Trump reveals, it is about OUR oil.

 TRANSPARENCY SHOULD TRIGGER INTERESTING DEBATE

SHUDDERS ON WALL ST. AND WASHINGTON

You got to give it to Trump he really does say what he is thinking. Yesterday he said that that Venezuela took our oil and our lands and now they must give them back.  I suspect 90 % of global countries that have a history of being on the wrong end of colonialism sat up straight at that one. I suspect that the neocolonialists in the UK, France and on Wall street are aghast at Trumps honest remark. Now we have to see what members of congress want to say about this, do any of them have any guts or will we hear a deafening silence. They may be in one of those lose, lose situations, you have got to love it.

We assume Trump is referring to the oil rights that were nationalized by Venezuela 20 year ago. Suits were filed and awards were won by oil companies and others, some received some money, Conoco Phillips was paid $2 Billion in 2024. Many of the awards were not paid. 

Resource extraction of oil and minerals is a very expensive proposition, often taking a decade to produce a return. It is expected that long term contracts are a necessity, a contract is often advantageous for both the companies and the countries with the resources. I have no idea about these contracts, but those companies have a right to be compensated for their loss. Contracts for extraction are not a perpetual claim on the resources. We expect they have an expiration and then a new contract can be negotiated.

I expect that if Venezuela had access to markets, they could easily pay off the awards that they owe. It does seem that some would rather claim ownership of the resources rather than pay for them at market price.

Many of the disputes we see today starting with Iran and the overthrow of their elected government in 1953, Iraq's oil fields stripped and given to the British created Kuwait. The Libyan regime change operation were all about western countries lust for control of their oil. Russia's resources are looked at with envy by western countries. The reality is they would all gladly sell them as much oil as they want, but that is unacceptable, as they would grow prosperous, and that is never acceptable.

Trump's words yesterday will be echoed around the world, probably already has. It will raise the issue of colonialism in much of the world. If we remember in the last year we witnessed Ukraine selling the UK 100 year leases for their resources and control of their ports and infrastructure, colonialism pure and simple. No wonder the UK and France and others are so set on Ukraine prevailing, they will be able to intimidate Ukraine more easily than Russia.

John Bolton fretted that Trump ruined the hope of acquiring Greenland with his public comments. Has he now lite a bright light on the colonialism still being attempted around the world. He must really be stupid or?

There is no reason a negotiation can't be made for Venezuela to pay off the awards they owe. Of course, they will need to sell things to come up with the money, sounds like a reasonable solution to me.

Trump kicks off 2026 campaign.

 NO ANNOUNCMENT ON VENEZUELA

GET READY FOR DUELING NARRTIVES

Last night Trump kicked off his first national address for the 2026 campaign. We can now expect an avalanche of rebuttals of Trump's claims. We will have wait to see if his predictions will materialize. 

Having hardly recovered from the 2024 campaign, we can soon expect the adds, mailers, speeches and interviews in an attempt to sway voters. I expect that it will revert back to the former strategies, all about personalities  and personal attacks. Trump gives the opposition lots of ammunition to attack him personally. One must wonder if Trump believes that if he can bait his opposition into making him the main subject of their campaign, they will most likely lose again. 

It seems the Democrats do not have much in the way of personalities or polices to challenge the Trump status quo. There is still no real leadership to excite voters, no Bill Clinton, no Barack Obama and if they had a viable candidate like Joe Manchin, he could not win a Democrat primary.

There were rumors that Trump was going to announce hostilities against Venezuela, if it was planned, it was scraped before the actual speech. I suppose the democrats should hope Trump gets involved in some regime change war as it could be the their best hope of winning in the near future, by suppressing the votes of those who are vehemently against any more wars of choice.

Trump laid out the bait to the Democrats, keep opposing ICE and deportation of illegal aliens, a loser for the dems and reinforces attacks as being unamerican and all that goes with it. I am sure he will keep reminding them of thier woke polices and the support for transition surgeries for children and the dems cannot dare change their position.

Same goes for war, the dems now support war and it is unlikely that they will really oppose an interventionist foreign policy. That and the fact that they have no opposition policies or ideas to solve the many problems facing the nation, other than raising taxes on the rich and promising more benefits that cannot be paid for. They no longer have any realistic policies except Trump bad, Maga bad. 

The country would be well served if there was a real opposition showcasing ideas that could be viewed as viable. I don't see any, I suspect that is the result of years of rewarding mediocracy as their main goal.

EU panics, having bet the house on Ukraine.

