Escalation will not bring success in Ukraine.

 IT MAY BRING WW3

RUSSIA'S RESTRAINT MAY BE COMING TO AN END

NATO and the U.S. have now added another escalation in an attempt to defeat Russia in Ukraine. They are all approving western missiles to target inside Russia. Russia is aware that these missile system are often operated by western personnel and use western satellites and targeting equipment. They are, in effect, NATO attacks on mainland Russia. Russia has made it clear that will consider these attacks as coming from the countries whose missiles and personnel are managing these attacks, and will respond.

Many po-po Russian threats at retaliation, believing they will not respond. So far Russia has not targeted western troops or equipment outside of Ukraine. Is it because they fear them or have they calculated that they are winning this conflict militarily, economically and politically. Attacks inside Russia will result in the leadership succumbing to the dissent inside Russia that has been lobbying to get this over with by intensifying the conflict.

Russia has many weapons that it has not used, so far, especially electronic counter measures. I expect that they would rather keep some weapons under wrap in case they do have to engage in an all out NATO war. 

They have made it clear that any warplanes attacking Russian troops originating in Germany or Poland will be targeted as will the bases they fly from, same goes for defensive missiles fired from other countries.

Russia also has the ability to take down satellites and gps systems used for targeting inside Russia, I expect this will be the first response for attacks inside Russia. Also U.S. surveillance drones in over the Black sea will likely be targeted. 

If this occurs, the the cries for WW3 will begin in earnest. I assume first strike nuclear attacks on Moscow are already being debated in Washington. We can also assume that similar possibilities for Washington and London are being debated in Moscow. 

The dissolution of the United States intensifies.

LUST FOR POWER DESTROYING THE GREAT AMERICAN EXPERIMENT 

IT MAY NEVER BE PUT BACK TOGETHER AGAIN

Yesterday's much acclaimed verdict of the corrupt New York legal system is just one more nail in the coffin of what was once the greatest successful experiment in self government. I expect it may get far worse in the future.

We have witnessed corrupt intrigue, by the intelligence community, the media, the elections system and now the legal system as every pillar of a democracy is being eroded in the lust for power. We witness how this power is dividing the country to the point that I see no crisis that will unite this country anytime in the near future.

While those who want to retain this power are desperate in this attempt, they are losing the argument at home and abroad. Sadly, we Americans will all suffer for their evil intentions, both here and abroad.

We can expect than the lack of support for this federal government by a large percent of the population will eventually have significant repercussions, from the unwillingness of many states to submit to their mandates to the refusal of many, particularly the former backbone of our military, to fight in foreign wars in the future.  

Hopefully we will not see a breakdown of social order that often occurs when the legal remedies for change are denied to a population. I expect this government would welcome such a breakdown so that they could assume more power, ultimate power.

The reality is, that they are losing, they are losing at home and abroad, because they are corrupt and their policies are just plain evil. Ultimately they will suffer the consequences for their corruption, lets hope that the country can survive. 

Is Zelensky now a world leader?

 PEACE SUMMIT WITHOUT RUSSIA IS A JOKE

EVEN 70 NATIONS ATTENDING WILL HAVE NO EFFECT

A peace summit is planned for June 15-16 at a resort in Switzerland, a supposedly neutral country that has had enormous pressure to support Ukraine. It is amazing that there is a summit without Russia being invited. Without Russia's attendance there will be no positive results for peace. I expect it will be more pleading for money, weapons, sanctions against anyone who wants to be neutral, more of the same drama of the last 3 years.

Peace in Ukraine could be accomplished very quickly, the proposals by Russia for peace, before the conflict started, had set clear guidelines, a neutral, non-aligned Ukraine, No NATO membership and human rights for Russians' living in eastern Ukraine. This proposal was rejected by the U.S. and NATO. It is possible that if a referendum would have been held in Ukraine, it may have been another matter.

Then shortly after the onset of hostilities a similar agreement was reached in Turkey, it would have not included Crimea being reunited with Ukraine, but would have insured the territorial integrity of Ukraine. This was similar to proposals in 2 Minx agreements that were not taken seriously by the west. Russia demonstrated good faith by withdrawing its troops from around Kiev. The proposal was then rejected and the west declared some kind of victory.

Shortly after that, Russia held votes in the 4 eastern oblasts and with a positive vote, declared them now part of Russia. 

