Russian Ukraine strategy and nuclear threat.

 RUSSIA UNLIKELY TO NEED NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN UKRAINE

IF CONFLICT GOES NUCLEAR. UKRAINE WILL NOT BE THE TARGET

We continue to hear narratives that Russia could resort to tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Mostly the claim is that if Russia would be losing they would resort to nuclear weapons in desperation. Russia is in no need to use nuclear weapons to defeat Ukraine, even with the support of NATO.

The fact is that war is not with Ukraine, but with the United States. The reality is that the European NATO participants would never have engaged in this conflict if they had understood the consequences. The consequences that are now becoming reality for the European allies.

With U.S. planning, prompting, and faulty intelligence analysis they were able to persuade the NATO members that NATO expansion was a low risk endeavour and the Russia would either back down or be economically devastated by a conflict in Ukraine. They were sold a win, win bill of goods that has gone terribly bad, especially for the Ukrainians and the European NATO members. It is now becoming obvious that most would want out of this if they could. Sadly, there is now no way out with a positive political, economic or societal  result. 

If this conflict continues on its present course, Ukraine will not recover for generations. It will be a decades long economic burden for all involved. Russia is well aware of the present trend and understands that Europe will need to make a decision about its future very soon. Continuing on this path it is without a doubt going to lead to political and economic devastation. This is Russia's strategy, It is a long range attrition strategy for all those who are on the other side of this conflict. Realistically Russia is in the more secure position. It has energy and food, it is self sufficient, it can outlast Europe. 

I would expect that if given the opportunity, Europe would exit this tragedy quickly, but they are under the power in many way of the United States and the UK, who it seems is willing to continue this war rather admit failure or a rejection of the policy they have nurtured for so long. The lives of Ukrainians and the economic survival of Europe are just so much collateral damage in this struggle between the U.S. and Russia.

While many in the U.S. have refused to listen to the warnings from Moscow and have continued to minimize the dangers of an escalating conflict, the danger is not Nuclear weapons in Ukraine, but nuclear war between the U.S. and Russia. One danger is that the U.S. will pre-emtivly attack Moscow, to overthrow the government and use the excuse that intelligence revealed Russia was about to launch a nuclear war. 

Then the other danger is that Russia should perceive that this conflict is going to continue until there is nuclear confrontation and they would best be served if it was undertaken at their initiative. If they come to believe this is inevitable, then the initiator would have an advantage.

Any such war would be devastating for the U.S. and Russia, not to mention the rest of the world, but that is the real risk. We can expect that strategists on both sides have calculated how they may be able to survive, some may even like their odds. After all they liked their odds at the onset of this conflict and still seem to find it all acceptable.