Middle east Crisis part 3 iraq

HOW DID WE GET HERE?

MIDDLE EAST CHAOS part 3

IRAQ

 

Iraq, the home of the garden of Eden, Ur, the birthplace of Abraham, Sumaria, Babylon, Assyria, the birthplace of civilization itself. With Bagdad as its capital, it used to remind us of Aladdin, Arabian Nights, caravans, magic carpets, genie's, bazaars and all the images from movies and tales of the past.  A place that I always dreamt of visiting, but never will. Today it brings forth vastly different images.

 

Modern Iraq was ruled by the Ottoman empire until its dissolution in 1917, at the end of WW1. Under the French/British plan to divide the middle east it became part of the British Mandate. On November 1, 1920 the region became a British Mandate under the League of Nations and was called the "State of Iraq". Britain brought in a (Sunni) Hashemite king from what is now Saudi-Arabia to rule, sparking widespread discontent and rebellion.

 

In 1932, Iraq gained partial independence from Britain, although the British-appointed King Faisal ruled, the British military had special rights in Iraq. The Hashemite's ruled until 1958, when King Faisal 11 was assassinated in a coup by Brigadier General Abd al-Karim Qasim. Qasim ruled for 5 years before being overthrown in 1963 by colonel Abdul Salam Arif.  His brother took power after his death and lasted until 1968 when he was overthrown by the Ba'ath Party. The Ba'athist government was ruled by Ahmed Hasan Al-Bakir , but was slowly eclipsed by Saddam Hussein.

Iraq is a majority Shia population mostly in the south and east, Sunni in the north and west and Kurd in the north. There have been disputes with the Kurds off and on for years. Iraq was supported by the United States as part of the Cold -War diplomacy. They were on opposite sides in the Israeli-Arab conflicts of 1948, 1967, 1973. There were attempts to unify Iraq and Syria by the mutually ruled Ba'athist party. This idea was rejected by Saddam Hussein.

 

Saddam Hussein formally seized power as president in 1979. Saddam Hussein was a secularist, but the Ba'athist party was Sunni, the majority of the country was Shi'ite. Saddam Hussein initiated reforms, including universal compulsory education including university, free national medical care and farm subsidies. He also was brutal to all that opposed him and executed many. The Ayatollah Khomeini, the new leader of the Iranian Revolution hoped he could incite Iraq's Shi'ite population to rise up in a Islamic revolution. Saddam Hussein then launched an invasion of Iran in 1980, hoping to topple the Iranian Government. He was supported by Saudi-Arabia, the gulf states, Russia and the United States. The eight year war ended in a standstill costing a million casualties.  The war finally ended in 1989 with a peace plan brokered by the UN and the western powers.

There was an ongoing dispute with Kuwait over portions of  Iraq ceded to Kuwait by the British. This dispute reached a crisis in 1990. There is some debate as to the signals sent by the U.S. in this matter. The U.S. and Iraq had reasonable diplomatic relations at this time. The official line was that the U.S. made it clear, not to invade Kuwait. The ambassador was April Glaspie who had several conversations with Iraq before this invasion took place. You can judge for yourself , as the transcripts of the hearings on this matter are available here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_Glaspie  .  Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990, The UN, led by the U.S., launched operation desert storm in February 1991. Saudi-Arabia was used as the staging area for this war.  The Iraqi army was destroyed with approximately 30,000 dead.  While Saddam Hussein was left in power he was under UN Sanctions and compelled to allow inspections of certain sites.

 

After the war, U.S. troops remained in Saudi-Arabia and this was a contentious issue with many Saudi's including Osama Bin Laudin. Bin Laudin made it known that the stationing of foreign troops in the home of Mecca and Medina was an affront to Islam.  Although he and his associates were exiled out of Saudi-Arabia, they were able to engineer the attacks on the world trade center and pentagon on September 11, 2001. This brought about an invasion of Afghanistan , destruction of Bin Laudin's bases in Afghanistan , and the overthrow of the Taliban government and a beginning of the war on terror.