The reality is that Ukraine is now in a very weak negotiating position. The 4 eastern oblasts will not be ceded back to Ukraine. NATO membership is still a no, just as Russia has clearly insisted since 2008. If this war continues as it is, Ukraine will lose everything east of the Dnieper river and NATO membership will still be no. With the loss of Odessa, Ukraine will no longer be a viable prosperous country, but just a weak, poor, dependent of the west. It may even open it up to claims by Poland, Romania and Hungary of what is left in the west.

Ukraine, even with NATO support, cannot prevail in this conflict. For any hope of victory it would require NATO troops on the ground in very large numbers, conscription in the west and then the possibility of a nuclear confrontation. That is the choices for Ukraine and the west. Russia's historical experience with this Ukrainian buffer on their western border will not change. It is more than the policy of Putin, but the vast majority of the Russian people, especially after decades of the west demonizing everything Russian.

NATO and the war mongers in Washington wanted an enemy and now they have created one, and are on their way to creating a second in China. Biden recently stated the U.S. is the only superpower and seems to be ready to test that premise.  It is time for sane people in congress to stop this rush to destruction.

Is NATO signalling nuclear attack on Russia imminent?

 ATTACKS ON RUSSIA'S ICBM EARLY WARNING SYSTEM DANGEROUS MOVE

WHAT WILL BE RUSSIA'S RESPONSE?

In recent days there have been attacks on 2 of Russia's 10 early warning sites deep inside Russia. The sites are of no consequence in the Ukraine conflict, but are part of Russia's strategic nuclear defense. It is a very dangerous escalation that could have sudden a disastrous consequences.

While these attacks came from Ukraine soil they were made with NATO and probably U.S. weapons and very likely manned by NATO or U.S. personnel. They were also guided and targeted by NATO military personnel. This can only signal to Russia that they are attempting to blind Russia to an ICBM attack particularly from a southern base, since these sites were in the south of Russia. This could be submarine based or from some other base south of Russia.

While this may be just another attempt to frighten Russia into a hoped for capitulation, it is a very dangerous bluff, if that is what this is all about.  From Russia's view it is a direct existential threat and it likely forcing them to take the steps necessary to respond to such an attack. This escalation will put the Russian's on a hair trigger for all an out nuclear response. It will not force Russia to end the war, but to prepare for all out confrontation.

While it seems western media and the U.S. congress are focusing on Trump trials and coming elections, U.S. strategists are moving the world into a situation that can very easily lead to disaster. It seems that is now almost destiny, as we continually see delusional and of touch decisions in high places.

Georgia overturns veto of "Foreign agents law."

 GEORGIA UNDER EXTREME PRESSURE TO ENTER WAR

IT IS IN GEORGIA'S BEST INTEREST TO REMAIN NEUTRAL

The EU and the U.S. are threatening Georgia with sanctions and pressuring it to take sides in the Ukraine conflict. The west has been pressuring them to enforce sanctions and to even open a southern front by actively engaging Russia militarily. Does Georgia really want to risk becoming another Ukraine?

Georgia's law just wants any NGO that receives over 20% of its financing from a foreign country to register and reveal its funding amounts and sources. Why is transparency not good for Georgia? The U.S. has such a law since 1938.

It has been estimated that there over 25,000 foreign financed Non governmental organizations in Georgia. With a population of 3.8 million that is an NGO for every 160 Georgian's. If each NGO employs 6 workers that is 150,000 of the population. Everyone receiving a wage by a foreign political organization, often above the average wage of the domestic population. So, it makes it very clear why these entities can muster large demonstrations and protests. Most of these organizations are financed by the EU and the United States. If Georgia takes sides in the war they will be the ones doing the dying.

The pressure on the west on any country that wishes to stay neutral in today's global political conflict must be overwhelming for these often poor and small countries. If the west wants war with Russia, then go and declare war, and let these poor countries, who would just like to stay out of international politics, alone.

While Ukraine is obviously losing this NATO financed and orchestrated war it seems that the west is still on the escalation track, encouraging more attacks on Russia and attempting to encourage more troops for Ukraine. France is sending supposed trainers. The UK is considering conscription after the next election. Germany is talking conscription, can the U.S. be far behind.

A neutral and non aligned Ukraine would have provided a security buffer for Russia and the west. A prosperous Ukraine, stable energy for all and most of all peace.  Any future war with Russia and NATO will end in global catastrophe. Not maybe, but for sure. Russia will not accept NATO in the Ukraine. Period. This situation has not changed since 2008. It seems to some, global catastrophe is better than admitting to a delusional and stupid plan.

