Is Kiev a distraction from the real fighting.

 WHILE FOCUS IS ON KIEV, PARTITION OF UKRAINE ADVANCES

IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE PLAN IS TO TAKE ALL OF UKRAINE

While there has been a lot of speculation about a column of trucks and equipment north of Kiev, it is not likely that there will be a war for the capital. Not a war in the usual sense, but eventually it will probably be more like a medieval siege, where the electric, gas, water and communications are cut off and the city will be waited out.

In the meantime the war in the south and east is moving forward, slowly, but it is entering a stage were some of these targets will be falling. Again, it is unlikely that there is a plan to control the whole country or even to overthrow the existing government. It will likely end with a partition of Ukraine into two Ukraines. 

If you look at the map and look at the Dnieper river it may be the future dividing line, everything east of the Dnieper will be Eastern Ukraine. In the south it will then extend west to near Odessa, it may or may not include Odessa. The southern part is mostly already under control. The distance from the eastern border to the Dnieper is not all that far once those cities presently under siege surrender.

As far as Kiev, it is not clear that it will be part of the East or West, but will be encircled and cut off, at least until a negotiated settlement is reached. 

While many hope that Ukraine will win this war, it is pivotal for Russia to not let that happen. In their mind they must win no matter the cost to lives and property. This is really a proxy war between Russia and the United States.  Ukraine is just the battlefield. The Ukrainian people are just so much collateral damage.

This is just part of a showdown that has been under way since 2008, when the U.S. planned NATO expansion to the borders of Russia. While Russia has been severely damaged economically the damage to the world economy is not yet known. Russia has not yet used some the resources at its disposal nor cut off gas to western Ukraine and Europe. 

You can bet there is more communication between Washington and Moscow than is made public. It is probably clear that any expansion of this war will not be taken out on Warsaw, Berlin or Paris. The real  expansion will probably be the coastal cities of the USA. While to Americans this may seem far fetched,  we are really in WW3 now. It is presently all out economic and political war, it is not a huge leap to an all out hot war.

It is time for real diplomats to be considering the consequences of the direction of this conflict, rather than stoking the emotional necessity for all out war.