 

The U.S. under the second Bush administration was increasingly inclined to remove Saddam Hussein from office. He was linked to an attempted assassination of his father, George Bush Sr., he was paying $25,000 to the families of Palestinian suicide bombers in Israel. There began a concerted effort to gain international support for the removal of Saddam Hussein. Eventually claiming that the dictator had weapons of mass destruction that would end up in the hands of al-Qaeda.  On March 20, 2003 the invasion of Iraq began, it did not take long to overcome the Iraqi army. the Iraqi's in general were happy to be rid of Saddam Hussein, but not happy about the occupation. While there was not a clear stated policy,  the plan was to bring a democratic government to the center of the middle east. While the intentions may have been well meaning, it was a very difficult endeavor. The new Government, was majority Shia, the former army was mostly ruled by Sunni Officer corps. Most of these members lost their positions,. and some became affiliated with al-Qaeda and eventually ISIS.

 

President Obama campaigned on ending the U.S. involvement in Iraq. The Obama/ Clinton premature withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and a government that was not inclusive of the Sunni minority left a void of power that was soon filled by ISIS. When confronted by Sunni fighters the Iraqi government forces often refused to fight for a government for whom they had a weak allegiance. The question remains how long would the U.S. commitment need to be to insure a lasting democratic government in Iraq?

 

PART 4 TO FOLLOW

NW LEHIGH'S DARRYL SCHAFER ELECTED VICE-CHAIRMAN OF PSBA REGIONAL DIRECTORS COORDINATING COUNCIL

Northwestern Lehigh School Board Director, Darryl Shafer, has been unanimously elected Vice-Chairman of the Pennsylvania School Board Association Regional Directors Coordinating Council(RDCC). He will now be serving as one of the 11 members of the Governing Board of the PSBA. These 11 members represent all of the 501 school boards across the state. Northwestern Lehigh should be proud that out of 4500 school directors in the state one of their school board directors has been elected to this position.  Mr. Schafer has served for 10 years on the PSBA. He is currently serving as the Mid-East Region #8 Regional Director, which encompasses Berks, Carbon, Lehigh, Monroe, Pike, and Schuylkill counties. These are all unpaid positions.

Mr. Schafer has served 10 years on the Northwestern Lehigh school board.  He has served as Vice-President and 3 years as President of the board. He has also served on various committees such as Education, Curriculum Council, Negotiations, Operations, School Health Advisory Council, PSBA Legislative Liaison and the NSBA Advocacy Network.

He also holds the position of Vice-President of the Carbon-Lehigh Intermediate Unit #21 and is a member of their Negotiations Committee. He has served in the past as Secretary of the Northwestern Recreation Committee for eight years. He has served as President of the Lehigh Valley Aviculture Society.

He holds a BA from Kutztown University in anthropology/sociology with a concentration in archaeology and a minor in geography. Darryl owns several online bookstores, as well as a seasonal family-run concession business. He is a fully disabled veteran, a life-member of the Disabled Veteran's Association (DVA), and a member of several national sporting organizations. Personal interests include fly fishing, renovating his home, former boy scout, and having shown horses on the national level. Currently residing in Kempton with his lovely wife Becky and their two daughters, Ayla (18) and Cora (13), Darryl is a very strong supporter of the arts, technical education and diversity.

Darryl Schafer has earned the support and respect of all who have worked with him on the Northwestern Lehigh school board, and the PSBA, the Intermediate Unit, and in all his endeavors.  He has served in all these capacities without compensation.  He is known for his research and bringing facts to his positions, his dedication in doing his best. He should be commended by the community for his selfless dedication to a high standard of excellence in his service.


PARKLAND HAS TEACHERS CONTRACT 1 YEAR EARLY

The Parkland school district has agreed to a contract 9 months ahead of schedule. The new contract will take effect on September 1, 2016. This is the usual 3-year contract that includes a salary increase of 2.4% each year.  This is in line with what has been the norm for most other districts in the area. Some say that they were glad to get the contract early as economic clouds are on the horizon and with lay-offs beginning at some large local firms.

Their health insurance plans resemble the C and D plans currently offered by Northwestern Lehigh school district. It appears that most of the districts are attempting to hold down these costs, particularly since their pension costs are rising to more than 29% of salaries for the coming year.