THE COMING COLLAPSE OF DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM

THE COMING COLLAPSE OF DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISM

THE QUESTION IS NOT IF, BUT WHEN? 

 

Watching the news we see economic crises worldwide. While we are not currently in a major downturn, we have been sort of treading water for the last 8 years. The  underlying problems with most economies, particularly western Europe and the United States, have not improved. In fact, the amount of debt and the future ability to deal with a downturn is a lot more unstable than before. The amount of debt held by Western countries, businesses and individuals, has actually increased since 2007. This election year we hear from some who believe if we just raise taxes on the wealthy all will be well. Others contend that all will be well if we can just instill confidence that a solution is near. Sorry. All will not be well. Taxes would have to be doubled in most cases, which will cause an economic collapse, or government spending would have to be cut in half, which will also cause a collapse.

Of course the problem is that there has been an accumulation of extraordinary debt by all governments, corporations, and individuals. There is not a precedent for this situation in human history. While the housing bubble was the symptom that was burst, when gas rose to $4.00 a gallon, in the US the massive debts held by everyone was the real problem. Debts of individuals can be traced to central banks that have not been willing to clear excess debts since the early 1980’s. Instead, they have encouraged and enabled individuals to borrow beyond their means to repay. We now see a classic debt collapse scenario where people are having a hard time servicing the debt they have and banks are raising standards to stop losses...with the economy stagnating until the debts are reduced to normal levels. This may take decades rather than years. 　

A far bigger problem is the debt of governments, particularly in Western Europe and the US. These debts are a direct result of massive spending and the whole idea of democratic socialism where votes were bought by promising unsustainable benefits...to individuals, spending on projects, surveys, studies, ad nauseum... to the well connected. When fulfilling these promises could not be sustained by raising taxes they just borrowed the money to be consumed. The spending on projects, etc. is more easily addressed by just saying "NO"...BUT the spending on benefits is much more difficult to address. The real culprit in all this is that socialism has been a dismal failure whenever it has been tried. I should qualify that by distinguishing between voluntary and involuntary socialism.

Voluntary socialism is self limiting. An example is fire insurance. If the incidence of loss becomes excessive, premiums go up and some people may refuse to buy insurance. If losses become excessive insurance companies may refuse to enter that market. There are natural limits for both parties.

The first instance of collectivist failure was recorded in the New Testament. The early Christians, thinking that the end was near, sold there possessions, dined together and shared with each other. It was not long until Paul, hearing complaints from the responsible members of the community, wrote to them saying, “He who does not work shall not eat.” Human nature and the voluntary basis of this experiment was a natural remedy.

Another example was the Puritans who landed in Plymouth in 1620. They formed the, "Mayflower Compact," an agreement to share all property and work in common. After 3 years of this experiment, they were barely able to survive. The Puritan's endeavor had been financed by investors in Europe who hoped they would reap a profit by the Puritans repaying their debts with furs and other goods. After 3 years of no return, investors refused to send any more support and the idea was scrapped. The Puritans then distributed land to each family and they were on their own - the result was the beginning of prosperity for all.  It was chronicled by William Bradford that while the number of people who were either too weak or incapable of work grew, and the young and motivated were increasingly unhappy with the communal arrangement, many who formally were unable to add much to the community instantly became more productive when they were able to keep the fruits of their labor.

Remember the 1960’s  communes, where a few self motivated people bought a ranch and lived off the land? It was not long until they were supporting a larger and larger number of new disciples, who agreed it was wonderful, except for the motivation part. Again it ended in a natural turn of events and human nature.

Now to involuntary socialism. Of course the greatest example has to be the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. This experiment was immediate total government control that in the end was a dramatic failure. It may take Russia several generations to recover from the debacle. While touted by Socialists as the wonderful system of the future, (including Eleanor Roosevelt who visited the country many times in the 1930s when the worst atrocities were being committed), Solzhenitsyn and others saw and reported the true nature of the experiment. It's interesting to note that from the revolution in the USSR in 1917 to its collapse in 1989 was 72 years. If we take 1935 as the "embrace of socialism" in western Europe and the US, we end up at 2007. Does it take roughly this long for the failures of socialism to become unsustainable? While we have not had total control by the governments of western Europe or the US, we have been progressing in that direction for decades...hence the term progressivism. It has been a slow incremental movement that has taken control of most industries through regulation and has encouraged dependency by promising a safety net to those displaced by their policies. The part of the private sector that has not been effectively controlled by the government is the food and energy sector. They are in the process of taking over the energy sector and when they can control food they will have complete control of the economy and the people. Remember the winners of socialist economies are the ruling class who often live well off on what they skim off of the redistribution schemes. Even in the Soviet Union they lived well in their dachaus and had access to  travel and benefits that could only be dreamed of by the rest of the population.

