2024 problems now move to 2025

 WILL 2025 BE THE YEAR OF CONCLUSIONS?

CAN THE PRESENT CHAOS BE SUSTAINED FOR ANOTHER YEAR?

2025 is a big number, especially when you have witnessed 79 much smaller numbers. I suspect that many will agree the world has become much more chaotic and unpredictable. Maybe 2025 will witness some resolutions or conclusions to problems underway. 

The Ukraine fiasco appears to be on its way to some sort of conclusion, maybe not from some actual willingness of the combatants, but by the exhaustion of the whole affair. The Ukrainians are running out of manpower, NATO is running out of equipment and wherewithal and the Russians want to move on to other long range endeavours.  The time is soon ripe for a settlement, but it must be a permanent sustainable settlement, not a band aid to be ripped off later. It will require humility and real objective diplomacy, maybe necessity will make that happen.

Things are dire in the middle east, but again there are signs of exhaustion, which may lead to some sort of resolution, but I doubt that any of it will be concluded in 2025, it is too deep, too severe, too much hate and animosity, very little good will.

The other pressing question is the emergence of the multipolar world that wants to break free from control of the existing order. Again, that existing order has been powered by unlimited amounts of dollar creation that has fueled this quest for global control. It is also exhausted, whether apparent as yet or not, it is unsustainable.  The question is, can the transition to a multipolar world be accomplished peacefully, with mutual respect and co-existanstance or must it be settled in the age old fashion of mutual destruction. I doubt if this transition will be completely accomplished in 2025. 

As always, we must hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. There are some signs of hope, at present that is all we have, a hope for a better year.

Zelensky uses gas as weapon on neighbors.

 DESPERATION WILL CAUSE SERIOUS CONSEQUENCES

IF BRIBES DONT WORK, CUT OFF GAS

Ukraine hosts gas pipelines that feed gas to Ukraine, Moldova, Hungary, Transistia, Slovakia and Romania. This gas originates in Russia and Ukraine earns around $1 billion in compensation. This has been upheld by all during this conflict, but the contract expires at the end of 2024. Russia is willing to renew the contract with the same terms as before, but Ukraine is indicating that it will end this transfer of gas to its neighbors, who Zelensky claims is an ally of Russia. He is most concerned with Hungary and Slovakia who want an end to this war and are not willing to sacrifice the economic future of their countries by giving material support to Ukraine. They would like to stay out of this war and want it to end believing that the end is inevitable and it is time to end the death and destruction.

Ukraine is now set up to get LNG gas from the United States, probably at no cost. This will possibly satisfy Ukraines needs but will place these other countries in a dangerous position in the middle of winter.

It is reported that Zelensky offered the Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, who survived an assassination attempt earlier in the year being shot by 5 bullets by an EU?NATO supporter, a $500 million bribe to agree to support Ukraine. Robert Fico refused and was then labeled a Putin apologist by Zelensky. We can assume that this is U.S. money and likely offered with the approval of the U.S.. 

Now both Fico and Orban of Hungary are letting it be known that if Zelensky cuts of this gas, they will no longer be able to supply Ukraine with electricity. Zelensky is outraged and is asking the EU to intervene on Ukraines behalf to force them to supply electricity to Ukraine.

While the end of this gas will mostly effect the above countries, it will also be a factor to the rest of Europe which is already struggling as the result of the energy and other sanctions on Russia. Will the cutoff of gas damage Russia more than the rest of Europe, a very questionable result?

Anyway, they now have one day to make a new contract or we can expect a lot of controversy in the EU?NATO coalition.

Israel debates attacking Iran.

 MOSSAD SAYS DO IT NOW, IDF NOT SO SURE

WILL US POLITICS PLAY IN THE TIMING

Its no secret that Israel has been talking about a major attack on Iran for some time. Some in the government along with their allies in the US have been itching to attack Iran for years. Several US presidents have nixed the idea, but it seems its on the agenda to be accomplished before the end of the Biden administration.

Such an attack will not be undertaken without the US cooperation, as it could turn out to be a bad gamble if Israel went it alone, in fact it may be bad gamble no matter what. Iran is not the Iran of 1980 and it has formidable air defenses and also lots of offensive capability that can reach Israel. It could possibly devastate Israel even without nuclear weapons.

