U.S WILL LIKELY END SUPPORT
EU NARRATIVE EXPECTED TO GO SILENT
It seems the efforts to come to a negotiated settlement have now come to an end. Ukraine has remained steadfast in its unwillingness to concede that it has lost part of its country. It may soon realize it will be losing more of its country in the months ahead.
The hard support of the UK and some NATO members can now be expected to focus on other problems in western Europe and they are many. We can expect some lip service to their undying support for Ukraine but it will be another matter to come up with a Trillion Euros to bolster NATO and to continue to finance the Ukraine war.
It seems that Russia has won the Ukraine military conflict and is also winning at the diplomatic table. Zelensky has squandered much of the good will for his country by appearing uncompromising and also unappreciative. It is understandable that he bought in to the narrative of U.S. politicians and NATO members to embark on this Ukraine project. He rightly should have some resentment and alienation after a million Ukrainian deaths, a loss of 20% of the country and no end in sight. He is now caught between the right wing zealots who will quickly dispatch of him if he should compromise and the other negative alternative. It is lose, lose for Zelensky and Ukraine.
The best alternative is for Zelensky to move on and leave as a hero of his country, and let someone else deal diplomatically with Russia. A new approach that would appeal to the fact that they are historically the same people and it is time to end this affair in the best interest of both countries. There is no upside to continuing this conflict.
Russia is exerting continuous pressure all along the eastern front and moving methodically west. If the Russians perceive that NATO is not going to enter this conflict militarily they may soon conclude that it is time to end this by concentrating its forces and upping the intensity of the conflict. especially toward Odessa and Kharkiv.
There is no way that Russia intends to occupy Ukraine in the west, but do consider Odessa and Kharkiv as Russian cites. If no movement on a negotiated settlement, this is the likely outcome.
Trump now states that he got Putin to compromise by not taking ALL of Ukraine. This is the same Trump who said that if he was president instead of Biden, Russia would have never attacked. This is the same Trump who said that he would end the war on day one.
ReplyDeleteAs a conservative, I'm hoping that enough Republicans cut bait with Trump to keep a conservative movement viable, because the Trump and MAGA cult already lost its credibility and electability.
I do believe that Trump would not have pushed NATO expansion and avoided a conflict in Ukraine, but you are correct there is no easy way out of Ukraine for Trump or anyone else. It looks like it will end when Ukraine is ready to surrender. even if it takes another year.
ReplyDelete