While it all appears wonderful in theory, Unchangeable Human Nature has not been taken into account. Humans will help each other to some extent, but most will not jeopardize their or their families well-being for others. On a voluntary basis, many are willing to help those in need, in danger, etc. but as soon as it becomes involuntary, there will be resistance. This is just the nature of human survival instincts. While it may not measure up to the expectations of the ideologues of socialism, it is probably superior to all other organisms on earth. The Soviet experiment ended when there were no longer any incentives left. The Russians who have weathered one form of dictatorship for their whole existence were noted to remark to each other, "We pretend to work, and they pretend to pay us." In the end the only prospering part of the economy was the black market and flea markets.

So what has happened in every case of involuntary socialism?  Those who believe they are taxed too much will resist by finding ways to pay less; those who believe they are restricted in some way will find ways around the restrictions. Too much tax will usually create less revenue, etc. At first this is accepted or minimally enforced, but as the deficits grow, enforcement must increase and we see a cycle of increased enforcement, then less activity, then less revenue and if left to follow a linear path to forced labor and slavery.

In the U.S. there was once a work ethic and pride of self reliance - many would not accept charity -but after decades of increasing regulation and taxation it seems all restraint has fallen off and everyone will take and pursue more benefits, even if liquidating assets and claiming poverty is necessary. The dam has broken. The tipping point has been reached. It will not likely be restored by government action, or by acts of Congress; the same applies to Western Europe.

So what is the solution? At this point there is no easy solution. All solutions will require much pain and suffering. It may be limited by economic suffering and the necessary austerity to liquidate the debt and begin a new start with liberty and self reliance the foundation...OR...it may be that more enforcement will be needed until we return to feudal type society where basic necessities will be provided to the productive and compliant and those that do not conform will be eliminated from society by the powers that be. This is the question that will be answered when the coming collapse reaches its fulfillment.

originally published 2/11/2016

update 9/1/22   We are about to see the fulfillment of this narrative, possibly within months in Western Europe and then on to the U.S.

update 3/10/2023  We see the new budget is increased by 1 Trillion dollars. Debt of over 31 Trillion. Inflation destroying buying power. It is all unsustainable. 

update 11/16/2023, all the problems are now more severe, $34 trillion debt, $2 trillion deficit. Bond market in trouble. Any attempts to fiscal responsibility labeled extreme. 

update 5/24/2024, U.S. now incurring debt at the rate of $1 trillion every 100 days. Gold $2450 oz. While all seems well, it is all unsustainable, Economic crisis on the horizon.

Georgia's foreign agents law hypocrisy.

 U.S. HAS FOREIGN AGENTS LAW SINCE 1938

GOOD FOR U.S. BUT NOT FOR GEORGIA

Western countries are expressing outrage that the Republic of Georgia has passed a "foreign agents law". The law was vetoed by the President, but is expected to be overridden by the parliament. The U.S. and western countries are threatening to impose sanctions and other measures if the law is passed. a very hypocritical and intrusive policy.

The law does not outlaw foreign money to be used by Non governmental organizations, but requires it to be transparent and the donors identified and amounts disclosed to the citizens. This would apply to all organizations receiving more than 20 % of their funds from foreign sources.

Since the independence of many of these eastern European nations, much U.S. and western money has flooded into these countries to change the politics to be more favorable to the west. The United States has allocated over $9 billion for this purpose for this year. Organizations that promise to promote democracy and other well sounding messages funnel money to dissidents or create dissidents to overthrow the existing governments, even those with a democratic election process. It has been verified that the U.S. funneled as much as $5 billion dollars in support of the Ukrainian Maidan revolution that was the beginning of the current disaster in Ukraine. I suspect the idea is to open a southern front in Georgia that could be a disaster in the long run for the people of Georgia.

Georgia, Hungary, Serbia, Slovakia, Austria and India have abstained from military support for Ukraine, having expressed a desire to remain neutral in this conflict. While they have supported Ukraine with humanitarian aid, it is not an acceptable policy for the west and continuous pressure to submit from many sources is underway, including foreign internal influence. This is why this law was passed.