Usually the premise is that Iran needs to be attacked before they can acquire nuclear weapons. This is an old narrative, that if thought about, is weak, Iran is a well educated and modern nation, if they wanted nuclear weapons they could have had them long ago. There is a debate in Iran between the more religious elements that do not want them and others who feel it is the only hope for their survival.

The other argument is that they are the power behind all the resistance to Israel. It is true that they have supported Hezbollah, but Hamas not so much. It is unlikely that any attack will dissolve Iran as a nation and there are lots of places to take up the resistance to Israel.

Then there are the risks of an attack, so far, Iran has been restrained in its counter attacks on Israel, they have made it clear that they do not want all out regional war. In Israel's last attempt to attack Iran, it is reported that many of their fighters turned back due to electronic countermeasures and Iran's air defenses were very effective.

The Mossad is counseling to attack Iran now while they are perceived to be weak after a setback in Syria, but the IDF believes it can not guarantee success in an attack or the ability to defend against an all out counter attack.

We can expect that Netanyahu will go for it, but may time such an attack to put the next US president in the hot seat on his first day in office.

Turkey masses troops, U.S. sends troops to Syria.

 TURKEY TO BE KEY TO CONTROL OF SYRIA

KURDS TO BE FORCED TO BE UNDER CONTROL OF NEW GOVERNMENT

In recent days the Turkish government and the leaders of the new Syrian government have agreed that that all weapons and military factions will be under the control of the Syrian government. This will include the U.S. backed Kurdish factions that control northeast Syria. This will likely create a conflict with the United States because it will need to decide if it will cooperate in the disarmament of the Kurdish forces. It will also bring into question the U.S. troops that also occupy parts of Syria.

Turkey is reportedly massing troops on its southern border possibly to cooperate with the new Syrian government to force the disarmament of the Kurdish forces. At the same time the U.S. has increased its forces to over 2000 in Syria.

The U.S. has also removed the bounty on the leader of the new Syrian government who was formerly labeled a terrorist.

Israel is reported to actually building settlements in its newly acquired buffer zone in southern Syria.

We can expect to see U.N. action on requests for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria, since they were never there by invitation of the Syrian government. They are controlling the oil wealth of the Syrian government. We can also expect to see U.N. action on Israeli occupation of Syria.

While these resolutions may not be followed, it will be another diplomatic hit on the legality of U.S. and Israeli actions.

Turkey is in the power position in Syria, they can offer the new Syrian government support, economically, politically and militarily. This will also enhance Turkey's hopes of restoration of the former Ottoman empire. While many may believe this is far fetched, the reality is that the Turkish government has been setting the stage through it entertainment and other historical narratives to bring about this hope in the minds of Turkish citizens. 

So, while the end of 2024 saw the end of the Assad regime, 2025 will usher in the beginning of the new period in Syrian history. 

Congress runs the country like a hardcore addict.

 CONTINUAL RESOLUTION IS AT A $2 TRILLION YEARLY DEFICIT RATE

NO BUDGET AND CONTINUE TO ADD MORE SPENDING

We have all winessed the behaviour of hard-core drug addicts who run their family and their finances into the ground and end up on the street. Congress seems to have the same kind of addiction to spending and more spending. There is no budget that balances income with revenue, it is just a wide open spending bill and they all have their favorite little piece. The problem is they will not end up on the street, but many responsible citizens will.

These endless continuing resolutions just keep the debt growing and fixes the deficit for that period. It is time that congress takes responsibility and overhauls the budget, make it all public and they need to understand what they are voting on. Who actually writes these so called budgets, or I should say spending bills, as a budget is supposed to balance income and expenses? 

All foreign aid should be suspended until there is a surplus in the budget. All grants for research should be eliminated until they show a surplus. Then every dime should be scrutinized to see if it is vital for the nations good. It is way past time to get the nations financial house in order. 

The Defense department needs a thorough audit as does many other big spending departments. Does anyone doubt that there is $100s of billions of waste and fraud.

While we will hear all kinds of excuses why this is not the time, due to national security or some other pressing matter. The reality is the debt and deficits are the greatest threats to the future of this country. Only a country on a sound financial footing can have the resources to be a great country.

Trump can start reorganization without confirmed positions.