 HOPING RUSSIAN ASSETS CAN KEEP THEM ALIVE

DADDY IS NOT ANSWERING THE PHONE

We watch as the EU, due to its own delusions and bad decisions, is now panicking. The EU and most of the major economies are now on a path to collapse. The EU was  officially launched in 1993 and due to its green agenda and thoughtless immigration laws, coupled with an aging population, declining manufacturing base and then the disastrous attempt to damage Russia by cutting off its own energy supplies, is now in real trouble. 

I always believed the Ukraine project was a U.S. project originating with the machinations of Zbigniew Brezinski, Jimi Carters Secretary of state. Now watching the refusal of the EU leaders to accept the realties of the Ukraine war, one must wonder if they actually bet their future on gaining access to Ukrainian and Russian resources and control of the Black Sea. Second question is, did this plan originate with MI6 or other Europeans and convinced the U.S. it was doable and a good idea? With that hope rapidly diminishing it seems they are now desperate to save themselves by insisting that they have the right to confiscate the frozen Russian assets. These assets by the way, are actually assets of many Russians, not assets of the Russian government. 

There is quiet rebellion by many in the EU that this permanent freeze will have severe consequences, like giving the Russians the excuse to confiscate European assets still in Russia. It could also cause a flight from the Euro and other possibilities, none of them good.

Today we hear the talk of war in Europe, the continuous drumbeat that Russia will soon invade all of Europe. This is mostly coming from the UK, France and now Germany. At one time the pressure was on Poland to become an active participant in this war, but Poland after some thought, decided, NO. Now it seems France and the U.K. are  encouraging Germany, to put their manufacturing ability to work rearming, a very dangerous and unpredictable outcome for sure. 

The leadership in Germany is also trash talking Russia and hoping to gain public support for war with Russia. Rekindling all the animosity from WW2, WW1 and Versailles, it is a very dangerous decision in their panic. Many analysist worried about a reunited Germany and hoped to keep them in more of neutral position. A rearmed Germany will open up many internal debates about the past.  They could come to the conclusion that Russia is not the cause of their situation and begin to look west. 

At the same time their hope of insuring U.S. support for war if they get themselves in trouble is becoming increasingly unlikely. The U.S has its own problems economically and is stretched thin in many places. 

We see the EU engage in almost continuous meetings, talking among themselves, calling for a ceasefire, NATO troops in Ukraine and other untenable ideas to the Russians. It seems they believe they can bring about the results they want by agreeing among themselves. Not one has thought to call Moscow, maybe they fear Moscow will not even answer the phone. 

What their greatest fear should be is that Russia is in the process of a permanent divorce from Western Europe. Europe has nothing that Russia needs or wants and is looking to the east and south for its future cooperative business. The future of Europe is bleak indeed, with a unstable population, declining manufacturing and no stable energy to replace Russian energy.

It seems their reaction is to impose censorship at home, currency controls and may actually go to a Central Bank digital currency. These trends are already resulting in  the flight of assets out of the region, much of it to the United States.

Europe needs a change of direction and probably a change of leadership if it is to hope to adjust to the new world realignments underway.

 

Trump's economic plan.

 THERE REALLY IS A PLAN

NAVIGATING THROUGH OPPOSITION AND GLOBAL POLITICS

I recently watched a speech by Jim Rickards, a well know investment analyst and commentator, which was given at Hillsdale college. He articulated an outline of the Trump administrations economic policy. While only a basic outline, it indicates that this is the plan that will be attempted by the this administration. 

Relaying this information by myself, is not an endorsement, but just an attempt to understand what is happening, concerning economic policy.

The primary long term goal is to move the nation to economic self reliance and reduce dependence on foreign imports. This will translate to increasing jobs at home, particularly manufacturing jobs. 

The first thing Rickards pointed out is the reduction in the price of oil and gas. If successful in reducing the cost of energy, it will eventually help to reduce the cost of all goods, as they are all highly based on energy costs, this applies to all goods, agricultural costs and transportation. There seems to be some progress in this.

The next big problem is the debt and deficits which may be the biggest threat to the nations future. The debt is now 123% of the Gross Domestic product a unsustainable number. The plan is to control increased spending and increase revenues, he emphasized that any dramatic cuts in spending or increase in taxes will lead to reduced economic activity. It is hoped that a combination of tariffs and increased investment to manufacture in America will hopefully bring that about. Tariffs will not be implemented on companies that build plants in the U.S. as an incentive. There is some indication that there is some progress in that area. The hoped for result is not necessarily a reduction of the debt but a reduction of the debt to GDP ratio to 121% in the first year. It is hoped that this progress will become more each year to bring the ratio down to an acceptable ratio without damaging economic activity.

