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Monday, January 6, 2020

Media coordinates talking points on Soliemani

DEMS AND EX-OBAMA ADMINISTRATION QUESTION TRUMP'S MOTIVES 

NO REGARD FOR COUNTRY OR UNITY


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It took a couple of days for the media and the Democrats to coordinate their talking points on the killing of Qassem Soleimani. They have now settled on the  withdrawal from the 2015 Nuclear treaty as the beginning of trouble with Iran. Trump has no plan for the consequences of this attack and he has not revealed the intelligence behind the attack. Also that he did not believe the intelligence on other issues, so why would he believe them now. James Clapper, former National Intelligence director, made the idiotic remark this morning that Soleimani never placed bombs or personally took American lives, he only orchestrated and planned the attacks. 

First the problems with Iran began 40 years ago with the founding with the Islamic republic of Iran. You could go back even further to 1948 with the birth of the nation of Israel. After fighting 3 wars over Israel, Egypt became the first to recognize the existence of Israel in 1979. This broke up the military alliance that had the power to eliminate Israel. Jordan recognized Israel in 1994.

Since the Egypt peace treaty there has not been an outright war with Israel. Iraq under Saddam Hussein, Syria and Iran have been threatening Israel for the last 40 years. The United Kingdom and then the United States has been the biggest defender of Israels right to exist. If not for this support Israel would have been overrun many years ago. Now Israel is assumed to have enough nuclear weapons to defend itself from any attempt to eliminate its existence. Iraq is no longer a threat to Israel nor is Syria at the present time. Iran is the only remaining threat. It has pledged that if it acquires nuclear weapons it's first target is Israel and then the United States.

The 2015 Nuclear deal removed sanctions against Iran's economy in exchange for a partial moratorium of Iran's nuclear program. It would after 10 years, 2025, allow Iran to expand its nuclear program. When this deal was made Iran also received 150 billion dollars in funds held by the U.S.. Iran then expanded its activities in Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Africa. It also engaged in disruptive activities in Saudi Arabia and other gulf countries. The Trump administration withdrew form the deal in 2018, restored sanctions against Iran and increased pressure on Iran to renegotiate a nuclear deal with no path to nuclear weapons. Iran has continued to pledge to destroy Israel and the United States during the existence of the deal and after.

With economic pressure increasing on Iran, it has acted out by attacking oil tankers, destroying refineries in Saudi Arabia, shooting down a U.S. drone and supplying rockets to Yemen and Gaza to be used against Saudi Arabia and Israel.

They have also increased their influence in Iraq through the Iranian backed Shia militias in the country. Iraq is in a perilous situation as half the country is Sunni and half Shia. There have been increased demonstrations both for and against Iranian influence in the country. They could very likely be on the verge of a civil war. They would very much like to be free from all foreign influence, but that is very unlikely. If the U.S. disengages from Iraq they will become a vassal of Iran.

This present escalation began with an attack on an American base followed by a response by the U.S. on the perpetrators, then the attack on the U.S embassy in Baghdad. This was followed by the killing of Soleimani and 9 other military leaders by the Trump administration. Soliemani was in command of all of Iran's covert and proxy warfare.

This attack took out only military people engaged in a covert war on the U.S.

Iran has now promised retaliation against the U.S. and Trump has responded by declaring the U.S. will respond in kind. Iran has engaged in these activities by funding and supplying others to engage in these acts, always denying that they are responsible. Iran is now in a difficult spot, if they respond they will be the likely loser of the exchange. They cannot win a war with the U.S. The U.S. has the power and the technology to destroy the economy of Iran without ever setting foot on Iranian territory. It appears we are now at a climax of this decades old low level conflict.

Americans now need unity, not jockeying for political opportunity. The possibility of a positive outcome for the middle east and the world depend on it.

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