Syria; A tangled web of conflicting self interest.

 EUPHORIA ON ASSAD'S DEPARTURE MAY END IN DESPERATION

IS AL QAEDA BETTER THAN ASSAD?

In a short, dramatic turn of events, the Assad regime in Syria has been overthrown. The desire of the west that began in 2011 has finally been realized, we will have to wait and see if this is a positive development or just the beginning of more chaos and instability in the region. 

It seems that the former ISIS group that was preserved by the U.S. and its allies in the Idlib province is now the new rulers of Syria. At the end of the ISIS conflict Russia, Turkey and Syria wanted to finish off the remaining members of the group, most of the leadership, who had holed up in Idlib in northern Syria. The U.S. and its western allies protested vigorously that such a move would result in too many civilian casualties. After near a million and counting dead in the régime change wars, one must wonder how many is too many? 

This remnant and two other affiliates are what is now the ruling body in Syria. Take note that the ISIS members who attacked from the north, were the most effective and we can expect they will demand the majority of the power. It is interesting that the western media is labeling these two other groups as moderate jihadists, an oxymoron, or the opposition.

It appears that the Syrian military was ordered to stand down and that Assad was in communication with the leaders of these groups. It is also reported that the new leaders have communicated that they will not attack Russian assets.

It seems that Turkey, who had agreed with Russia and Iran to attempt to stabilize Syria, became a player in funneling U.S. equipment to these Islamist Jihadists and that Israel also approved of this attempt, they all came together to support this overthrow.  While the goal of overthrowing Assad has long been an objective of the U.S. and Israel, the U.S. financially supported the so called opposition in the Syrian war, many who were Jihadists and the remnants eventually morphed into ISIS. The same remnants that ended up in Idlib with the support of the U.S.. Many suspected that they were preserved to fight again in the future, the future that is now. Well, maybe the end justifies the means.

One must wonder why Turkey would assist in overthrowing Assad when they are both vocal opponents of Israel. We can expect the Erdogan sees an opportunity that may become evident very soon. He may view taking control of part of Syria as a step to his dream of a resurrection of the Ottoman Empire.

Israel believes that overthrowing Assad will cut off support from Iran that moves through Syria into Lebanon, but the concern voiced by some in the military in Israel is that Assad was a predictable and stabilizing force in Syria and the new rulers are an unknown. Do the new rulers love Israel more than Assad? Can they be expected to accept Israel's right to exist?

The U.S. may have believed that a move against Assad would force Russia to be distracted from Ukraine and send troops and supplies to Syria. It would also look like a political loss for Russia. The same applies to Iran. The reality is that both Russia and Iran seem to have not come to Assad's rescue and are in the process of pulling out of the country. It appears that they are just protecting their people and assets until they can safely exit.

The present masters in Washington may also hope that a new ISIS in Syria will be distraction to Trump that will hobble his attempts at domestic reform. I suspect they will be wrong and that Trump may finally pull U.S. troops from Syria and maybe even Iraq and let Turkey, Iran, Israel and regional powers deal with this mess.

Israel is moving into parts of Syria to establish a buffer from the new rulers. It may become another extension of Israel.

Will the new rulers now want access to the oil that is controlled and being sold by the U.S., that is in effect the property of Syria?

If these new rulers are sophisticated enough, they may be able to actually get funding from the U.S. congress, all they have to do is voice their support for elections and democracy and find a charismatic leader to lobby in the U.S.

There are also rumblings that the Kurds now see another opportunity to attempt to have their independence from Turkey. Will they gain support from Iran and others in the Arab community to punish Turkey for their double dealing?

While these realities are just the few that are going to be the byproduct of this event, we can expect no good result in the long run. It will most likely end like all regime change operations, death, destruction and chaos. Maybe some will rejoice because this is really the ultimate goal.