It seems it is a long term plan to control spending and increase revenues by increased economic activity. 

While of course this is a very brief outline of the plan, my observation is that Tariff's, while a good bargaining tool to address abuses in trade policy by partners, as in Trump's first term, seemed to be productive. I also believe the idea of a flat 10% tariff on all imports could be effective, particularly if that revenue or at least the majority of it is designated for infrastructure improvement, ports, rail lines and interstate highways all a cost of moving imported goods.

The move to use tariff's as punishment's for political purposes undermines this strategy. The U.S. Senate has passed a resolution to impose massive tariffs on nations that trade with Russia. I expect this effort will cause more flight away from America and undermine any effort to use tariffs to increase revenue.

While it it is obvious that increase in taxes or dramatic cuts to domestic spending can cause a decrease in economic activity, there is no reason not to cut any spending in foreign counties, including the reduction of the 750 military bases and foreign aid and military hardware to numerous countries. Cuts to foreign spending will not negatively effect the domestic economy.

A reevaluation of the foreign policy of the last 30 years may be the answer to solving the long term economic problems, while it seems we are reducing the aid to Ukraine, we are still sending many $100's of billions out of the country in aid, military hardware and intervention schemes not to mention financial lubrication of foreign leaders in an effort to continue political support for these schemes. 

I suspect that there is tremendous pressure by many factions to keep the funds flowing and funds spent overseas seem to be the easiest to launder, often back to parties here in the U.S. Sadly I am not optimistic that any effort to right this ship by Trump or anyone else can be successful. Far too may are now addicted to federal money. 

Is Venezuela vs U.S. = to Ukraine vs Russia.

 LIVING LESSONS IN GEOPOLITICAL CONFLICT

MADURO SHIFTS FROM ACCOMMODATION TO DEFIENCE

The situation in the Caribbean is intensifying with the seizure of an oil tanker in  International waters. At the same time we see the rhetoric coming out of Venezuela shifting from attempts to defuse the situation to open defiance and possibly baiting Trump to attack. We have also heard of U.S. military aircraft flying into Venezuela airspace possibly hoping for some sort of challenge by Venezuela. It can be expected that Venezuela will not take the bait to engage the U.S. unless directly attacked.

Maduro's shift can be explained by the reality that there is no accommodation with the U.S. and he will die no matter what position he takes. This may have resulted in his now using the situation to picture Venezuela as the small defenseless nation being bullied by the oppressive U.S.. It is a message that will be positively received in much of Central and South America. It will be magnified by all those who will see an opportunity to cause condemnations of the U.S. 

A continued blockade will be showcased by the starving and suffering people of Venezuela, who undoubtedly will be pictured as the victims in this standoff. It will be very counterproductive, to the hoped for, Monroe 2 doctrine.

An attack will be welcomed by Venezuela's geopolitical supporters who will see this as a payback for the Ukraine project and challenges in the South China sea. A prolonged conflict in Venezuela will be an economic and political disaster for the U.S. 

It can be expected that material support will be provided by both China and Russia and the mountains and jungles of Venezuela are not the deserts of the middle east. It is estimated that both Columbia and Brazil have tens of thousands of rebel military groups that would come to the aid of Venezuela. Any prolonged conflict in this very large country would not be something that the U.S. is not in a position to sustain.

We can now assume this crisis is not about drug running or terrorist activity, it is about China's investment in the oil resources of Venezuela, it has invested in infrastructure  and even an offshore drilling rigs. It has provided a steady market for sanctioned Venezuelan oil. The U.S. considers its sanctions to be enforceable as international law. That premise is being challenged in many places, but in the Caribbean it is a very red flag to Washington, similar as, Ukraine in NATO, is a red flag to Moscow.

Some believe that the hope of obtaining access to Venezuelan oil is in direct relationship for the eventual war and overthrow of the government of Iran. At present a war with Iran will result in a catastrophic oil crisis within days. An ability to offset that with Venezuelan oil would provide oil for the western world and at the same time cut off oil supplies to China from both Iran and Venezuela. Understanding this, makes it clear that this is developing into a geopolitical standoff that can become very dangerous very quickly.

We can expect that Trump will be savaged by his political opposition and those who desire to sustain their power and control, no matter the direction this takes.