 THE PRESIDENT HAS THE POWER TO MAKE DECISIONS WHILE POSITIONS ARE VACANT

TRUMP LIKES TO KEEP BUSY

It is expected that many will attempt to slow walk Trump's appointments. While that may be an attempt to slow down his agenda, it by no means needs to be a major obstacle in beginning reform or implementing his agenda. 

The President has the authority to name an interim head of every department, and I suspect other key people in a department, they usually just require that they are a former head or have worked in that department. While the qualifications are vague, objections will need to go through a legal process which may take far longer than the confirmation process.

The other option is that Trump can personally start making decisions for certain departments, he does not need to be confirmed, that happened last November. He can also use a lot of assistants and interns to observe actions in these departments and report directly to the President. The President can then take actions on those who are not implementing his directives. The President can show up at these offices with his staff and begin making decisions anytime after Jan. 20. 

As for the state department and other foreign policy appointments, Trump can use the time zone differences to work through the night, personally talking and negotiating with foreign leaders. It is well know that Trump sleeps very little and we can expect he will be anxious to fit as much as possible into his 4 years.

He would be wise to use the bully pulpit to be as transparent as possible with his activities and progress, maybe a weekly address or a bi-weekly press conference. He can then blunt the spin and narrative that will likely be used to cast a negative light on his methods.

One more month and it will all begin.

Will terrorism and assassination rise in 2025?

 USING ASSASSINATION'S AS A NATIONAL POLICY

WE CAN EXPECT A SIMILAR RESPONSE

In the last months we have seen the assassination of both political and military leaders in Russia, Iran and Lebanon. We have also seen terrorist acts in Russia at a nightclub and the blowing up of electronic devices in Lebanon.  It seems the attitude is that such acts are the results and just rewards of bad policies of the victims. We have also saw the assassination of the daughter of Alexander Dugin, a philosopher in Russia. Both this assassination and the nightclub are connected to the government of Ukraine as is the recent scooter bomb that killed a Russian general in Moscow. Israel admitted to assassinations of political leaders in Tehran and Lebanon. They also as much as admitted they placed explosive devices that wounded not only members of Hezbollah, but many innocent bystanders, a terrorist act by anyone's definition.

While many herald these acts as a policy of war, I do not recall any such acts during WW2, were it became the policy of either side of the conflict. While there may have been some instances it was not the open policy of any government.

In Israel with the neutralization of Syria and other setbacks by the so called resistance, it is very likely that such acts will now become more common in Israel. What will be the response be if some prominent political leader is targeted? 

In Ukraine, Russia has not attacked the government buildings in Kiev nor has it targeted political leaders, does anyone doubt that they have the capacity for such acts?

We have also seen assassination attempts against leaders in Europe who opposed NATO expansion, like the president of Slovakia, and threats against Viktor Orban. Does anyone believe that the leaders of the UK or France are perfectly immune from similar attacks.

We would hope this trend is denounced and ended before it becomes the new plaque in international relations in 2025.

German government out, Canada next.

 NO CONFIDENCE EVERYWHERE

U.S. POLICY HAS CREATED CHAOS EVERYWHERE

The government changed in the UK and the present leader has a 28% approval rating. The parliament changed in France and Macron is likely to be replaced in the next election. The parliament changed in Georgia and a new president was sworn in in the last few days. The German government received a no confidence vote yesterday and Schotz will be out in February's new election. In Romania the opposition won the first round and the court ruled the election void because the winner was too active on social media. Yesterday the government in Canada took a large hit and a no confidence vote is expected, possibly in days.

While many will believe the narrative that the unrest is the fault of Russian interference or a populist movement, the reality is that the foreign policy of these United States has been a direct cause of much of the chaos in the western world.

The middle east wars that started in 1991 have produced the greatest migration since WW2. European countries have been flooded with refugees from the middle east and northern Africa. Most gravitate to the countries with the best social benefits which has created a drain on social resources, jobs and cultural upheaval. It has also created division in the vision for the future of these countries.

Then the insistence on NATO expansion into Ukraine and Georgia brought about military conflict in eastern Europe and all had to sign on to defeat Russia even at the cost of their economic freedom and prosperity. The combination of unlimited immigration and now economic collapse is pushing the political and social structure of these countries to their limit. The real chaos is just beginning.

