Will tariffs bring back manufacturing to the U.S.?

 BRINGING BACK MANUFACTURING, IF POSSIBLE, WILL TAKE DECADES

TRADE WAR WILL CAUSE ECONOMIC DECLINE

We hear that raising tariffs on imports will be an incentive to bring back manufacturing jobs to the U.S.. While it may have some effect on some select industries, it will take a far more comprehensive and unified approach to be effective. I suspect that U.S. is not ready to make the necessary changes.

To bring industry back it will take drastic and wide-ranging reforms of regulations. Everything from environmental, taxing and zoning regulations on the federal, state and local level. 

Industries do not leave or locate in foreign countries just for large profits, but also to be profitable and competitive and insure their very existence.

If someone wants to start a new business in the U.S. they need a competitive product, then purchase properly zoned land and jump thousand of hoops to construct the plant, then purchase the equipment, hire qualified employees, provide social benefits and healthcare and presto their product becomes obsolete or uncompetitive and they risk losing all of their investment. A good example is the much touted Taiwan semiconductor plant in Arizona, the plant is 2 years behind schedule, the costs have ballooned and they cannot find employees willing to work the night shifts and they have publicly voiced regret at making the decision.

The other option is they can seek having it made somewhere else, no plant, no equipment, no employes, no benefits, no government in their pocket all along the process. Taxes only on their profit, no property taxes, no union problems and if their product becomes obsolete, they still have resources to improvise or adjust to a new product. It is a no brainer and a situation that will not be easily be corrected to entice anyone to build plant and manufacturing in the US.. 

Tariffs on Chinese goods will result in what is actually happening, a good example is that China has in the last few days restricted the export of Antimony, a product that is essential to a myriad number of products and China dominates the mining and processing of this metal. All Antimony mines and processing has been closed in the U.S. due to environmental regulations, as is the case with most rare earth minerals. All dominated by China for much of the world's supply. Not a conspiracy by China, but just filing a need that others did not want to fill.

The U.S. has not built a new oil refining facility in decades and in fact has been closing these facilities, making the U.S. dependent on refined products from other countries, many of which we have diplomatic disagreement.

The reality is that the US. cannot force others to do out bidding by threats and sanctions, it will take real diplomacy and a commitment to co-existence, as we are dependent on the rest of the world and if we should strive to become self reliant it will take decades, not just a new administration.