There is also one other possibility about this, could it be a show, to particularly the American electorate, that continued great power conflict can only result in disaster for everyone.  Must the world be on the edge of the precipice before the majority accept a new era of international order, based on cooperation rather than confrontation?

Economic realties shaping new global order.

 IRREVERSABLE SHIFT UNDERWAY

HOPE FOR MANAGED ACCEPTANCE

This week we see the U.S. set out to insure dominance over the western Hemisphere. This new focus is being caused by the realization that the U.S. can no longer dictate economic and political policies to the world. While there are many who would like to continue that ability, it is on an irreversible path to coming to an end. Attempting to force or intimidate others will only speed up that shift and isolate the U.S. in the future.

We have watched as Trump has attempted to continue that U.S. ability to require adherence with sanctions  and even punishing tariffs. In this hemisphere he is threatening regime change and military punishment. We can assume that there are factions advising everything from increased economic and political pressure to outright war, all will not stop the global shift underway.

We have watched as India openly refused to end oil purchases from Russia and then signed over 20 economic agreements with Russia. Looking at the map, we see they are neighbors, Russia has the resources that India needs and has had respectful and cooperative relations for decades. Threatening economic relations by the United States as compared to the growing economic opportunity in BRICS is a no brainer for India. They cannot damage their economic future for a tentative access to U.S. markets. This reality is materializing most everywhere.

Recently Japan was pressured by the United States to cut off some selective machine tools to China, this resulted in billions of dollars of canceled contracts by China. Those orders were then picked up by Russia and may never return to Japan. The U.S. then pressured Japan to stop buying oil from Russia, the new conservative president did not hesitate in saying, NO. With gulf oil supplies increasingly vulnerable, it will not commit economic suicide, even if it risks access to U.S. markets.

We can expect that this scene is going to be repeated in South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, Taiwan and even Australia. These countries are all neighbors with China and Russia and a cooperative economic reality is essential to their future. China is the dominant trading partner with all of them and contrary to western narrative, they are not feeling militarily threated by China. 

The same is also true in Africa, were many are throwing off the last remnants of European colonialism in exchange for mutually advantageous economic development and prosperity. 

While the U.S. may attempt to force adherence in the western Hemisphere it will  not be any easy ride. Brazil is committed to economic trade with the BRICS and there is a lot of fence sitters watching what is happening all around the world. More false and disrespectful moves by the U.S. to force control, will likely cause them to move away from the U.S., both politically and economically.

Internally we watched as the fed lowered interest rates, as many hoped, at the same time in reaction, Gold moved to $4325 and silver to $64.10 a symptom of an increase flow out of dollars into metals, in expectation of a further decline in the buying power of the dollar. This is also going to relate to a further hard sell for the increasing U.S. debt, 

While most Americans pay little attention to the dismal situation that the U.S. is in, the rest of the world, adversaries and trading partners, do understand that hard times are in the works.

While many would like to blame Trump for this situation it is an accumulated reality caused by decades of corruption and mismanagement, it will not be saved by any single administration. There is no painless playbook, there is no magic formula, it is a whole spectrum of crisis all converging at once.

I believe the least effective way of dealing with all this is by threats, bluster and intimidation, those tactics no longer work and are counterproductive. The United States can adjust to the new economic realities and even prosper, it will not be painless, but doable. It will need to stop the anti-everybody propaganda and realize the United States does sit in a very secure position with vast oceans all around. Most of the world does not wish the country harm, but does desire a new economic and political reality that respects national sovereignty. 

For the U.S. to be successful it will need to be united. Is that possible or will it be whipsawed by some sort of reaction to more authoritarian and socialist economic policy, similar to what is happening in the EU, that will really put a fork in the great American experiment.

 

Escalation in Venezuela, China fear root cause.

 CONTAINING CHINA IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE

RETALIATION INCOMING

The embargo of Venezuelan oil is now a reality, with the U.S. seizure of an oil tanker carrying Venezuelan oil in the Caribbean. It is now becoming more clear that the Venezuelan crisis is more about Chinese investments in the Caribbean than drugs or other supposed issues. 

Venezuelan oil requires special refineries and the only refinery that handled that oil is in Houston, Texas. That is why after the sanctions levied against Venezuela their oil output dropped dramatically, that was until China and India began buying Venezuelan oil and refining it in their refineries. Then China eventually invested in a cooperative agreement with Venezuela and built a refinery in Venezuela, a cooperative effort that benefited China and Venezuela. That, coupled with Chinese investments in Bahamian ports and other port facilities in the Caribbean has raised red flags in Washington, especially with the Monroe 2 doctrine attempting to limit others investing in the Western Hemisphere.

