Is Telephone polling becoming obsolete?

WHAT CAN REPLACE TELEPHONE POLLING AS AN ACCURATE GAUGE OF PUBLIC OPINION?

ARE POLLING COMPANIES THE NEXT CASUALTY OF THE DIGITAL AGE?

A lot of questions asked, but is polling even now possible? Many people no longer have a land line phone and those that do rarely answer calls that are not recognized. Most rely on an answering machine to screen calls and only return those that they really want. Cell phones all have an ability to indicate the number calling, many do not answer unrecognized callers. Leave a message if you want to talk to these people.

It is very likely that polling companies are mostly winging it in the hope to survive in today's environment. They are likely to go the way of stock brokers. Maybe they can find a way of obtaining accurate information, but the old telephone based polling methods are likely to become a thing of the past. 

Same goes for political calls at election time. I believe they have become a big waste of time. You are lucky to get a 10% answer rate and that is when you are calling friendly party members. 

Emails are now going in the same direction, we are all overloaded with emails and text messages, which result in a numbness to it all. We have become overwhelmed by information. Please, we don't need any more information that we don't really want.

It appears that the information age has brought political communication fully back to the old tried and true door knocking and personal communication. This is still very effective, but very time consuming and hard work. In a local election even up to U.S. Representative it would be wise to scrap all the media and knock on doors night and day. 

Television is still a formidable tool, but even this media is not quite what it used to be. In conversations with many, on both sides of the isle, they are tuning out news and commentary shows and switching to streaming programming like Netflix.  Many have just had enough of it all.

The only true poll will be at election time, lets hope that we can keep that honest and accurate.

Political chess game of Covid relief continues.

TRUMP MAKES A MOVE, NOW DEMS NEXT

PROBABLY NOT LAWFUL, BUT WHO WANTS TO SUE TO DENY BENEFITS?

The political maneuvering over a fourth round of Covid relief intensifies with Trump extending some benefits by executive order. The democrats have been advocating a huge 4th round even before the ink was dry on round 3. They want a package of over $3 Trillion, near the annual budget of the Federal government. It has always been unlikely that they will ever get that much, especially when much of the spending is not directly related to the unemployed or those damaged by the shut down.

The order extends suspension of payment on student loans, since most of this is now owed to the federal government it is unlikely to be challenged.

Extending unemployment benefits of $400 per week, still a large incentive not to go back to work. The fly in this ointment is the states will need to contribute $100.  But, if they don't they may not get the other $300. More chess for sure.

Suspension of the pay-roll tax for the rest of the year. These are federal taxes and in an emergency maybe this can fly. It applies to wages under $100,000. This will be a huge pay increase for those that are working. It will be some incentive to be back at work. It will also provide direct economic stimulus without any paper work or checks to write.

Some incentives to suspend evictions, it is questionable that the federal government can do this. It is much more a state matter. They will soon need a bailout of landlords or banks to cover these losses.

What is not included is liability protection for employers, schools or anyone due to the virus. The democrats refuse this protection. Such lawsuits will hamper any economic recovery. It will be another windfall for the trial lawyers and redistribution.

The biggest thing missing is blanket grants to the states. While they have received aid concerning the virus, it will be unlikely that any bailouts of states with a mismanagement problem can be expected.

This is likely meant to encourage the Democrats to now bargain for a relief bill that will be supported by both sides. It is now their move. Do they want to sue to stop these measures? That would be used as a political weapon by the republicans. We will likely see the new talking points today, as of this AM, they have yet to fashion a good response.