These pension costs have been part of the hold-up on the state budget as they are not sustainable.  The only real answer is a 401k-type plan with defined contributions by the school districts. The pension fund has a $60 billion deficit that is growing, while the economy is probably at the high point in this economic cycle. The pension fund must be reformed if it is to survive. 

SANDERS DOESNT WANT TO WIN NOMINATION

It is now obvious that Bernie Sanders is no more than a sparring partner for Hillary Clinton. Whether it is just to put up a phony show or give Hillary practice in debating, there is really no desire from Sanders to actually win the democratic primary. 

In last night's debate he neutered himself on national television by apologizing for something that, it could have been argued, was not his campaign's fault.  This is the second time that he has played the foil for Hillary on national television. It is interesting that many of his positions coincide with the positions of Republican candidates, particularly trade and national defense. 

Practicing for real debates is often done by candidates, but not on national television in a fraudulent forum. Bernie Sanders has raised substantial amounts of money from honest people who hoped they would have a chance at a new independent presidential candidate. What they have is a fraud who has passed up two chances at raising his campaign to the next level by damaging Hillary Clinton with the truth and has instead kissed the ring of the anointed candidate. He should withdraw and return the money that he has accepted under false pretense of being an actual candidate for president.

I am not a fan of a lot of Sanders' positions, but I thought he was an honest guy willing to depart from the establishment line. He must be a disappointment to many of his supporters.



BERNIE SANDERS, HILLARY AND THE DNC

The Democratic National Committee has suspended the Sanders Campaign from using their database for the foreseeable future. The DNC claims that the Sanders campaign accessed information from Hillary's campaign.

The interesting point is that the Sanders campaign informed the DNC weeks ago that there were problems with the database. Did anyone question that the Clinton campaign may have also accessed Sanders campaign information from the database?

The company that runs the database, NGP VAN, runs this database for all democratic candidates, unions, activists, and most all progressive organizations. The Sanders campaign has paid around $450,000 for use of the database. Has anyone asked what the Clinton campaign has paid for this? The Sanders campaign has sued to regain access to the information they paid for and also access to all the information that they have added to the files. NGP VAN says that it repaired the firewalls within hours of being notified. With only weeks to the beginning of primary season, every day of lost access is a huge handicap to the Sanders campaign.

On Thursday the Sanders Campaign received the endorsement of two very important groups, Democracy for Action, a large progressive group, and the 700,000 member Communication Workers Union. Some say this is what brought about the suspension. The Sanders campaign has accused the DNC of being in the bag for Hillary Clinton. This is undeniably true. The Democratic Establishment would not want Sanders to be their nominee, much like the RNC does not want an outsider as their nominee. Its all about the power and money! The political establishment on both sides will do all that they can do to deny the will of the people. They have become dishonest referees and it will damage their base in the future.

This has given the Sanders campaign, if they have learned anything from Donald Trump, just what they needed, if they are smart enough and adept enough, they can pin this right onto Hillary Clinton. We will now see if the Sanders campaign is a real campaign that wants to win, or just a sparring partner to make Hillary look good. Tonight is their debate, we will see if Sanders can step up to do what it takes to win.

Bernie Sanders is way to the left for most people, but is a likeable and honest candidate. He has brought much to the debate in this election cycle and deserves fair treatment.



Who will rule the Caliphate

MIDDLE EAST COLD WAR ON MANY FRONTS

OIL WARS AND WHO WILL RULE THE CALIPHATE

Looking at the Middle East, complicated and intense maneuvering for power is underway. It is looking more likely that the establishment of an Islamic caliphate is a real possibility. The question is, who is going to rule?  You have Iran, the leader of the Shia world and its allies, opposed by Saudi Arabia, leader of the Sunnis and their allies. You also have Turkey, who is a member of NATO, possibly reminiscing of the glory days of the Ottoman empire. Until recently, this all seemed to be a pipe dream, but events in the last few years make it look much more possible.

The maneuvering has been going on ever since the founding of the Islamic Republic of Iran.  It is escalating now. The Saudis and their allies have been attempting to counter Iran's influence and subversion in diverse places in the Middle East. Iran has been supporting their front groups like Hezbollah for years. Money is flowing to allies, and those not directly committed will need to decide which side to ally with.  Iran has recently had a windfall of 100's of billions of dollars to keep up the fight. The Saudis and their allies are well financed.