It could be pointed out that the U.S., rather than tilting a windmills around the world, could have been investing in cooperative agreement in the Caribbean for decades, but chose to engage in intimidation and sanctions rather than cooperative agreements.  Obviously there is need and a void of investment that is now being filled by those who have the investment capital. I suspect that much of the investment capital in the U.S. is tied up servicing its massive and increasing debt.

This seizure is going to have repercussions around the world, much like the seizure of Russian assets in 2022. We can now expect others, not only in South America, to increase their liquidation of U.S. debt and flee to alliances with those we hope to contain. We can expect that the repercussions may grow into a very costly and dangerous result. 

 

21st. Century strategies: Strategic patience and Attrition.

 OBTAINING OBJECTIVES WITHOUT ALL OUT WAR

STRATEGIES USED, BOTH ECONOMICALLY AND MILITARILY

We are now seeing the results of strategies that may be unique to the 21st Century, whether through necessity or planned strategies for long term results.

While it is always unpopular to quote hated adversaries, one must remember the admonitions of Osama Bin Laden who often repeated, but the west largely dismissed and ignored, public videos warning the U.S. and the west that their goal was the exit of western powers from the region. They promised that they would bleed the west into a realization of that objective, his warnings culminated in the 911 attack on the U.S.. Most would say that this attack was the objective, but the real objective was to bait the U.S. into a emotional response that resulted in the expenditure of near $10 trillion, the disruption of the entire European region through immigration, the repulsion of much of the U.S. electorate for more war and a massive increase in debt, always what precedes the fall of all empires.

Most considered Bin Laden a foolish and unsophisticated Arab running around the mountains in sandals and a AK., it is obvious to the objective observer that he has largely succeeded in his predictions. Afghanistan is now ruled by the same actors as pre 911, Iraq and Syria will soon be devoid of western troops. The U.S., by any objective standard, is bankrupt and western Europe is on the verge of economic and political collapse. While not having the military power to take on the west, he was able to understand the hubris and expected emotional response that would lead to self destruction.

One must wonder if Hamas, with little real power, did not take a lesson in Bin Laden strategy, understanding the polices and emotions of their enemy. Is Israel now in a better position than before the Hamas attack?

All this also requires strategic patience, after all, bin Laden is dead, as is many of Hamas, and decades have passed, but the result is now becoming obvious.

We see some of the same strategies used by the Russian federation. Intelligence portrayed Russia as weak and unable to withstand a unified coalition backing Ukraine, to bring about regime change and dismemberment. The strategists knew Russia could never accept Ukraine in NATO. Understanding this, they hoped Russia would react and roll deep into Ukraine, were they would be vulnerable to insurgent predation. This coupled with economic strangulation would soon bring down Russia. While Russia initially made a show of force to encourage negotiations, as soon as they realized there would not be negotiations, they wiredrew into defensive positions. Positions close to their homeland, easy logistic support, and a flexible line that would withdraw if needed, but then continue in a policy of attrition. Attrition of western equipment and Ukrainian manpower all the while discouraging the introduction of NATO troops, that would need to move men and materials 800 miles to the combat line.

They never took out the bridges and rail lines, intentionally allowing all this material to move east, where it inevitably would be destroyed. Attrition, not dramatic, not shock and awe, coupled with strategic patience has worn down the material capabilities of the west and by their own strategy of not buying Russian energy is now emaciating their manufacturing base and causing many of their citizens to turn to burning wood to stay warm this winter. Western Europe is now likely in the most vulnerable situation it has been in since WW2.

The Russian strategists had to swallow hard after attacks on their homeland and their strategic bombers, and even revolt among some at home to escalate and go to all out war. Their strategic patience was viewed by their adversaries as weakness and incompetence and we still hear that narrative today.  Then one must ask, is the west stronger today than in 2014 when this started? Is western Europe stronger economically and politically? Are they really capable of going to war with Russia?

New U.S. foreign policy strategy underway?

 ATTACK ON VENEZUELA MAY NOT BE NECESSARY

GLOBAL SPHERES OF INFLUNECE MATERILIZING

It is now appearing that the new U.S. strategy is underway, it is not up for debate. It seems that the U.S. has decided it cannot control the world, but hopes to control the western Hemisphere. Venezuela and the fleet that is currently there is an indication of this strategy. It is likely an agreement with Russia has already been made to withdraw from at least the Caribbean in exchange for the U.S. deciding that the Ukraine project is now a loser for the U.S. It does have the power to strangle Venezuela into submission, especially if its other options decide it is in their best interest to move on.