Police need the support of all communities now

NATION ON VERGE OF DOMESTIC DISASTER

LEADERS NEED TO RESTORE CALM NOW

The point may be coming when restoring domestic order may not be possible. Leaders have used race relations to advance their political agenda and it may very well have gone beyond what they had hoped.  It started with the Zimmerman/Martin incident in Florida in 2012. The local district attorney looked at the evidence and did not think there was sufficient evidence for charges. Public outcry and intervention of the federal attorney general made it into a national story during a presidential election year. When the evidence was presented to the jury, Zimmerman was acquitted. But much political hay was made. The Michael Brown incident was similar;  it was hyped by the federal authorities and the media. "Hands up don't shoot", is still chanted in rallies today even though it was not true. Ferguson burned, riots went on for weeks, many lost all they owned, and some died, but the political advantage was worth it. The Garner case in New York was another sad story. Many of these incidents could be avoided if people would just respect the authority of the police. When the police decide they are going to handcuff you, you cannot change their mind by resisting, they must follow through, it then escalates and someone gets hurt. Of course police sometimes act beyond the law and are reprimanded or punished after due process.  There are many thousands of interactions between police and citizens every day. It usually not an experience we enjoy. I would assume all parents instruct their children how to respond to authority in tense situations. Whatever you do, do not threaten, run, act erratic or hurl insults upon a policemen and definitely do not assault a policemen - these actions raise the adrenaline and puts everyone on a hair trigger. Today it is even worse - regular assassinations of policemen have made it more like a continuous combat situation. This will not end well for anyone. We have groups like "Black Lives Matter" that have encouraged the assassination of police officers. These people have not been condemned by the black leaders of the country and often encouraged. Anything for political advantage.

If this situation is not calmed now I would expect to see large numbers of experienced policemen retiring and moving to private security positions, for which there may soon be a large demand. I also can foresee that police will be reluctant to enter certain neighborhoods. If they do not have support of those communities how could you blame them.  Police will need to go back to armored clothing, equipment and heavier firepower in crowd control. I would not be surprised to see incidents where after taking fire from within a crowd, many will be hurt. This needs to be avoided now. We will see if Obama and his race hustlers will now see what they have created and attempt to lower the tension or if they will decide there is more political advantage in more chaos.

Gun sales have been escalating since the 1990's. Some started directly after the LA riots where the only stores that were spared were those of Korean immigrants who manned positions on their roofs with heavy weapons. The riots in Ferguson, Baltimore and the increasing race tensions have added to the fear of suburban and rural residents. Many more have bought guns for protection. When you see the same politicians who have stoked racial tensions and increased divisions by their policies and words now demand restrictions on honest citizens' gun rights it is just more proof that their intentions are not good.  What is needed is a sincere attempt at calming the divisions in the country. A sincere attempt at encouraging private sector real jobs in inner city neighborhoods. If that means no city, state or federal taxes for 10 years, it would still be a good deal.  Not more welfare, food stamps, etc. Jobs create self worth, dignity and self respect. It also earns respect by other citizens. While government policies that encourage private jobs to grow in these communities would be a good start, the dialogue that white people are the problem will not be productive for anyone. I sincerely believe that many white people would volunteer to mentor or help with English, or teach minorities, but I don't see an environment that would allow that in the near future. It would more likely be a demand for more money for the established groups to hand out the benefits.

I did not vote for Obama, but after his election I proclaimed to my young son that if he was a good president he could be the best thing that has happened for race relations and for black citizens in general. His presidency has set race relations back 50 years. I don't know if this is by accident or from his own demons, being an African-American, or if from his ideology. It's clear that the "why" does not matter at this point. His presidency has been a dismal failure for race relations in this country.




Originally published 7/9/2016

Russia to register Coronavirus vaccine in next week.

MASS INOCULATIONS TO BEGIN IN OCTOBER 

HEALTHCARE WORKERS AND ELDERLY PRIORITY

Russia has announced that it will register its first vaccine for corvid-19 by august 12, 2020. It expects to start vaccinations shortly thereafter and begin mass inoculation in October. Many are skeptical that this vaccine has been adequately tested. There are reports that some of the researchers have inoculated themselves in an effort to speed up the process of testing. These methods are not approved by the world health community.

It will be interesting to see if this mass inoculation will occur that soon or is it just an attempt to be the first to announce they are going to start vaccinations on a mass scale.

No matter, it will be a step in the process of testing and approving a workable vaccine. Any problems that may develop will be a setback to the Russian government.

It may be like everything else in the world today, a political opportunity. Hopefully it work out well and hasten a real vaccine to put an end to this pandemic.

Political War casualties mount.