With the wind down of the Ukraine conflict coming and a loss by NATO and all those who sacrificed so much, it will then be left with the shambles that have resulted. This coupled with the resistance of the ruling elite to give up power by extralegal methods, like cancelling and avoiding elections that they disagree with will only cause more unrest.

The real cure, is to listen to the will of the people, something that seems to be a rare policy in today's world. The ruling elite believe that they are smarter and know better, especially since many are insulted from the results of their poor decisions. If they believe that they can hold on by force and violence it will indeed be a bleak future.

 

North Korea get on the job training in Kursk.

 REPORTS THAT KOREANS ARE NOW ACTIVE IN KURSK

RECEIVING COMBAT EXPERIENCE

It is now verified by both Russia and North Korea that Korean troops are now actively participating in the Kursk region of Russia. It seems that they are operating independently of Russia forces.

North Korea claims that they have taken their first village claiming 300 Ukrainian lives and no prisoners. Ukraine claims that they have inflicted heavy casualties on the Koreans. Is doubtful that either claims are reliable, but it seems that their presence in the region is now verified.

It is unlikely that they are incorporated into Russian units, because of the language barriers but are most likely given tasks that allow them to operate with Korean leadership in an independent fashion. It would be suspected they would receive Russian logistics and air support.

North Koreans are often in Russia for training and this may be an opportunity for their elite units to gain combat experience. The west claims the Koreans are there because the  Russia are short of troops, but no objective analyst has come to that conclusion, the Russia army seems to be well manned and has several hundred thousand troops in reserve and are continually rotating troops in and out. 

Many of the Ukrainian troops have been in continuous combat for near 3 years. Most observers do not believe that Korean troops will be used on Ukraine territory, but only time will tell if that is true.

The dollar is the U.S. biggest weapon.

 THE ABILITY TO CREATE UNLIMITED MONEY IS COMING TO AN END

THE FATE OF ALL EMPIRES

While we are told that Russia, China and Iran are the biggest threats to the United States, it is the irresponsibility of the leadership that is likely to spell the doom of the U.S. as the master of the world. The ability to create massive amounts of buying power from thin air is coming to an end. Not by the machinations of our enemies or competitors, but by the natural consequences of the out of control policies of the Government.

The $36 Trillion in debt and the inflation that we experience is just the beginning of what is likely to happen in the near future. All those dollars that have been printed and flooded into the world economies are coming home, and possibly in a torrent. Many of the central banks are selling their U.S. debt and using the proceeds to buy gold. This puts more dollars into the system that will be working their way back home, particularly with escalation of trade war and sanctions on dozens of countries.

It is no secret that U.S. is financing most all military actions around the world, from Ukraine, the middle east, subsidizing NATO, buying friends all across the Pacific and quiet actions in Georgia, Romania, Moldova, Pakistan, India and in Africa and many more. One must wonder if all these dollars are in fact actually appropriated or just printed, bundled and shipped around the world. They eventually will be coming home and will lead to massive inflation. 

It is now generally understood that the debt is the highest in world history and is in fact unpayable. It is being recognized by more and more of those holding this debt. The interest is now approaching $1 Trillion a year and as it is rolled over at higher rates, it will become much more. Only drastic and unprecedented action can remedy this, actions that will likely make everyone in the U.S. a lot poorer.

It has been the fate of all empires that they succumb to over reach and over extending their ability to sustain their attempts to control their empire. We see that Spain and Great Britain still exist, but are only a shadow of their former glory. Everyone has ended in a similar fate. The United States, bordered with two oceans and natural resources could manage the coming storm, but it will need to face the reality than ruling the world always ends badly.

Ukraine conflict will be settled on the battlefield.

 NO FREEZE, NO CEASEFIRE, NO HONEST BROKERS

ONLY LASTING RESULT WILL DO

We hear talk of ceasefires for Christmas, frozen conflicts with peacekeepers, land for NATO and other arrangements, all in the hope to regroup and fight another day.  This war will only end when there is no longer any will to fight by one side or the other. A similar end that would compare to the end of WW2, unconditional surrender. 