While the Caribbean may be an easy area for the U.S. to control, Brazil, a founding member of BRICS, probably will be another matter. We can assume that the U.S. can control all of North America, Central America and the Caribbean area, by the threat of military power. It may be able to coax much of South America by a combination of real diplomacy, respect and mutual cooperative economic prosperity. The question will be, can the U.S. engage in such a policy over an extended time. 

It is appearing that the Middle east strategy of the past that cost the U.S. near $10 Trillion and many lives, both our own and those of the region, is coming to an end. It has already been announced that U.S. troops are leaving Syria and one can expect the same will soon happen in Iraq. It is hoped that influence can be maintained by diplomacy and mutual cooperation, we will see if that is possible.

It is being acknowledged that the U.S. cannot contain China by economic means and military conflict is a gamble at best. China this week set an all time record of a $1 Trillion trade surplus with its trading partners. The U.S. has realized how dependent it has become on Chinese goods in most every sector. 

A key to the evolving spheres of influence can be indicated by a world map, something anyone who is interested should have. It can be predicted that the long term history of alliances and trading partners is reemerging as the impossible task of world domination by any one power comes to an end.

One might expect to see troop and base closings in more areas as the U.S. has over 750 bases around the world, more than can be afforded.

We are going to hear and watch as the accusations of surrender, treason and other allegations can soon be expected, but the reality is the big threat to the U.S. is not China or Russia, but an escalating debt and an unsustainable baked in fiscal policy coupled with an economy based on financial transactions rather than wealth producing manufacturing. It may take decades of unified discipline to turn this all around. The real challenge to the U.S. is mostly all at home.

U.S. proposes new National security strategy.

 OPENING TO NEW GLOBAL ORDER?

REALIZING THE NEW REALITIES?

Last week we witnessed a 30 page document that seems to indicate the Trump administration's opening attempt to bring about discussion and dialogue to a new view of the world order that has existed for the last 80 years. While only a sketchy outline, it does indicate a willingness to embrace the realities of a changing world and the limitations of Washington's position in the world.

It embraces the need for an end to the Ukraine conflict as being important to be able to address other very important issues. It essentially dismisses Europe as being now on a path of irreversible decline. It hints at a new upgraded Monroe doctrine for Washington's relations with the western Hemisphere. It is willing to downplay China's threats to an economic competitor. It also notes the dangers to any changes threatened by entrenched bureaucracies or "deep state " in the west. It is obviously a proposal for negotiation and dialogue, not an executive order.

Concerning Russia and it relationship with the west it admits NATO expansion is now to be reconsidered and may even coincide with Putin's often talked of  "new security architecture" to avoid big power conflict. One can expect that those lengthy meeting in Moscow are indeed talking about more than Ukraine. Some speculate that besides the trash talking with China there are other more serious talks ongoing.

While we can expect that we will soon hear about Trump's weakness in facing challenges from our adversaries and possibly a move by many to force him out, rather than embrace any changes in the U.S. foreign policy, the changes happening will not be ended or possibly even be delayed. Real  military confrontation is not desired by anyone, and these changes can be diplomatically embraced with a new spirit of cooperation and realizing the limitations now becoming a reality.

While many will say we need a new president and a tough stance to the world, the reality is the United States hegemony is quickly eroding and no new personnel will change that fact.

It is indeed a difficult period that, if to be successful, will require some bi-partisan cooperation to engage in a debate and negotiation balancing the best interests of the country with the realities tied to the massive debt and deficits which are now unsustainable and have eroded the economic and inevitably the military power of the United States. 

Political trash talkers, global rearmament.

 TALKING TOUGH, GOOD FOR ARMS BUSINESS

MANY SHOULD BE FIRED FOR LOOSE TALK

It is now almost a daily occurrence that some government leader or official makes threats of war. In most case it is trash talk, in an attempt to appear tough or decisive, it usually results in increased war preparation and worse diplomatic relations between all involved. We have many examples, George Bush 2 in his infamous declaration about the "Axis of evil" describing Iran, Iraq, and North Korea. At that time they had little cooperation or any real connection to each other. This statement was directly followed by the invasion of Iraq and the move by Iran and North Korea to obtain a nuclear deterrent. North Korea has since become a nuclear power, but Iran has decided it was not the direction they wanted to go, but the trash talking continues and it is wonder that they have not become a nuclear power. They have since become more cooperative with each other.

