NO CEASEFIRE, NO FROZEN CONFLICT
ONLY SERIOUS LASTING PEACE PLAN ACCEPTABLE
Yesterday it was announced that Ukraine has agreed to a 30 day ceasefire. The EU members quickly agreed that they would support such a ceasefire. Russia will not agree to any ceasefire or other plan, except a comprehensive long term permanent peace plan. Without a doubt the the UK, France and Ukraine would use any such ceasefire to resupply and reorganize their troops for further military action. Ukraine is already talking about the hope of a long term insurgency, even after a peace plan is accepted.
We can assume the narrative will be that Russia rejected a ceasefire and that they hope to create division in the Russian homeland. Russia had poor experiences with Minsk 1 and Minsk 2 agreements that both Angela Merkle of Germany and the president of France admitted were only agreed to to give Ukraine time to prepare for war. No one should doubt that this is just such a ploy, not to end the war, but to keep it going.
It is no coincidence that this agreement coincides with Russia taking over control of Sudzha and in only days away from evicting Ukraine from Russian territory. At the same time Russia has been repelling several counterattacks in the Donbass region and it is only a matter of time until Ukraine will no longer be able to organize serious resistance. It is likely past time for ceasefires and temporary peace plans.
Until the UK, France and Ukraine realize that further resistance is useless and that they will be ruling over a ever smaller Ukraine, no serious peace plan will be possible. Peace will only be possible when all parties truly desire a real lasting peace and it is obvious they are not there yet.
Ray, I consider myself uninformed on the war, but was hoping that Trump knew more about it than he apparently does about the economy and tariffs.
ReplyDeleteMike,I can only assume that Trump believes any communication is a step in the right direction. He is communicating with Russia and with Ukraine to end the war and hopefully, when the time is mature, it will have been productive.
DeleteRussia has very little trust of the west, Trump sort of has a clean slate, that makes negotiations possible. Everyone should hope for a long term end to this conflict.