Russia is on its way to bringing about that reality and the west will need to decide, and soon, if it is willing to send in NATO troops, or do a preemptive nuclear attack on Russia. You can bet those discussions are actually going on in Washington and NATO. Of course the citizens of Europe or the U.S. will have no say in the matter, it is their responsibility to just pay up and maybe die.

The opportunity to avoid this catastrophe was before it happened and then very early in the conflict, that time has passed. There are now 100's of thousands of dead and many billions of wealth destroyed, it is too late for some face saving solution for the west. The western players have lied and reneged on every possible deal and it has no credibility to stand by any agreement.

Money is still being sent to Ukraine today and more on the way, the only thing it will do is keep the government in Kiev from collapsing and providing a golden parachute when it all goes down, or maybe more tanks, F16's long range missiles or nuclear weapons will save the day.

The reality is that Russia is moving steadily west, every day, they are slowly and methodically overcoming all the reinforcements built in the last 10 years and are now at the gates of Pokrovsk which seems to be the center of Ukraines defense. It is assumed that battle will commence within a week and when it falls, Ukraine's defense will be severed and it will become near impossible to continue. While they may be able to fight on for months, it will only end one way, without intervention with troops or very escalated firepower. 

It may be one of Trump's very first major decisions after the inauguration. No matter the decision, he will be blamed for the ensuing result.

Syria being divvied up?

 WILL ISRAEL/TURKEY BECOME THE NEW CONFLICT?

NO REAL FRIENDS, JUST HOPING TO EXPAND

It seems that Turkey and Israel cooperated in the replacing of the Assad government. At present, the new government is disorganized and has not consolidated and actually exerted political power. It seems both Israel and Turkey now believe it is their time to take as much of Syria as they can. Turkey is moving across northern Syria and it is expected that they may attempt to drive the Kurds out of eastern Syria. Israel has taken more of the Golan heights and is now only 15 miles from Damascus. 

Israel may be in process of overreaching and bringing forces in the region out against them. An occupation of Israel of Damascus would be a red flag in the Muslim world. At present recent events have been in Israel's favor but it can change very quickly. While Turkey has cooperated, it is no friend to Israel and if Israel goes too far it will come into direct conflict with Turkey, which Erdogan could use to bolster his standing in the region. 

At present this may be a period of calm until a much greater storm as the new government consolidates and friendly assets move into the country. The political and diplomatic moves will be critical is determining the direction in this volatile region. If only raw power is the policy it will be eventually be returned in kind. While Israel is feeling invincible at the moment, it is only invincible with unlimited backup by the U.S., a backup that one day maybe limited due to economic and political developments in other parts of the world. 

True peace and security cannot be maintained with only raw power, the saying that "he who lives by the sword will die by the sword" can eventually apply to any nation.

Complications just beginning in Syria.

 WILL ISRAEL OVERREACH?

PRESSURE FOR U.S. TROOPS WILL GROW

Just days after the end of Assad regime Israel is advancing toward Damascus destroying any military assets that it can find. Some have already suggested that the rapid fall of Syria is suspicious and Israel is vulnerable to overextending itself into Syria and being the victim of a trap. The Israeli army is tired and overstretched, with problems of morale and a growing political division in the country. Prudence would be a better virtue than unrestrained adventure into Syria.

It is reported that Turkey supplied the training and logistics and the U.S. supplied the money, paying the jihadists around $2000. a month compared to $30 for Syrian army members. Will the money continue to flow as the jihadist army grows with all the Syrian prisons emptied, an influx of volunteers from the muslim world and the possibility of the Kurds opening the prisons with 50,000 ISIS prisoners? It is possible that the jihadists could grow to a 150,000 army in months. If the money ceases so will the control of these new Democrats.

The U.S. is already considering sanctions on Turkey if it continues to take control of northern Syria which it is in the process of doing. They are also concerned that Turkey will attempt to annihilate the U.S. supported Kurds in eastern Syria that now believe it is time for them to have a homeland in region.

Russia and Iran came in to support the Assad regime after 4 years of the regime change operation in an attempt to stabilise the region, with of course their own agendas, they no longer have a dog in this fight, and it appears they will let the local players have their day. 

It is no secret that Netanyahu still wants a U.S. backed war with Iran. It is the last on his decades old list of enemies that he considers must be eliminated for the expansion of and safety of Israel. This coupled with the deep state actors in Washington who would like to tie up Trump in foreign wars so that they would be safe from domestic reform. A trapped and desperate situation for the Israeli army would be just one of those situations.

