Ukraine offensive in Kursk expands.

 IS KURSK OFFENSIVE UKRAINES BATTLE OF THE BULGE

GAINS WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUTCOME

Ukraines 's offensive incursion into Russia has expanded and reached the limits of its ability to provide artillery cover. If they can move their artillery forward they may be able to increase their position, but it is inevitable that this will only be a temporary victory.

This incursion targeted the lightly fortifies northern Ukraine border and was with the use of its best troops. They were able to make sizable advances, this was aided by the lack of roads and the crowded highways that resulted from Russian civilians fleeing the area.

As time goes on and Russia is able to mobilize forces their progress will end and they will inevitably be forced to withdraw. 

While it is a psychological victory and may sow some discord in Russia it will not have any long lasting effect on the outcome of this conflict. 

More calls in Russia to increase the hostilities and seek to end this conflict as soon as possible.

In the east the Russians are making daily gains sometimes at an accelerating rate  as Ukraine is losing an estimated 2000 troops a day and conscription is unable to replace its lost soldiers. While Ukraine valiantly fights on, it is only a matter of time until this conflict will no longer be sustainable.

Are VP picks all about job security?

 NEVER PICK A VP MORE DESIRABLE THAN YOURSELF

ESPECIALLY BETTER FOR THE PARTY OR DEEP STATE 

Many now believe that Kamala Harris, or her handlers, picked Tim Walz over Josh Shapiro because of the Muslim vote over the Jewish vote. There was a time when VP picks were about capturing the electoral votes of particular state or adding a degree of competency in some area. It seems in today's volatile and chaotic times security is now the defining ingredient in picks of a Vice-President. 

One can assume that Trump, after just experiencing an attempt on his life, may have chosen J.D. Vance as the lesser choice of the bureaucracy and elite power brokers and may diminish future attempt on his life. Would Nikki Haley as Vice President made Trump's position more secure? If Trump would have succumbed to this attempt on his life, Who do you believe would have been the presidential candidate after convention?

Kamala Harris, and her handlers may have judged that Josh Shapiro would be more electable than her and her future could be aborted by any number of actions, particularly at the convention.

I can assume that many will consider this a cynical and conspiracy theory type of consideration, but I do not doubt that these calculations are now part of the decision making by Presidential candidates.

Bidens pick of Kamala Harris is a good example. Trump's pick of Pence is another. 

We can also even consider the ramifications of Ronald Reagan's pick of George Bush, former CIA director and first choice of the elite power brokers in 1980. An attempted assassination ensued within a very short time, maybe a coincidence.

The choice of a running mate is becoming a much more complicated decision in this new environment.

Do Democrats really want to talk about WEIRD?

 NOT HARD TO DETERMINE WHO IS THE WEIRDEST OF THEM ALL

DEMOCRATS ARE OVERRUN WITH WEIRDOS

The latest talking point on mainstream media is for Democrats to refer to Republicans as Weird. This is a very strange choice for a party that seems to be obsessed with making weirdos mainstream in their party.

How about Rachel Levine. Formerly Richard Levine, now Secretary of Health in the Democrat Biden/Harris administration. An admiral in the U.S. Navy, who may have never been on a ship and it seems main claim to fame is poster boy or girl for the Trans cult. Weird

How about Sam Brinton, a Democrat appointment as the Assistant Secretary for spent fuel and waste disposal in the Biden/Harris administration. Was forced to resign after being charged with luggage thefts in airports on 3 occasions. Would you consider all this, Very Weird.

How about the much celebrated Pete Buttigieg, who shortly after being named Secretary of Transportation by Biden/Harris, took a 2 month maternity/paternity leave that created lots of chaos in the transportation department. Just a little weird.

How about Janet Yellin, secretary of treasury in the Biden/Harris administration. Infamous for partaking of psychedelic mushrooms while on official business in China. Publicly stated that Deficit spending is not related or the cause of inflation. Her speeches often raise the issue of drug testing for government employees. More Weird.

Then of course there is the current vice president and current democrat candidate for president, Kamala Harris. A San Francisco attorney and former California attorney general, a protégé of San Francisco's power broker Willie Brown and noted for her speeches that again call for drug testing of politicians. Her latest that she seems to repeat at every appearance has many stumped, "I can imagine what will be, unburdened by what was"  She is very weird for a prospective president.

So, much of this started concerning remarks by J.D.Vance and about family, having children and the benefits to individuals and society. Now considered weird by much of the democrat party. Obviously weird is now in the eye of the beholder, but does showcase the gulf between the political parties in this country.

War imminent in middle east.

 PREPARATIONS FOR WAR UNDERWAY

U.S. GENERAL IN TEL AVIV, RUSSIANS IN TEHRAN

The onset of a major war in the middle east is expected at anytime, but there may some last minute negotiations to cancel this war, we can expect some development within hours.

This weekend, most countries have evacuated their citizens from Lebanon. At the same time the Russian defense minister is in Tehran and it is reported that an air lift of materials is being delivered to Iran from Russia. It is speculated that this is mostly electronic countermeasures defensive materials, but no one knows for sure. It could be sophisticated anti-ship missiles.

U.S. bases in Iraq have been attacked with injuries.

A U.S. general is in Tel Aviv to coordinate U.S. assistance if this war breaks out. 

