Israel debates attacking Iran.

 MOSSAD SAYS DO IT NOW, IDF NOT SO SURE

WILL US POLITICS PLAY IN THE TIMING

Its no secret that Israel has been talking about a major attack on Iran for some time. Some in the government along with their allies in the US have been itching to attack Iran for years. Several US presidents have nixed the idea, but it seems its on the agenda to be accomplished before the end of the Biden administration.

Such an attack will not be undertaken without the US cooperation, as it could turn out to be a bad gamble if Israel went it alone, in fact it may be bad gamble no matter what. Iran is not the Iran of 1980 and it has formidable air defenses and also lots of offensive capability that can reach Israel. It could possibly devastate Israel even without nuclear weapons.

Usually the premise is that Iran needs to be attacked before they can acquire nuclear weapons. This is an old narrative, that if thought about, is weak, Iran is a well educated and modern nation, if they wanted nuclear weapons they could have had them long ago. There is a debate in Iran between the more religious elements that do not want them and others who feel it is the only hope for their survival.

The other argument is that they are the power behind all the resistance to Israel. It is true that they have supported Hezbollah, but Hamas not so much. It is unlikely that any attack will dissolve Iran as a nation and there are lots of places to take up the resistance to Israel.

Then there are the risks of an attack, so far, Iran has been restrained in its counter attacks on Israel, they have made it clear that they do not want all out regional war. In Israel's last attempt to attack Iran, it is reported that many of their fighters turned back due to electronic countermeasures and Iran's air defenses were very effective.

The Mossad is counseling to attack Iran now while they are perceived to be weak after a setback in Syria, but the IDF believes it can not guarantee success in an attack or the ability to defend against an all out counter attack.

We can expect that Netanyahu will go for it, but may time such an attack to put the next US president in the hot seat on his first day in office.