The United States has such a law since 1938 and has repeatedly been used against political adversaries even when no foreign money was involved. Just another instance of U.S. hypocrisy in its foreign policy. 

I would expect that all citizens should have the knowledge who is funding organizations operating on their sovereign soil, especially when they are involved in the internal politics of their nations. 

 

Desperation increases as Trump continues to rise.

 ACCUSATIONS AND PROPAGANDA GETS MORE DELUSIONAL

TRUMP POLICIES HAVE NOT HURT ANY AMERICANS

The entrenched bureaucracy and its supporters feel that they must discredit Trump in any way possible. Those who depend on the government to keep them seem to be the most virulent opponents of Trump's policies, policies that are mostly not used in their attacks. Their attacks are fashioned in a way to make Trump into some evil villain, who has no redeeming qualities, the most despicable man on earth. 

Just this week a film at the Cannes film festival portrayed Trump raping his former wife. An accusation that was made and retracted during a divorce proceedings. Of course this film is made after his former wife is no longer able to testify in a defamation case. A case that will most likely not go anywhere in the EU, where Trump fear is as bad as in the U.S. This film is just another election year travesty in the 10 year assault on Trump, for daring to run for president, without the approval of the bureaucracy. Much of this is a message to anyone who should dare to challenge their control over who can be a candidate for President.

We have actually witnessed the destruction of the credibility of many institutions of this country from the legal system, election system, media and government officials, all in an attempt to discredit Trump. It seems it is the old Machiavellian theory that you do not assassinate a populist leader, but humiliate, discredit and cast him as inhuman and despicable, so far it has not worked. Their outrageous attacks are so obviously over the top that it seems the more they attack, the more Trump increase his support. Can we we expect that if this continues, they will resort to the more direct and primitive way of maintaining their power.

Trump's mere presence has indeed exposed them all. The power hungry, greedy and corrupt, that seem to be running most of the world's governments today. They are going to fail in the end, but sadly it appears they will take us all down with them.

Zelensky's term ends: Now what?

 ZELENSKY IS NO LONGER THE ELECTED PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE

TERM ENDED MAY 20, 2024

Volodymyr Zelensky was elected in April 2019 and was sworn in on May 20. 2019 for a 5 year term. On Feb. 24 the 2022 Zelensky declared martial law and suspended all elections until 6 months after the end of hostilities. The parliament has agreed to this situation.

The fact that Zelensky is no longer considered by many as the legitimate president of Ukraine will likely have some consequences in the future. The war is not likely to be over for some time, so elections will not be able to be held for possibly years. 

Russia has stated that Zelensky is now not protected and is a legitimate military target. The expected candidates for the presidency may very well now push for elections, and the military, which seems to be increasingly less supportive, may have ideas of their own.

Zelensky should have allowed elections in those provinces not in the conflict zone, it would have been an opportunity to show his support among the electorate and would have also given him an out if they no longer support him. It would have also demonstrated to the world that Ukraine is really a democracy. With this situation it opens up many paths for intrigue and instability.

It can now be expected that internal conflicts within the government will become more intense. Zelensky originally ran on coming to an agreement with Russia on their festering disputes, but shortly after his election he took a hard line adversarial position with Russia. Elections would have demonstrated whether he still had support of the electorate. With a void of a way to express that support or non-support it will likely create dangerous alternatives.

Zelensky now believes west never wanted Ukraine win.

 INCREMENTAL ESCALATION TO KEEP UKRAINE IN FIGHT

GOAL WAS TO WEAKEN RUSSIA

The charade is still ongoing, keep Ukraine fighting, give them just enough to hold on, but never enough to win. A Ukrainian win would be very dangerous to the world order, but a weakened impotent Russia will help to maintain western supremacy. It seems that has been the plan from the beginning and both Russia and Ukraine have suffered greatly from the great Ukraine project.

After 27 months of war, it is now very clear, Ukraine can not prevail in this conflict. Russia is probably stronger than when the war started. The west is probably now weaker than when this war started.

When this conflict began Russia had less than 200 thousand soldiers, never enough to conquer Ukraine and hold the territory.  The Russian goal was to force negotiations for a neutral Ukraine and to keep NATO off its doorstep. The wests goal was to tie up Russia and bleed it in the hope of some kind of internal revolution. The best laid plans can often go astray.

If the west would have given Ukraine what it eventually gave them after this conflict started, they could have pushed Russia back to its borders. Russia had a small army, without combat experience and not very well organized. The reality is no one wanted Russia to actually lose or Ukraine to win, just to weaken Russia and hopefully to open it up for exploitation, Ukraine was the tool or hammer to achieve that goal. 

