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Thursday, September 21, 2023

Is Poland the first to say enough of Ukraine conflict?

 POLAND ENDS MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO UKRAINE

SENDS UKRAINE A BILL FOR $23 BILLION




It appears that Poland has decided it is time for it to end support for the Ukraine conflict. Several disputes have festered for some time, one is the large number of refuges in the country, which could grow larger from an escalated conflict. Another is the surplus grain coming from Ukraine that has the Polish farmers very unhappy. Then of course, there are upcoming elections which begin on October 15. The mood of the electorate is becoming less supportive of this conflict.

Then of course there is the pending lawsuit by Ukraine over the grain embargo by Poland. Ukraine has threatened to sue Poland it if it does not allow Ukraine grain into the country. This act of arrogance and hubris seems to be the last straw for Poland. Maybe Ukraine believes that Biden can intervene and force Poland to submit, but it will not go well with the Polish farmers and electorate.

Ukraine is very dependent on Poland for the ability to be used as a conduit for arms shipments into Ukraine. Its lack of diplomacy and never ending demands may spell the demise of Ukraine. Poland has been very supportive, but it has limits to what is possible and remain a unified government. Either way, without Poland, Ukraine will be in a more precarious position.

It is unlikely that Poland will reverse its position on military assistance, it is also unlikely that Ukraine will ever pay any bill to supportive countries. Many counties now understand that they cannot keep up this support indefinitely. 

Several countries at the UN meeting have advised Zelensky it is time for negotiations to end this conflict. While Zelensky is now in Washington with his usual list of demand, he has not been welcomed to address congress and it appears the handwriting is on the wall. Support is weakening in many places and many have come to realize this is all a futile endeavor. 





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