Then of course there is the Russia/Ukraine situation, U.S. trash talkers run their mouths off contumely, demonizing Russia, boasting about killing Russians and encouraging Ukraine that they can prevail over Russia.  A disaster for Ukraine and a massive rearmament of Russia and NATO. This week we heard an Italian leader of NATO suggest that NATO should consider a pre-emptive strike on Russia, we can only assume he meant a nuclear strike.  Russia's response was clear and then also caused more trashing talking about Russia's aggression. We could only expect that Russia will push to shorten the time needed to respond to any such provocation. We also had a U.S. general in NATO brag that NATO could take over Kaliningrad, a Russian parcel in the Baltic, in days. He didn't mention what would happen after that. Both these high ranking bull shitters should have been fired immediately.

We can also remember a pacific operations U.S. air force general that predicted we would be at war with China by 2025. Then we complained and were astonished by a huge increase in Chinese military preparations. This guy should have been fired immediately.

Today, it's now South America were military preparedness is being increased by nations in the region often with the purchase of advanced weapons from Russia and China. Much of this trash talk is coming from the administration and the consequences will be an increase, if that is possible, in distrust of all things U.S.

While the long term diplomatic consequences are still unknown we can expect none of this talk produces a positive result. Of course, it will increase the debt of many of these nations and will be good for arms manufacturers, maybe that is what it is all about anyway.

Eu miffed at U.S. Ukraine position.

 TRUMP IS EXITING UKRIANE CONFLICT

NATO NO LONGER HAS A PLAN

It seems clear that the results of the 5 hour meeting in Moscow between Putin and Trump's negotiators has infuriated NATO. We can only assume that NATO now understands that Trump is distancing the U.S. from this conflict. It is understandable that having committed to the U.S. Ukraine project they are now in the position of dealing with the consequences. While many will blame Trump, the reality is that this conflict is now going poorly for all involved. Ukrainians are dying in massive numbers, the economies of western Europe can only decline without access to Russian energy and the U.S. is attempting to deal with a massive debt with its possible severe economic crisis. Russia is of course also suffering, but this is an existential threat to their survival and will not compromise on their objectives.

They have the choice of sucking it up, putting their hubris under a blanket and moving on or go to war with Russia. It is an easy choice, if you face the choices objectively and rationally. There are lots of players who still refuse to move on.

The U.S. is beginning to realize that the era of Pax Americana is coming to a close. We have squandered our sound dollar, our manufacturing base and are now left with a massive debt and deficits as far as the eye can see. Cutting spending like the proposals of Musk and DOGE will result in reduced economic activity, as much of the new economy is dependent on Government spending. Raising taxes while seemingly easy will also result in reduced activity and possibly a flight of capital out of the country. There is no EASY solution and the sooner that the U.S. realizes it cannot get past this with threats, intimidation and war, the sooner the country can adjust to the new reality of a changed world.

The whole focus of the Federal Reserve and the federal government will soon be to figure out how to service the debt and interest payments and avoid some sort of default or massive inflation. 

The U.S. cannot bring manufacturing back quickly, nor remedy decades of irresponsible financial policy.  It is going to be painful and extended and we will need the good will of our allies and competitors, whose best interest is to have the U.S. make a successful transition. We could probably get more cooperation from our adversaries than we will get from domestic political opportunists.

Sovereign debt at root of desire for war.

 IT WILL COLLAPSE WHEN THERE ARE NOT ENOUGH BUYERS FOR THIS DEBT

FINANCIAL COMPETITION WILL LEAVE THE WEST BEHIND

We continually hear of European nations planning for war, from talk of increasing their military numbers and spending more money on weapons. All this talk when their biggest problem is providing the services promised to their citizens, and finding buyers of their debt.  They are now talking of currency controls from outlawing cash transactions and forcing registration of  holders of gold and silver. At the same time metals are fleeing the continent for other places around the world. It is expected that  their plan to go to a Central Bank digital currency will accelerate the flight of assets out of the EU. EU nations are even encouraging the rearmament of Germany, something at one time would have been considered a bad idea.

Japan now admits that it central bank is the majority holder of its debt. Japan's debt is now over 200% of GDP. the highest in the world. At the same time it is being encouraged to rearm in an attempt to insure its position in relation to China.

The United States debt continues to rise at unsustainable rates, but still has the advantage of more financial freedom and while devaluing its dollar in 1933 and 1971 and a continuing devaluation by deficit spending and inflation has never completely ended it currency for something else, any attempt to introduce a CBDC or some other currency will result in a massive reaction. Quantitative easing and other fancy sounding names for Central bank purchasing its own debt is a indication that trouble is brewing.

