Potential disaster building in Africa

WAR, FAMINE  NOW COVID-19

WILL DEVELOPED WORLD BE ABLE TO HELP?

The chances of a disaster of biblical magnitude is developing on the African Continent.  There have been ongoing low level conflicts going on for several years. The Congo, Libya, Burundi, Central African Republic and Nigeria are all embroiled in conflicts that restrain any organized efforts to suppress a virus outbreak. There is also instability and unrest in many more of the 54 African countries.

At the same time, East Africa has had the worst Locust infestation in 25 years, it has placed most of East Africa in a low food supply situation. This locust problem is centered in Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia. There are also crisis food shortages in Yemen, Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, and South Sudan. Much of Africa has a localizes food distribution system that is unable to supply needs from other areas. It is a very much a on time delivery system with small local growers. Any disruption and it will quickly becomes a crisis.

The Covid-19 Virus is at present a limited outbreak in Africa. There is a hope that the climate will not be enabling to this virus, but that is yet to be determined. At present there are around 20,000 cases reported. While this is a small number, as we have seen in the Northern Hemisphere that may just be the beginning of the tidal wave to come. There have been lock-downs in some countries and an effort to educate the population as to what measures to take. With an already fragile and stressed system, lock-downs will create instant shortages of everything. Lock downs in Africa can beget a crisis in themselves.

There is testing going on in many of the populated areas, likely none in the rural parts. Africa likely has less than 10% of the medical capabilities of Europe and the United States.

The biggest hope is that virus will not be as aggressive due to the warm humid climate. This is a real possibility and will become more clear in the next 60 days. If it does not, even if the virus is less virulent, any adding of instability can become a widespread disaster.

In the past, crisis in Africa have been minimized by large scale efforts from the developed world. While some help will be available, it is doubtful that there will be the capabilities of the past, due to the developed world's own crisis management.