buying power of your savings, 401K and any investments denominated in U.S. currency. 

This is far better understood by foreign countries who are in the process of trying to replace dollar transactions by trading in currencies that can be a better store of value. This is difficult as all fiat or non backed currencies are in reality a risky store of value. The hope is that a method of commerce can be found that is backed by gold.

It appears that Federal deficits and debt will continue to increase at an alarming rate, as much of the budget is locked in with social spending and interest payments, that are not easily cut. Military spending and money transfers to allies are also increasing. 

While many hope to decrease deficits by increased taxes, this will be a fools path, as it will transfer more of the wealth of the nation to the federal purse, that seems to have no restraint and no incentive to be frugal. With the federal share of the Gross domestic product at near 25%, giving them more will translate into more inefficiency and a declining revenue stream.

It seems this path will not be broken by any election results. The bureaucracy will continue to demand more spending and the entrenched government workers more pay to offset inflation. We can expect strikes and a general increase in the cost of everything for the foreseeable future. This may soon become an era of hyperinflation and the blame placed by government officials on everyone but themselves.

Inevitably all this will make the U.S. less competitive in world markets and less wealthy as a nation.

Biden foreign policy disaster.

GLOBALIZATION, U.S. INFLUENCE DECLINES

EUROPE, LAST MEN STANDING WITH U.S.

While Joe Biden likes to boast about the unity of NATO in the Ukraine conflict, it seems to be the only arena standing with the U.S. foreign policy. While that unity is now intact, how long can it endure with severe economic problems forecast for western Europe. 

So far there has been some cooperation in the pacific area, but China is the basis for much of the economic performance of all the pacific rim countries. We now see economic retaliation coming from China, choosing to deal with partners not aligned with the United States. China is focusing its economic partnership with countries, BRICS members for one, that are interested in doing business without political or social engineering strings attached. This is a departure from the trend of global trade and global markets. These moves will have serious consequences for all involved. While it may have negative consequences in the short run for China, it may be a more positive long range plan.

The major countries of the Middle East have, by their actions, declared that they are no longer in lock step with the agenda coming out of Washington. They are firm in their commitment to continue to do business with China and Russia, while at the same time desiring to do business with Washington and the west but as independent sovereign nations. Attempts to force compliance economically or by declining to sell desired military equipment will only lead to more trade with Russia and China.  

We see similar trends coming out of Africa were there is a desire to end control from European former colonists. It will also have some economic impact on western European countries. 

The same tend is escalating in South America were major countries are shunning allegiance to any power and want to be able to trade with whoever is the most advantageous to their economic health.

While 30 years of interventionist U.S. foreign policy has been at the root of these developments, it has all culminated in the policies of the Biden administration. The refusal to address the legitimate security concerns of Russia, the refusal to support the negotiated Ukraine settlement in the spring of 2022 have all influenced the world, that has been watching.

The doubling down on threats and intimidation to those countries that wish to stay neutral have forced countries away.  The attempt to continue to undermine countries like Hungary, Georgia, India and Turkey have not forced submission but avoidance.

Biden has refused to have conversations with the leadership of Russia for near 2 years. He has alienated the leaders of China, that now refuse to have any conversations or meetings with him. He alienated the leadership of Saudi Arabia even before he took office, with his insults and threats. It is the first time that the G20 meeting will not be attended by the leaders of China and Russia.  This situation is because this meeting is going to be not be about economic cooperation but political division. India, who is hosting this meeting, is perplexed because they hoped that the meeting could be used to build bridges not more division.

As the world slides into more division, the United States, which is also severely divided, has little moral authority to influence anyone. With a fiscal policy that is headed for ruin, with social polices far out of accepted global norms, with a decline into political persecution and  prosecution, attempts at censorship and a questionable election system, the United States needs to get its own house in order, before it can ever be a world leader.

Leadership come not form threats and intimidation, but persuasion, if your house is in chaos, how can the United States persuade anyone.

New alliances, escalation, prelude to WAR.

 SIMILAR TO WW1 ALLIANCES, EXCEPT NOW NUCLEAR

NO SIGNS OF DE-ESCALATION

Of course we have all witnessed the expansion of the NATO alliance from 12 members during the cold war to now 30, an alliance that some believe had lost its purpose. For 70 years it was an alliance with little risk. Then after the break-up of the Soviet Union we saw this alliance used for intervention in the Middle East, North Africa and anywhere that its members could be enticed to support U.S. intervention. Now the era of little risk is over and with the attempt to expand NATO into Ukraine and Georgia the world is becoming a very dangerous place.

Not only has NATO expanded to include most of Europe with Russia the supposed enemy, it is now expanding to include Asia with China the designated enemy. While so far, Europeans are reluctant to join into an alliances that makes China their enemy, such alliances are proceeding at a very fast rate.