WILL MEDIA, SPORTS AND GOVERNMENT EVER BE THE SAME?

POLITICAL BIAS PERMEATES EVERYTHING

While Donald Trump has been blamed for much of the division in the country, the reality is that the organized opposition to Trump is the real source of the division.

The first casualty was the establishment media, when this election is over, many of them will  succumb to their damage. Newspapers will be the first to go, their is little hope that they will be in existence 10 years from now. Their bias has increased dramatically in the last decade. While they always leaned in one way or another, but when the newspapers consolidated under the control of just a few major corporations they lost any objectivity that they may have had.

The cable and major news networks have been severely damaged, many have become nothing more than propaganda outlets for the Democrat socialist party. They are obsessed with damaging Trump and his supporters in any way possible. There is very little objectivity left. Much of this can also be attributed to the news outlets being consumed by entertainment companies, who now control what is reported and what is intentionally overlooked. If we look at the casualties on the staffs and on the programming of these companies it is amazing at the slaughter that has occurred, from Bill O'Reilly on Fox to now Ellen Degeneres. No one is safe. The list of people forced out under the guise of political correctness is pilling up with no end in sight.

Social media companies have taken sides and blocked opinion and free speech of those they do not endorse or support. It is time for a large media company with their own satellite system that offers news, internet, entertainment and social media with a strict policy of free speech and objectivity. There is thirst for such an enterprise. It would be very successful.

The politicization of the Department of Justice, the State department and the Intelligence communities and other federal offices under the Obama administration is a sorry indictment on our government. There is a long list of employees retired or fired due to their partisanship, likely it is just the tip of the iceberg. Can anyone now have faith in the FBI or intelligence community?

Even funerals have become an opportunity for a political statement.

Sports is likely to be the latest casualty. The professional sports leagues will regret the day they folded to political pressure to become involved in political issues. Sports was always a haven from the cares, stress and monotony of every day living. It united people in support of their home team. It was fun. Is it all over now? They should have united in their staying away from all politics.

Presidents and others often attended games or threw out the first pitch, it was not a political policy statement, but just a point of unity for the nation. Much of this also has to do with the media tycoons who control the coverage of these events. Without coverage their revenue dies. It will also die as a growing number of people will refuse to watch.

Corporations have also succumbed to political pressure for some political cause. I am sure it is being taken noticed by many. They, as sponsors, have pressured teams and others to take political positions. There was a day when corporations and business stayed clear of political issues, it was a good policy.

We have been in an all out political war for the future of the country. Many hate everything about America. They are determined to discard everything that made this country a place of opportunity for everyone who did what was required to be successful. It has been a tactic of divide and conquer. In any war there are casualties, there will likely be many more.

2020 election, flash-backs of 1968,1972

SAME ISSUES, MANY OF THE SAME PLAYERS

WILL IT RESULT IN SAME OUTCOME?

Having been around at the time of the 1968 and 1972 elections,  I am struck by the similarities of the issues and tactics compared to this election.

The 1968 election was between Richard Nixon of California, and Hubert Humphrey of Minnesota. It was turbulent time with protests and rioting opposed to the Vietnam war. There was also many civil rights protests and the Black-Power movement. This election marked a dramatic shift and re-alignment of the states supports for political parties. 

Nixon promised to end the War with honor and Humphrey called for an immediate withdrawal and to continue the social policies of the Johnson administration who refused to run for re-election. There was also a third party run by George Wallace who opposed much of the civil rights agenda.

Earlier in the year there was the assassinations of Martin Luther King and  Robert Kennedy, who had won the California primary that day. This was followed by rioting in many of the largest cities in the country.

Nixon ran on Law and order and ending the war but on honorable conditions. He ran to appeal to the democrat voters in the southern states, which were locked up by the democrats since the FDR era. This was a time of serious social unrest much more widespread than today.

This was the time of the founding and growth of the "Students for a democratic society" and then the   "Weather Underground"  both adherents of  Marxist Leninist ideology of revolution and implementing a socialist government in America.

Nixon was not exactly well liked, he was hated by the media and had been labeled "Tricky Dick" by many. Nixon went on to win 32 states, Humphrey 13, and Wallace 5.

