2024 problems now move to 2025

 WILL 2025 BE THE YEAR OF CONCLUSIONS?

CAN THE PRESENT CHAOS BE SUSTAINED FOR ANOTHER YEAR?

2025 is a big number, especially when you have witnessed 79 much smaller numbers. I suspect that many will agree the world has become much more chaotic and unpredictable. Maybe 2025 will witness some resolutions or conclusions to problems underway. 

The Ukraine fiasco appears to be on its way to some sort of conclusion, maybe not from some actual willingness of the combatants, but by the exhaustion of the whole affair. The Ukrainians are running out of manpower, NATO is running out of equipment and wherewithal and the Russians want to move on to other long range endeavours.  The time is soon ripe for a settlement, but it must be a permanent sustainable settlement, not a band aid to be ripped off later. It will require humility and real objective diplomacy, maybe necessity will make that happen.

Things are dire in the middle east, but again there are signs of exhaustion, which may lead to some sort of resolution, but I doubt that any of it will be concluded in 2025, it is too deep, too severe, too much hate and animosity, very little good will.

The other pressing question is the emergence of the multipolar world that wants to break free from control of the existing order. Again, that existing order has been powered by unlimited amounts of dollar creation that has fueled this quest for global control. It is also exhausted, whether apparent as yet or not, it is unsustainable.  The question is, can the transition to a multipolar world be accomplished peacefully, with mutual respect and co-existanstance or must it be settled in the age old fashion of mutual destruction. I doubt if this transition will be completely accomplished in 2025. 

As always, we must hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. There are some signs of hope, at present that is all we have, a hope for a better year.

Zelensky uses gas as weapon on neighbors.

 DESPERATION WILL CAUSE SERIOUS CONSEQUENCES

IF BRIBES DONT WORK, CUT OFF GAS

Ukraine hosts gas pipelines that feed gas to Ukraine, Moldova, Hungary, Transistia, Slovakia and Romania. This gas originates in Russia and Ukraine earns around $1 billion in compensation. This has been upheld by all during this conflict, but the contract expires at the end of 2024. Russia is willing to renew the contract with the same terms as before, but Ukraine is indicating that it will end this transfer of gas to its neighbors, who Zelensky claims is an ally of Russia. He is most concerned with Hungary and Slovakia who want an end to this war and are not willing to sacrifice the economic future of their countries by giving material support to Ukraine. They would like to stay out of this war and want it to end believing that the end is inevitable and it is time to end the death and destruction.

Ukraine is now set up to get LNG gas from the United States, probably at no cost. This will possibly satisfy Ukraines needs but will place these other countries in a dangerous position in the middle of winter.

It is reported that Zelensky offered the Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, who survived an assassination attempt earlier in the year being shot by 5 bullets by an EU?NATO supporter, a $500 million bribe to agree to support Ukraine. Robert Fico refused and was then labeled a Putin apologist by Zelensky. We can assume that this is U.S. money and likely offered with the approval of the U.S.. 

Now both Fico and Orban of Hungary are letting it be known that if Zelensky cuts of this gas, they will no longer be able to supply Ukraine with electricity. Zelensky is outraged and is asking the EU to intervene on Ukraines behalf to force them to supply electricity to Ukraine.

While the end of this gas will mostly effect the above countries, it will also be a factor to the rest of Europe which is already struggling as the result of the energy and other sanctions on Russia. Will the cutoff of gas damage Russia more than the rest of Europe, a very questionable result?

Anyway, they now have one day to make a new contract or we can expect a lot of controversy in the EU?NATO coalition.

Israel debates attacking Iran.

 MOSSAD SAYS DO IT NOW, IDF NOT SO SURE

WILL US POLITICS PLAY IN THE TIMING

Its no secret that Israel has been talking about a major attack on Iran for some time. Some in the government along with their allies in the US have been itching to attack Iran for years. Several US presidents have nixed the idea, but it seems its on the agenda to be accomplished before the end of the Biden administration.

Such an attack will not be undertaken without the US cooperation, as it could turn out to be a bad gamble if Israel went it alone, in fact it may be bad gamble no matter what. Iran is not the Iran of 1980 and it has formidable air defenses and also lots of offensive capability that can reach Israel. It could possibly devastate Israel even without nuclear weapons.

Usually the premise is that Iran needs to be attacked before they can acquire nuclear weapons. This is an old narrative, that if thought about, is weak, Iran is a well educated and modern nation, if they wanted nuclear weapons they could have had them long ago. There is a debate in Iran between the more religious elements that do not want them and others who feel it is the only hope for their survival.

The other argument is that they are the power behind all the resistance to Israel. It is true that they have supported Hezbollah, but Hamas not so much. It is unlikely that any attack will dissolve Iran as a nation and there are lots of places to take up the resistance to Israel.

Then there are the risks of an attack, so far, Iran has been restrained in its counter attacks on Israel, they have made it clear that they do not want all out regional war. In Israel's last attempt to attack Iran, it is reported that many of their fighters turned back due to electronic countermeasures and Iran's air defenses were very effective.

The Mossad is counseling to attack Iran now while they are perceived to be weak after a setback in Syria, but the IDF believes it can not guarantee success in an attack or the ability to defend against an all out counter attack.

We can expect that Netanyahu will go for it, but may time such an attack to put the next US president in the hot seat on his first day in office.

Turkey masses troops, U.S. sends troops to Syria.

 TURKEY TO BE KEY TO CONTROL OF SYRIA

KURDS TO BE FORCED TO BE UNDER CONTROL OF NEW GOVERNMENT

In recent days the Turkish government and the leaders of the new Syrian government have agreed that that all weapons and military factions will be under the control of the Syrian government. This will include the U.S. backed Kurdish factions that control northeast Syria. This will likely create a conflict with the United States because it will need to decide if it will cooperate in the disarmament of the Kurdish forces. It will also bring into question the U.S. troops that also occupy parts of Syria.