We have seen the U.S. enlisting Japan, Australia, South Korea and the Phillipines to sign onto a military alliance in an attempt to contain China. We have seen China now using economic retaliation against Japan and some nations in western Europe notably Germany. We  now see North Korea enabled with the addition of ICBM missiles that can reach every nation on earth. Now that overt threats against China and Russia have become the everyday narrative, they are preparing for total war as never before.

While these nations are preparing for war, much of the rest of world is now caught in the dilemma of choosing sides. Most would simply just like to go about the business of being independent non militarized counties. They would rather be focused on economic progress and hoping to improve the lives of their citizens. They are constantly under pressure to choose sides or be the subject of economic and even violent unrest in their country. This situation is not unlike the prelude to WW1 but much more comprehensive and dangerous. It truly does include the whole world and it is compounded by the ability of the leading opponents to destroy the world as we know it.

The escalation goes on, it is a daily narrative. There seems to be no attempt at stopping this madness. Any attempt to deescalate is either a sign of weakness or traitorous. Much of it has to do with hubris and a desire to rule the world. Only an intervention by some of the allies, and serious political leaders at home to say enough, will offer any hope of ending this rush to disaster.

Sales campaign for new Covid vaccine begins.

 COVID SHOTS WILL BE AN ANNUAL RITUAL

STEADY INCOME FOR PHARMA

It is being reported that the new covid variant is showing up in the United States. It is also being speculated that previous shots and natural immunity will not protect you from this new variant. A new upgraded vaccine is to be available by the middle of September. This new vaccine is specially formulated to protect from the new variant.

Amazing how they are now able to have a new vaccine even before the new variant appears, much like the annual flu shot. Of course, no one will be able to predict how effective this new vaccine may be. 

Many people have had up to 6 previous shots, but more is always better when it comes to covid vaccines. I suppose a booster will also be made available as soon as sales of the new vaccine start to slide. Maybe even a second booster. You can never be too safe in protecting your self and the community.

Usually a marketing campaign can cost billions of dollars, but today it is a free exercise in public safety. We will hear of the celebrities having the new variant, we will see politicians getting shots and also the shaming of those who just ignorantly believe they have had enough shots.

Then there is also the beginning of election season, maybe we will see counters of infections and deaths, government mandates and even shut downs. After all such distractions seemed very effective last time. But of course that was with a different president who didn't believe in science as much as the current president. 

So, it appears it is the season for new shots, time to buy pharma stock and watch in wonder as we hopefully will be saved by government and pharma collaboration.

U.S. goal in Ukraine made clear: Dead Russians.

 U.S. SENATORS REVEAL WHY WE NEED TO KEEP FUNDING WAR

FORGET EUROPE, FORGET U.S. MONEY, FORGET UKRAINE LIVES

As the debate heats up about how much more money is to be spent on the Ukraine war it is being revealed what is the real goal of this war. Senators, Linsey Graham, Mitt Romney, both republicans and Richard Blumenthal, a democrat have all remarked almost verbatim that dead Russians is the goal. It seems this in now the new talking point or narrative. No longer about democracy, which has become obvious, retaking Ukrainian provinces, which is now apparent. It is about damaging Russia, killing as many Russians as possible. All three have made it clear, that they feel this is the best money the U.S. has spent and that we are getting our money's worth, without the loss of U.S. lives.

This cynical narrative is a disgusting remark and shows just how out of touch with any objective view of morality or just cause our leaders thinking has become.

There is no consideration for the lives of Ukrainian young men who are being told they are winning, that they are heroes and that they will defeat Russia as long as they keep fighting. It is all a horrendous lie to perpetuate some kind of long range plan by U.S. politicians to degrade Russia and to not be embarrassed by their failed strategy.

There is no empathy for our allies in Europe who are seeing their quality of life being degraded, by sky-rocketing energy costs and a loss of their manufacturing competitiveness.

It is clear that this war is number 1 in priority, not the well being of any U.S. citizens or the safety and security of this country. With a $32 Trillion debt and growing every month, U.S. money is prioritized in death and destruction, a continuation of our foreign policy for the last 30 years.

There is no understanding or concern of how the standing of the United States is being diminished in the minds of citizens in other parts of the world as they see and hear this disgusting narrative.  They can only assume that their country and their young men could be next.

The warmongers in Washington are now so obsessed with this Ukraine war that they will sacrifice everything, and that may inevitably be the reality, to punish Russia for not submitting to their vision of ruling the world and demanding that the planet must submit to their view of social, political and economic supremacy.

This delusional and immoral vision is nothing new in human history, it has always ended badly, this time will not be an exception.