It is way too soon to anticipate where all this will end, it would be a bad bet to anticipate any good outcome.

Syria; A tangled web of conflicting self interest.

 EUPHORIA ON ASSAD'S DEPARTURE MAY END IN DESPERATION

IS AL QAEDA BETTER THAN ASSAD?

In a short, dramatic turn of events, the Assad regime in Syria has been overthrown. The desire of the west that began in 2011 has finally been realized, we will have to wait and see if this is a positive development or just the beginning of more chaos and instability in the region. 

It seems that the former ISIS group that was preserved by the U.S. and its allies in the Idlib province is now the new rulers of Syria. At the end of the ISIS conflict Russia, Turkey and Syria wanted to finish off the remaining members of the group, most of the leadership, who had holed up in Idlib in northern Syria. The U.S. and its western allies protested vigorously that such a move would result in too many civilian casualties. After near a million and counting dead in the régime change wars, one must wonder how many is too many? 

This remnant and two other affiliates are what is now the ruling body in Syria. Take note that the ISIS members who attacked from the north, were the most effective and we can expect they will demand the majority of the power. It is interesting that the western media is labeling these two other groups as moderate jihadists, an oxymoron, or the opposition.

It appears that the Syrian military was ordered to stand down and that Assad was in communication with the leaders of these groups. It is also reported that the new leaders have communicated that they will not attack Russian assets.

It seems that Turkey, who had agreed with Russia and Iran to attempt to stabilize Syria, became a player in funneling U.S. equipment to these Islamist Jihadists and that Israel also approved of this attempt, they all came together to support this overthrow.  While the goal of overthrowing Assad has long been an objective of the U.S. and Israel, the U.S. financially supported the so called opposition in the Syrian war, many who were Jihadists and the remnants eventually morphed into ISIS. The same remnants that ended up in Idlib with the support of the U.S.. Many suspected that they were preserved to fight again in the future, the future that is now. Well, maybe the end justifies the means.

One must wonder why Turkey would assist in overthrowing Assad when they are both vocal opponents of Israel. We can expect the Erdogan sees an opportunity that may become evident very soon. He may view taking control of part of Syria as a step to his dream of a resurrection of the Ottoman Empire.

Israel believes that overthrowing Assad will cut off support from Iran that moves through Syria into Lebanon, but the concern voiced by some in the military in Israel is that Assad was a predictable and stabilizing force in Syria and the new rulers are an unknown. Do the new rulers love Israel more than Assad? Can they be expected to accept Israel's right to exist?

The U.S. may have believed that a move against Assad would force Russia to be distracted from Ukraine and send troops and supplies to Syria. It would also look like a political loss for Russia. The same applies to Iran. The reality is that both Russia and Iran seem to have not come to Assad's rescue and are in the process of pulling out of the country. It appears that they are just protecting their people and assets until they can safely exit.

The present masters in Washington may also hope that a new ISIS in Syria will be distraction to Trump that will hobble his attempts at domestic reform. I suspect they will be wrong and that Trump may finally pull U.S. troops from Syria and maybe even Iraq and let Turkey, Iran, Israel and regional powers deal with this mess.

Israel is moving into parts of Syria to establish a buffer from the new rulers. It may become another extension of Israel.

Will the new rulers now want access to the oil that is controlled and being sold by the U.S., that is in effect the property of Syria?

If these new rulers are sophisticated enough, they may be able to actually get funding from the U.S. congress, all they have to do is voice their support for elections and democracy and find a charismatic leader to lobby in the U.S.

There are also rumblings that the Kurds now see another opportunity to attempt to have their independence from Turkey. Will they gain support from Iran and others in the Arab community to punish Turkey for their double dealing?

While these realities are just the few that are going to be the byproduct of this event, we can expect no good result in the long run. It will most likely end like all regime change operations, death, destruction and chaos. Maybe some will rejoice because this is really the ultimate goal.

Biden's pardons, self protection.