In 1972, the contest was between the incumbent Nixon and George McGovern of South Dakota. The war was still going on but had actually been escalated and there were peace talks being negotiated with North Vietnam. Nixon had opened up relations with China as a counter to the USSR. He ran on a foreign policy platform and also on law and order. McGovern ran on ending the war and a guaranteed minimum income.

Nixon first used the term ,"Silent Majority" to appeal to mainstream America.

McGovern was the favorite of counter culture who assumed he would work to legalize marijuana, end the draft and institute more social policies.

The time was marked by the violent action of the Weather Underground. SDS, and the Black Panthers, all Marxist organizations. They engaged in bombings, arson, and attacks on police and government buildings. They financed their movement with bank robberies and other theft. Today they can extort finances from american corporations.They protested  against white privilege, capitalism and U.S. imperialism. Some of the young leaders of that time are the same leaders of the present movement.

Barack Obama began his presidential campaign in the home of Bill Ayers a Weather Underground founder and convicted of numerous bombings. Many knew what he was talking about when Obama hoped to "Fundamentally Transform America".  Bob Avakian was also around at that time and is now the head of the U.S. Communist party and endorsed Joe Biden Yesterday.

Nixon won 49 states and McGovern 1, Massachusetts. The southern realignment that began under Nixon is still pretty firm for Republicans, the coasts have now mostly succumbed to the lure of left wing ideology. The cities are now mostly populated and ruled by adherents to that same socialist ideology, the results have not been pretty. It is unlikely that the landslide of 1972 will ever be repeated.

U.S. and Europe cornovirus statisitics.

DO LOCK DOWNS JUST PROLONG THE INEVITABLE

END RESULT IS OFTEN THE SAME

It seems many are concerned that corvid-19 infections are now on the rise. While this is happening in the southern and western United States it is also happening in most other parts of the world as well. With the exception of Germany, the infection rates and deaths are mostly comparable. Are we really able to eliminate the spread of this virus, or just slow it and hope to control it?

As of  August 2, the U.S. has 157,935 deaths listed as a result of this virus, this is a death rate of 477 per million.

The combined deaths of 5 major counties in Europe is 149, 275, the combined population of these countries is slightly less than the United States.

Spain 28,445  deaths,   rate of 608 per million.

U.K.   46,193                           680 per million

Italy    25,146                           581 per million

France 30,265                          464 per million

Germany 9,226                        110 per million.

Belgium has the highest death rate in the world of 849 per million.

The United States has tested over 59 million, near 20% of the population.

Sweden which did not shut down, but did recommend social distancing has a death rate of 568 per million. They closed no business or schools and their death rate is comparable to the rest of the Western countries.

It seems this virus slowly increase in numbers, then increases rapidly for approximately 60 days and then declines. This pattern occurred in Europe were it was earlier than the United States, then northeastern United States, now southern and western U.S. Shut down do slow the infection rate but will not eliminate the infection. It is likely that until a vaccine is put into place, which will likely be another year until it is effective, this virus will spread until most all get infected. The key to controlling deaths is for the elderly and people with compromised health to limit their exposure.

The reality is that most Americans do not know anyone who has died of this disease. It then becomes more difficult for people to keep up with the social distancing and masks.

Their is evidence that there are financial incentives for hospitals and the health care industry to report deaths due to corvid, even when that may not be the case, as they will be compensated by the federal government at a higher rate.

There are multitudes of stories about inaccurate results of tests. Again is there a financial incentive to have more positive cases and thereby create a demand for more testing. 

The problem is that much to do with this virus is now complicated by political considerations.

Trumps early touting the use of Hydroxychloroquine, which costs by the way $23 for 60 200 mg tablets, has been demonized by the media even though it is still used by many healthcare professionals and they claim that if started early in the onset of this disease limits the progression of the virus.

At the same time Remdesivir, which costs $3120. for a 5 day treatment, and has similar results has been touted as acceptable.

We can expect this virus to be an issue for the foreseeable future, but I expect the daily deaths, charts and doomsday predictions will subside after the November election.