Turkey is reportedly massing troops on its southern border possibly to cooperate with the new Syrian government to force the disarmament of the Kurdish forces. At the same time the U.S. has increased its forces to over 2000 in Syria.

The U.S. has also removed the bounty on the leader of the new Syrian government who was formerly labeled a terrorist.

Israel is reported to actually building settlements in its newly acquired buffer zone in southern Syria.

We can expect to see U.N. action on requests for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria, since they were never there by invitation of the Syrian government. They are controlling the oil wealth of the Syrian government. We can also expect to see U.N. action on Israeli occupation of Syria.

While these resolutions may not be followed, it will be another diplomatic hit on the legality of U.S. and Israeli actions.

Turkey is in the power position in Syria, they can offer the new Syrian government support, economically, politically and militarily. This will also enhance Turkey's hopes of restoration of the former Ottoman empire. While many may believe this is far fetched, the reality is that the Turkish government has been setting the stage through it entertainment and other historical narratives to bring about this hope in the minds of Turkish citizens. 

So, while the end of 2024 saw the end of the Assad regime, 2025 will usher in the beginning of the new period in Syrian history. 

Congress runs the country like a hardcore addict.

 CONTINUAL RESOLUTION IS AT A $2 TRILLION YEARLY DEFICIT RATE

NO BUDGET AND CONTINUE TO ADD MORE SPENDING

We have all winessed the behaviour of hard-core drug addicts who run their family and their finances into the ground and end up on the street. Congress seems to have the same kind of addiction to spending and more spending. There is no budget that balances income with revenue, it is just a wide open spending bill and they all have their favorite little piece. The problem is they will not end up on the street, but many responsible citizens will.

These endless continuing resolutions just keep the debt growing and fixes the deficit for that period. It is time that congress takes responsibility and overhauls the budget, make it all public and they need to understand what they are voting on. Who actually writes these so called budgets, or I should say spending bills, as a budget is supposed to balance income and expenses? 

All foreign aid should be suspended until there is a surplus in the budget. All grants for research should be eliminated until they show a surplus. Then every dime should be scrutinized to see if it is vital for the nations good. It is way past time to get the nations financial house in order. 

The Defense department needs a thorough audit as does many other big spending departments. Does anyone doubt that there is $100s of billions of waste and fraud.

While we will hear all kinds of excuses why this is not the time, due to national security or some other pressing matter. The reality is the debt and deficits are the greatest threats to the future of this country. Only a country on a sound financial footing can have the resources to be a great country.

Trump can start reorganization without confirmed positions.

 THE PRESIDENT HAS THE POWER TO MAKE DECISIONS WHILE POSITIONS ARE VACANT

TRUMP LIKES TO KEEP BUSY

It is expected that many will attempt to slow walk Trump's appointments. While that may be an attempt to slow down his agenda, it by no means needs to be a major obstacle in beginning reform or implementing his agenda. 

The President has the authority to name an interim head of every department, and I suspect other key people in a department, they usually just require that they are a former head or have worked in that department. While the qualifications are vague, objections will need to go through a legal process which may take far longer than the confirmation process.

The other option is that Trump can personally start making decisions for certain departments, he does not need to be confirmed, that happened last November. He can also use a lot of assistants and interns to observe actions in these departments and report directly to the President. The President can then take actions on those who are not implementing his directives. The President can show up at these offices with his staff and begin making decisions anytime after Jan. 20. 

As for the state department and other foreign policy appointments, Trump can use the time zone differences to work through the night, personally talking and negotiating with foreign leaders. It is well know that Trump sleeps very little and we can expect he will be anxious to fit as much as possible into his 4 years.

He would be wise to use the bully pulpit to be as transparent as possible with his activities and progress, maybe a weekly address or a bi-weekly press conference. He can then blunt the spin and narrative that will likely be used to cast a negative light on his methods.

One more month and it will all begin.

Will terrorism and assassination rise in 2025?

 USING ASSASSINATION'S AS A NATIONAL POLICY

WE CAN EXPECT A SIMILAR RESPONSE

In the last months we have seen the assassination of both political and military leaders in Russia, Iran and Lebanon. We have also seen terrorist acts in Russia at a nightclub and the blowing up of electronic devices in Lebanon.  It seems the attitude is that such acts are the results and just rewards of bad policies of the victims. We have also saw the assassination of the daughter of Alexander Dugin, a philosopher in Russia. Both this assassination and the nightclub are connected to the government of Ukraine as is the recent scooter bomb that killed a Russian general in Moscow. Israel admitted to assassinations of political leaders in Tehran and Lebanon. They also as much as admitted they placed explosive devices that wounded not only members of Hezbollah, but many innocent bystanders, a terrorist act by anyone's definition.

While many herald these acts as a policy of war, I do not recall any such acts during WW2, were it became the policy of either side of the conflict. While there may have been some instances it was not the open policy of any government.

In Israel with the neutralization of Syria and other setbacks by the so called resistance, it is very likely that such acts will now become more common in Israel. What will be the response be if some prominent political leader is targeted? 

In Ukraine, Russia has not attacked the government buildings in Kiev nor has it targeted political leaders, does anyone doubt that they have the capacity for such acts?

We have also seen assassination attempts against leaders in Europe who opposed NATO expansion, like the president of Slovakia, and threats against Viktor Orban. Does anyone believe that the leaders of the UK or France are perfectly immune from similar attacks.

We would hope this trend is denounced and ended before it becomes the new plaque in international relations in 2025.