LOTS MORE PARDONS COMING FROM BIDEN 

LEGACY IS DESTINED TO BE LABELED, "CORRUPT"

Biden's pardon of his son Hunter was always considered as a given,  He cannot stop there, as he has his brother and other family members who are aware of the blatant  corruption during his vice-presidency and presidency. One may speculate that as his leverage over Ukraine ends or maybe Ukraine's leverage over him, much more will be revealed in the future. Biden's power to control events will diminish very markedly after January 20. I suspect that the corruption is far deeper and far more extensive than anyone can guess.

While Biden may be a sly politician he is a sloppy criminal. While the Clinton's were sophisticated enough to form the "Clinton foundation" to funnel and launder money and kick-backs from those in foreign lands who received benefits from the U.S. government.  They also shared the largess with Democrat political organizations, relatives of TV personalities, like Chris Matthews daughter and other unemployable relatives of useful people. They also hired their daughter to run the operation, at least as the front.

Joe Biden just used his dysfunctional son, who may actually be the more moral member of the family, to just funnel the cash directly into the family coffers. That being the case, he may be much more vulnerable than if he would have shared.

Donald Trump can now use the precedent set by Biden, I expect many more pardons before Jan. 20., to pardon all his political allies persecuted by the Biden administration, Jan. 6 protesters, and whistle blowers that were prosecuted.  I expect Trump will begin his term with pardons rather than end it with pardons.

While Democrats are still willing to look the other way, the Biden administration was, up to now, the most corrupt administration in modern history. It is unlikely that it can be covered up much longer and then the rats may all jump the ship and blame old Joe for all the corruption that they willingly participated in.

Update on Russia's Oreshnik missile.

 NOT EQUIVALENT TO A NUCLEAR WEAPON

NEW MEDIUM RANGE MISSILE, EFFECTIVE BUT NOT DEVASTATING

Much was speculated about Russia's new medium range missile, now Professor Ted Postol of MIT has done the analysis and calculations to be more specific about the weapon. 

It is not equivalent to a nuclear weapon.

It is not more powerful than a 3000 or 6000 Glide bomb.

It is a new medium range missile that is very effective and seems to have performed well, but with its inert warheads it is destructive, but not dramatically so.

However, if armed with nuclear warheads, it would be a very devastating and destructive weapon.

His speculation is that the Russian scientists may have exaggerated it's potential to Putin, as he is not usually one to exaggerate.  I expect we will see more about this in the future.

No Maidan for Georgia.

 GEORGIAN PARLIAMENT TAKES CONTROL OF UNREST

CURRENT PRESIDENT TO EXIT DEC. 16, 2024

The attempt to overthrow the government of Georgia seems to be near an end. The Dream Party recently received the winning votes with 54 % of the vote. The current president Salome Zourabichvili term ends on Dec. 16th and will be replaced by a new president elected by Parliament on Dec. 14, 2024. The French born president and former part of the Macron government says she will not leave office as she claims that the election was fraudulent. She wants another election and has the support of her backers in the EU. It looks like Parliament is firm on their commitment to have her removed at the end of her term. The Parliament has suspended talks about joining the EU until 2028.

This may be the end of a period of unrest and uncertainty in Georgia. Last year the Parliament introduced a law that would require all political organizations who receive over 25 % foreign funds to be required to  disclose all these funds and sources. It is similar to laws in the U.S. that have existed for near 100 years. This law resulted in rioting in Georgia, threats of sanctions from the EU and U.S. and the parliament withdrew the law. The Parliament then did their homework and disclosed all the sources of foreign money flowing into the political system of Georgia.

The Parliament then reintroduced a revised law that passed overwhelmingly, the President vetoed the law, but the Parliament had the votes to override her veto. This likely had a great effect on the results of the election.

Much of the money came from the EU, the U.S. and other western governments and it verified what many believed was the process of bringing about revolution in Georgia, much like what was orchestrated in Ukraine in 2014. This strategy has been thoroughly exposed and will soon be of little effect in the future.

During the current election the younger generation was more inclined to join the EU, but the older generation feared becoming a replay of Ukraine. Many of these former Soviet countries have been convinced to replace the autocrats in the former Soviet Union with the autocrats in Brussels. It often becomes apparent that this move is not always in the best interest of the people, but is attractive to the elite ruling class. EU regulations often end much of the traditional industry and business  and force the younger generation to move to the EU's bigger cities, leaving the rural areas in decline populated by the elderly.