Some assume that if there was not an alternative, all this spending and debt could go on indefinitely, but empires have historically ended when they could no longer repay their debt. Today there are alternatives rising with countries with little or manageable debt benefiting by the shift of assets into their countries. This includes China, Russia and much of Asian countries with high manufacturing and resource production, which creates wealth. 

While previous wars often put to work idle or underutilized manufacturing by countries expanding their debt, it is no longer the same situation. It may be difficult to expand an already massive debt, so one could expect efforts to raise taxes and expropriate assets from its citizens. It will result in a reaction and one can expect it difficult to rally national sacrifice to enable governments that no longer have the trust of their citizenry. This and the real ability to ramp up military production may make actually prevailing in an extended war very difficult. 

Possibly only a replacement of the current leadership in the EU and a new focus by the U.S., can prevent conflict and a transition to a peaceful co-existence.

It is in Russia's best interest to slow walk end of war.

 EU AND UKRAINE NOT READY FOR LASTING AGREEMENT

RUSSIA OWNS THE CLOCK

While we see Trump and the U.S. hoping to negotiate an imminent end to the Ukraine conflict, others are still not ready for a lasting settlement. We should expect this conflict to continue far into 2026. 

Trump is till battling the naysayers in the U.S. who still can't comprehend that Ukraine has lost and that as time goes by they will have little leverage for negotiation.

We still have those in the EU, with military forces that cannot in reality come to the aid of Ukraine and economies declining by the day. still talking of war, preparation for war and even pre-emptive strikes on Russia.

In Ukraine, Zelensky is becoming a lame duck that may not have the ability to negotiate an end to this conflict, there still ae many who want to fight on. Ukraine should be in the process of preparing for elections, it would give any possible negotiation more credibility. The problem is that most opposition have been exiled, imprisoned or worse and it would take many months to actually have an election.

Russia has been clear as to what is needed for lasting peace and the opposition is still not ready to accept defeat or any compromise. The EU and Ukraine have hopes of winning the peace by preparing for more war in the future. This reality will prevent any end to this conflict in the near future.

I suspect that Trump understands that an end to the Ukraine conflict would open up may possibilities for peace in other areas. It would allow Russia and China to cooperate in exerting strong influence on Iran to begin the process of lasting peace in that area. Again there are forces who do not want peace in that region. 

The reality is the western European countries are moving into a period of volatile economic, and social uncertainty, which will make them less likely to be able to wage war on Russia. Ukraine is physically exhausted and its supporters are near exhaustion, economically and in there ability to supply weaponry, They all have serious domestic political problems at home. Again, Russia owns the clock and the longer it keeps ticking the less likely of war against Russia. While Russia has suffered greatly from this conflict, it is in their best interest for its opponents to to decline until they are ready for a lasting peace agreement.

U.S. can't afford war anywhere.

 WAR WILL BE END OF TRUMP'S HOPES

DOMESTIC ISSUES BIGGEST THREAT

While it seems Trump has put Ukraine off of his priority list and also realizes that war with Iran will most likely cause a severe disruption of oil prices or worse, he is now in a lose, lose situation in Venezuela. Has he finally been trapped by those who desire an end to his presidency? I suspect it is a long list of those who hope that Trump fails, maybe even some in his administration.

The economic realities of deficits, debt and diminished manufacturing capacity are the biggest threats to the United States, that and the desire to keep the corrupt gravy train going as long as possible. The United States and Trump cannot afford war anywhere, it will trigger a far greater economic crisis that is brewing and smoldering, just waiting for such a match to blow it all up.

Now Trump has listened to his foreign policy geniuses who has assured him that threats and intimidation will send Maduro packing and that Venezuela is hoping to embrace him with waiting arms if he just squeezes them a little more. It is a familiar story that we have heard about Iraq, Syria and of course Russia, a repeated story that has cost the U.S. trillions and  involved millions of deaths. 

Now it seems Trump is sort of boxed in, just what his enemies want, attack Venezuela and set off an economic tsunami or back off and look weak and indecisive. It may be too late to expect Venezuela to save the day by some sort of negotiation and a narrative of victory. Time is running out for Trump to either pull the trigger on Venezuela and risk economic ruin or back off and focus on things where he has the power to make some positive gains.

He may be forced to show a little humility, a hard nut for Trump to swallow.