Prolonged Ukraine conflict will doom Europe.

 CAN EUROPE, AS WE KNOW IT, SURVIVE A LONG UKRAINE CONFLICT?

CAN MODERN EUROPE SURVIVE ESTRANGED FROM RUSSIA?

At present it seems no one is asking the right questions about the conflict over NATO expansion and Ukraine. The bobble head leaders in both Western and Eastern Europe seem to just keep repeating the U.S. narrative that they will outlast Russia in this economic and military conflict. 

What exactly does outlasting Russia look like and what are the potential results? Russia is not going to be defeated in this conflict even it it requires all out nuclear war. Russia believes, and not without merit, that its very existence is dependent on stopping its encirclement with NATO expansion. Russia also believes that if it has to be permanently separated from economic ties to Europe it is worth the sacrifice. Is Europe realistic and aware of what estrangement from Russia will mean to its economic future?

At present, much of Europe, including Ukraine is still getting oil and gas form Russia, maybe not officially, but by round abouts of the sanctions. Russia could tomorrow just completely stop most of its energy from ending up in Europe. What option would this leave Europe, both economically and socially?

Since the dismantling of the former Soviet Union, Russia had been intent on integrating economically and even somewhat politically with Europe. It was a win, win, situation for both, as Russia had lots of energy, particularly natural gas and Europe had decided it was going to be the bridge fuel until more renewable energy could be developed. Long term reasonable energy contracts were the norm and it provided energy that allowed Europe to operate profitably in competitive world trade. It allowed the cutback in coal production and provided the fuel for a modern economy. That is now soon to be a thing of the past, permanently. Europe, realistically has no real plan B, unless they believe that if Russia is defeated they will have control and access to this energy.  If they believe that, then they are really playing Russian roulette with their future.

The root of this dispute is that as Russia transformed from a communist country, it decide it would be very serious about charting its own future, unlike the other former members of the Soviet Union. It understood the dangers of becoming dependent on western banks and powerful interests that had the capability to control the resources and future of Russia. Russia, unlike their former colleges in eastern Europe wanted a free market opportunity but under the control of Russia as an independent country. Sadly, most of eastern Europe exchanged an authoritarian government in Moscow for one in Brussels and Washington. This decision may prove to be their worst decision for their future.

While Russia attempted to become integrated into western economies and politics it became clear that it would never happen without giving up control of its own destiny. When western interests became aware that Russia did not want to submit to giving up control of its future to others, the pressure began, first the narrative of evil Russia, interfering in U.S. elections, and every other opportunity to vilify Russia. The neo-con cold warriors believed they could divide up Russia and exploit its resources. At the same time the Marxist revolutionaries viewed Russia as a traitor to the world communist cause. Russia had no allies in the west, just an unholy alliance that wanted its destruction.

So, here we are, time is running out, will the unholy alliance of Neo-con fascists and Marxist revolutionaries decide that it is time give it up, or do they just need to send long range missiles, provide western air cover for Ukraine or even tactical Nuclear weapons. If anyone thinks that escalation and keeping this up for as long as it takes is a winning policy, we will all be destroyed by their delusion.