Political power shift to West and South continues in 2020.

NONCOMPETITIVE FISCAL AND REGULATORY POLICY DRAINS NORTHEAST POWER

 SLOW SHIFT MAY TURN TO FREE FALL IF NOT ADDRESSED

The 2020 Census will soon be underway, while the results are not yet in, it appears that the trends of the last 40 years will continue with some added shifts.

The latest numbers project that Texas will gain 2 seats, while Arizona, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina and Oregon will gain one each.

Illinois,Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, West Virginia and California will lose 1 each. It will be California's first loss since 1850.

The population of the U.S. grew by .5% last year, the slowest growth in a century.

All these figures may change slightly when the actual census is tabulated

10 states lost population last year, Alaska, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, New York, Vermont and West Virginia.  Most of this can be attributed to the high cost of living, high taxes, high legacy costs of government workers, and lack of opportunity. Some states it is just a lack of opportunity.

This begins with the south and western states aggressive policies to attract new business to their state. They have less regulation, lower taxes and an all together friendly and welcoming environment. Lower housing costs are quite noticeable in many of these states. Much less union membership, both in the private and public sector. In many the overall quality of life is better. It seems that these states are also attracting many young middle class families and also many retirees. Such a drain of population will likely result in a similar fate that has been experienced by many large cities. It may result in a poorer and older population that will be in need of a large amount of government support.

The biggest losers from 1980 to 2010 are: Illinois -4,  Michigan -4, New Jersey -2, New York, -7, Ohio -5, Pennsylvania -5, 

The biggest gainers from 1980 to 2010 are: Arizona +4,  California +8, Florida +8, Georgia + 4, and Texas +9. 

While again this only an estimate, it is a trend that has been ongoing for 40 years and may actually accelerate in the future. The new tax laws and less regulation has made the United States more attractive to business. Most of the business expansion has been focused in those states with the best business environment and the population will follow.

The Northeast and other high tax and regulation states are losing in the competition for new business. They are ham-stringed with legacy costs and regulation that is often supported by entrenched bureaucracies and special interests. The window on their opportunity to reverse this trend my be closing rapidly.