So far, major hostilities have not broken out and there are reports that the U.S. has offered to lift some sanctions against Iran, if it declines to respond to Israel's attack on Iran last week. This will be meaningless unless some sort of restraint can be leveraged against Israel, not to attack Lebanon.

A major war in the middle east will without a doubt cause a worldwide economic crisis and the possibility of nuclear weapons being used, if Israel's existence is in doubt in such a war. It is without a doubt the most dangerous situation since 1972. 

There may be hope, because the major countries in the region do not want a war. That includes Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Possibly being on the precipice of a destructive war will be enough incentive for real negotiations with a real settlement of this crisis. It may indeed be a last chance for all involved.

Time for real political debates, not media productions.

 DEBATES SHOULD BE MANDATORY

JUST THE CANDIDATES, NO MEDIA PERSONALITIES

We are again in the election season where debates have became a media event, dominated by media personalities and shifting rules and agendas.  It is time to eliminate all the nonsense and go back to real debates, a debate between the two candidates, where they develop and ask the questions of each other. 

They could agree on rules that would decide which policies to debate, the time for answers and responses and a moderator that could enforce these rules. Very simple, not subject to biased abuse or the risk of someone leaking the questions beforehand.

This would be a valuable tool for the electorate to actually see the candidates in a real life situation, not rehearsed or compromised by media personalities who believe they should be the star of this process. All media should be invited to cover the event, from a distance, without spectators or a audience to distract from the debate. 

This actually should be a series of debates with actual policies discussed and debated. The real things that will affect all the citizens when one of these people are elected. In fact, they should become mandatory, to be clear about one's policies and their vision for the future. Let's skip all the nonsense and meaningless slogans and have real debates.

U.S. fleet to Mideast, Russian advances accelerate.

 CAN EXPANDED WAR BE AVOIDED?

IS THE WORLD DESTINED TO SELF DESTRUCT?

The U.S. announced that 12 ships are being deployed to the middle east, most likely to the Mediterranean sea. It is likely that major action will follow, shortly after they are in position. At the same time Russia is advancing at an accelerated rate every day. Ukraine may not be able to slow this advance and will require some sort of collective action by NATO to save Ukraine. 

Israel's attacks on Lebanon and Iran can be expected to be followed by some response from Iran. It may very well be limited to an attack on a single person similar to Israel's attacks on the heads of Hezbollah and Hamas. It is doubtful that Iran will initiate an all out attack on Israel at this time.

The escalation of the war in Ukraine is going to have repercussions in the middle east. Russia has warned the U.S. that long range missiles and F-16's will be countered by supplying weapons to those now in conflict with the U.S. It is very likely that anti-ship weapons will become available to the Houthes and may also end up in the arsenals of other mideast actors. U.S. ships are going to be a major target of any increased hostilities in the region.

While the major countries of the middle east have been avoiding all out war, it now seems unless some serious change of direction, there will be a regional war that may very well spring out of the control of everyone. 

The tit for tat policies of the region have kept the region on simmer for a long time, It seems any diplomacy to cool this off is lacking with no resolution to this long standing crisis. A major war in this region will be hard to extinguish, and it will have world wide repercussion in the economies of the world.

Israel will not insure its security through war.

 ESCALATION MAY SOON BECOME IRREVERSIBLE

KILLING ALL OPPOSITION IS NOT SOLUTION 

The Israeli, Palestinian issue has now reached a critical point that may end either in regional war, world war 3 or the end of Israel. Israel cannot solve this issue by war, by retaliation, or the hope to kill all its enemies. We have seen regime change wars in Iraq, and Syria that have not reduced Israel's threats. some believe that regime change in Iran will solve this issue or eliminating Hezbollah in Lebanon will provide more security.

There as yet has not been a serious effort to solve the dilemma of the west bank and Gaza with a population that is near equal to that of Israel. It is no secret that many in Israel hope to make Israel's borders those of the old testament times. This cannot happen under the present conditions. 

The world community has been pushing a two state solution, which most likely now can never happen, after the last years death and destruction, the divide between these people is deeper than ever.

There is indeed no easy answer to this question, but war with even the back up of the United States will not solve this issue. I suspect that Netanyahu's visit to the United States was to gain assurance from the United States that it would receive back-up of the United States in an all out war with Hezbollah and possibly Iran. An Israeli war with Hezbollah is not an a sure thing for Israel, a war with Iran could possibly end Israel as a functional state.

Then there is the trash talk by Israeli officials threatening Erdogan of Turkey with regime change threats. Telling Erdogan that he may receive the same fate as Saddam Hussein, which very much insinuates that Israel can persuade the United States to accomplish this task. as Israel does not have this capability.  Many of the leaders in the region are under enormous pressure by their citizens to intervene in the Gaza, they hope to keep that under control and Israeli threats may make that increasingly impossible. 

The answer to this problem is a solution, not war, and so far we never hear proposals for a solution. One would be to bypass the prevailing governments of Hamas and the Palestinian authority and deal directly with the present population to buy their real estate, even at a premium price, that would be far less costly than war and would give these people an option to leave the region. At present these people have not option but to live in constant fear washout any hope of a different life. I suspect that most would take any option that would get them out of the present situation.