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Monday, September 11, 2023

Federal spending 23.7% of gross domestic product.

 UNSUSTAINABLE DEFICITS AND DEBT 

BUDGET NOW ON UNCONTROLLED TRACK TO DISASTER



Federal Spending for 2023 is now estimated at $6.2 Trillion, this is 23.7% of all goods and services produced by the country.  Income is estimated at $4.81 Trillion or 18.3% of GDP. The federal debt is now $32.94 trillion or 133% of GDP. Total debt of everyone in the U.S. private and public is now 764% of GDP. Some countries in western Europe have even higher percentages of total debt and Japan is now at 1300%. This is private and public debt.

It seems that debt is no longer talked about, maybe hoping that if ignored it will not be relevant, but it will soon become unsustainable. Debt service of interest on the debt is now 7 % of the federal budget. If interest rates remain high that number will explode, as old debt was often paying only 1%, it will soon be replaced by more expensive debt, growing to the point that just servicing the federal debt could rise to 25% of the budget.

While most people have believed that federal debt is irrelevant to their lives, they are mistaken. This debt translates into inflation in the price everything you buy, especially in necessities like energy and food. It needs to be understood that deficits reduce the buying power of the dollar and while we say prices are rising, in effect, the value of this money is being devalued. It is also reducing the buying power of your savings, 401K and any investments denominated in U.S. currency. 

This is far better understood by foreign countries who are in the process of trying to replace dollar transactions by trading in currencies that can be a better store of value. This is difficult as all fiat or non backed currencies are in reality a risky store of value. The hope is that a method of commerce can be found that is backed by gold.

It appears that Federal deficits and debt will continue to increase at an alarming rate, as much of the budget is locked in with social spending and interest payments, that are not easily cut. Military spending and money transfers to allies are also increasing. 

While many hope to decrease deficits by increased taxes, this will be a fools path, as it will transfer more of the wealth of the nation to the federal purse, that seems to have no restraint and no incentive to be frugal. With the federal share of the Gross domestic product at near 25%, giving them more will translate into more inefficiency and a declining revenue stream.

It seems this path will not be broken by any election results. The bureaucracy will continue to demand more spending and the entrenched government workers more pay to offset inflation. We can expect strikes and a general increase in the cost of everything for the foreseeable future. This may soon become an era of hyperinflation and the blame placed by government officials on everyone but themselves.

Inevitably all this will make the U.S. less competitive in world markets and less wealthy as a nation.




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