Iran, the Shia leader has a population of 78,000,000. It has a modern military and terrain that is defendable. Turkey, a majority Sunni country, is also roughly 78,000,000 people with a modern military. Egypt the largest country, majority Sunni, is secular for now, having overthrown the Muslim Brotherhood, which is a Sunni extremist group; Hamas is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. Iraq is majority Shia, but Arab not Persian. Somalia and Yemen have populations of around 30,000,000 each. You can see by the above names that the struggle in these countries is almost a daily item.

Being Sunni or Shia does not necessarily mean that they all favor an Islamic caliphate , but as we know from history, victory often goes to the dedicated and motivated minority.

While subversion, terrorism and fear are all tools in this conflict, oil has also become a weapon in this war. OPEC and Saudi Arabia have continued to overproduce to depress the price of oil. On one hand it is attempting to bankrupt the fracking producers in the US...US producers need $50 a barrel to be profitable and they have large debts from their huge investments in this resource. They may soon start falling out due to bankruptcy. It will be interesting to see who buys these assets.  Don't be surprised if it is not Middle East players, maybe not directly but indirectly.  Then it also puts pressure on the revenue of their enemies, such as Iran.  It is also effecting oil producers world wide and may cause economic problems in the future.

The US policy is unclear, but it has been consistent from Bush to Clinton, to Bush, to Obama / Clinton. Bush destabilized Iraq, a counter to Iran. Obama /Clinton destabilized Egypt, a secular modern country, by assisting in the deposing of Mubarak. They supported the Muslim Brotherhood, a Sunni extremist group that has ties to the White House and Hiliary Clinton. They overthrew Kadffi in Libya, and there is evidence they supported terrorist groups in that country. They continue to insist on the overthrowing of Assad in Syria, with no plan for what will replace him.

In the latest news, Saudi Arabia is forming a coalition of 34 Mid-East and north African countries, all Sunni majorities.  Iran, Iraq, Syria and Azerbaijan are notably absent.  At the same time we see that the Saudis have allowed voting and electing women to office. Saudi Arabia is the home of Wahhabis ideology which has been propagated worldwide. ISIS and Al-Qaeda have been supported by Saudis, if not the government itself.   This is going to bring about push-back by fundamentalist adherents in their own country. It is very possible we will see increased instability in this influential country. They claim that this coalition is going to destroy terrorists, and if they can clearly demonstrate that this is true, it may go well, but it is a red flag to Iran that they are the object of this coalition.

I believe that Iran has had some nuclear weapons for some time. They probably do not have many, but this is a modern well-educated population, many educated in the west since the 1960's.  To believe that they don't have this 70-year old technology is a stretch.

What they have not had is the means to deliver these weapons. Watching the news, we see that they have successfully tested their first medium range ballistic missiles. They now have the means of delivery. It looks like, unless there is quick change of events, we may be entering a much hotter phase of this conflict.



GOP STRATEGY FAILS

TRUMP, CRUZ, CARSON, LOVE FEST

The debate last night was very interesting in the fact that Trump and Cruz did not take the bait to destroy each other.  Not only did they not take the bait, but they went out of their way to demonstrate that it will not happen.

Trump also made it very clear that there is no chance he will run as a third party candidate. All the maneuvering before the debate by the establishment went down in flames in a big way.

I can see Trump, Cruz and Carson campaigning together against Hillary Clinton.

As for Cruz taking the nomination away from Trump, all that will be necessary is for Trump to let it be known that Cruz will be his first pick for the Supreme Court. Conservatives know the youthful Cruz would be the most dynamic justice on the court. If they had the choice of Cruz being president for 8 years or 40 years on the supreme court, only a fool would choose the former.

As for a brokered convention, there is little doubt that the combination of Cruz, Trump and Carson will have more than 51% of the delegates.

Trump is about to ramp up his media campaign and it will most likely be a departure from the standard fare.

The Carson, Trump, Cruz coalition, which I believe was proposed by Ted Cruz, is a unique and brilliant move by these candidates.

The Republican consultant class may well be facing a low income in 2016.