An example is the Baltic region where EU rules ended the traditional fishing industry and closed the existing electrical generation plants, ending jobs and forcing them to buy expensive electric power.

One would think that these new democracies would strive to chart their own future, rather be subservient to the ruling class in Brussels that forces economic, cultural and social regulations that are not in the best interest of their country.

Will tariffs bring back manufacturing to the U.S.?

 BRINGING BACK MANUFACTURING, IF POSSIBLE, WILL TAKE DECADES

TRADE WAR WILL CAUSE ECONOMIC DECLINE

We hear that raising tariffs on imports will be an incentive to bring back manufacturing jobs to the U.S.. While it may have some effect on some select industries, it will take a far more comprehensive and unified approach to be effective. I suspect that U.S. is not ready to make the necessary changes.

To bring industry back it will take drastic and wide-ranging reforms of regulations. Everything from environmental, taxing and zoning regulations on the federal, state and local level. 

Industries do not leave or locate in foreign countries just for large profits, but also to be profitable and competitive and insure their very existence.

If someone wants to start a new business in the U.S. they need a competitive product, then purchase properly zoned land and jump thousand of hoops to construct the plant, then purchase the equipment, hire qualified employees, provide social benefits and healthcare and presto their product becomes obsolete or uncompetitive and they risk losing all of their investment. A good example is the much touted Taiwan semiconductor plant in Arizona, the plant is 2 years behind schedule, the costs have ballooned and they cannot find employees willing to work the night shifts and they have publicly voiced regret at making the decision.

The other option is they can seek having it made somewhere else, no plant, no equipment, no employes, no benefits, no government in their pocket all along the process. Taxes only on their profit, no property taxes, no union problems and if their product becomes obsolete, they still have resources to improvise or adjust to a new product. It is a no brainer and a situation that will not be easily be corrected to entice anyone to build plant and manufacturing in the US.. 

Tariffs on Chinese goods will result in what is actually happening, a good example is that China has in the last few days restricted the export of Antimony, a product that is essential to a myriad number of products and China dominates the mining and processing of this metal. All Antimony mines and processing has been closed in the U.S. due to environmental regulations, as is the case with most rare earth minerals. All dominated by China for much of the world's supply. Not a conspiracy by China, but just filing a need that others did not want to fill.

The U.S. has not built a new oil refining facility in decades and in fact has been closing these facilities, making the U.S. dependent on refined products from other countries, many of which we have diplomatic disagreement.

The reality is that the US. cannot force others to do out bidding by threats and sanctions, it will take real diplomacy and a commitment to co-existence, as we are dependent on the rest of the world and if we should strive to become self reliant it will take decades, not just a new administration.

Geopolitical war expands to Syria and Georgia.

 HOPING TO FORCE RUSSIA TO SUE FOR PEACE?

DEATH AND DESTRUCTION FOREIGN POLICY HAS NO LIMITS

We see over the weekend a resumption of the Syrian civil war that has resulted in the death of over 500,000 Syrians and the desperation of much of the population into Europe and Turkey, all just some more collateral damage in the ongoing geopolitical war. 

The difference today rather than in 2011 when the civil war first erupted is that much of the world, except for American citizens, understand that Syrian rebels are just mercenaries bought and paid for with U.S. dollar debt. That and the freedom to keep the spoils of war, is much of the incentive to reignite this war.  

At the same time we see another attempt at a maiden revolution in Georgia. After the parliament decided to suspend talks on joining the EU until 2028, the cities erupted into violent protests and EU countries promised to sanction the leadership of the country. Elections were recently held and those that have misgivings about becoming part of the EU and NATO prevailed. It seems to be a replay of the Ukrainian revolution of 2014, much of it financed by the Uk and U.S.. Again, most of the world now understands the pattern and the policy and understands that it about global control rather than democracy.

Much of this is just another attempt to expand these conflicts and put pressure on Russia to accept NATO membership for Ukraine. While that may be the intended motive, it is more likely to end in a cataclysmic climax rather than quiet submission. 

We may soon expect to see this conflict expand into Moldova and Transnistria. After all chaos and death are all necessary to prevail in this geopolitical battle between good and evil, if only it was simple to determine which is good or which is evil.