Russia has survived everything that the west has thrown at it, economic warfare at every level, continuous warfare on their border, but it is now stronger and better equipped and with an army of over 1.3 million. It has also resigned itself to an economic divorce from the west and is looking to and swiftly moving into economic alliances to the east and south. This reality will have dire economic repercussions to Europe and to the western world.

So the charade is continuing, but clearly just that. Ukraine will not become a member of NATO or the EU. Rumors or threats of NATO troops is just more smoke to keep Ukraine fighting, hopefully until after the upcoming elections. New NATO members are warned by western intelligence,  Russia will invade them, its goal is to rule the world. The reality is, Russia does not need more real estate, it just wants real security on its borders.

The west hopes Ukraine will indeed fight to the last Ukrainian, and if their hoped for miracle of weakening Russia does not happen, then move on to the next plan to rule the world.

China, Russia solidify economic cooperation.

 LONG TERM CONTRACTS ON ENERGY AND RESOURCES

UNMATCHED MUTUALLY BENEFICIAL AGREEMENTS

If you want to understand the relationship with Russia and China, just look at a map. With a border measuring over 2600 miles it is only natural that a friendly and economically beneficial arrangement would be in the best interests of both countries. This arrangement will also benefit all those countries that are adjacent to these borders. The recently enacted long term contracts on energy will give both partners a secure future, Russia, a steady income for some of their vast petroleum reserves and China a secure source of energy for their vast manufacturing capability.

Russia is also a leader in nuclear energy, not just the basic resources, but the technology of modern efficient nuclear reactors that will be marketed around the world. Chinese manufacturing and Russian technology will be a potent team that will not likely be challenged by any western powers at this time.

While western Europe and the U.S. have undertaken a policy of sanctions and isolation toward both Russia and China, the effect in the long term will be the isolation of the west from what is expected to be a growing economic prosperity in the rest of the world. the west comprises of about 1 billion people, the rest is now 6 billion, a vast market that has much more growth potential.

While many claim that Russia and China are plotting to displace the western world, the reality is they are just focusing on friendly mutually beneficial relationships without ideological agendas. So far, their approach has a very good chance of becoming the economic plan for the future.

The United States is in the enviable position of being protected by large oceans on most of its borders, It has the resources to be a self sustaining world power. It is in fact squandering its position by attempting to rule the world and impose its rule over everyone, it is failing. It is weakened by excess debt, internal division and a lack of any real objective view of the world. It still believes it can rule by intimidation and force, but the reality is the rest of the world is moving on.

Western Europe's chances of prosperity a very dim, they have adopted suicidal economic and cultural policies that leave them with only a declining economic future. Both the United States and western Europe still believe that they are essential to the economic well being of the rest of the world. While that may be partly true today, it is going to be very short term as the rest of the world is moving on.

The BRICS group has recently introduced BRICS pay to replace the western Swift settlement system. While it is still in its infancy it will free those who desire to escape economic sanctions and manipulation. 

Russia has recently opened the Moscow gold exchange which will provide a trading platform for the major gold producers which most are already in the BRICS groups. Presently the world gold price is set by the London exchange which is accused of market manipulation by thousand of contracts that actually represent more gold than there is in existence.  

It is a fact that the world is changing quickly and dramatically. the west is losing its leverage to control its direction by its present policies. Its best hope is a resignation that it will require more respect for others and hope to coexist in a mutually beneficial cooperation. It will require an inward housecleaning to prepare these counties for this new future.

Is Fico assassination attempt a warning against neutrality?

THREATS AND SANCTIONS, NOW VIOLENCE

KEEPING THE HERD CORRALLED

Yesterday, was the first assassination attempt in the EU in many years, sadly it most likely will not be the last. Prime minister Robert Fico was shot several times as he talked to people after a meeting in Slovakia. He has been under obvious pressure for his refusal to send more military support to Ukraine. He, like a few others has taken the position that he would keep his country out of the Ukraine conflict and wished to remain neutral. Those who dare to take a neutral position have been subjected to enormous pressure to join ranks with the majority. 

Viktor Orban, of Hungary, has also been under enormous pressure, he also wants to keep his country out of this conflict and then of course he is labeled an ally of Russia, never someone looking out for the best interests of his country over the collective in Brussels and Washington.

Neutrality has historically been the often admired position of such countries as Switzerland and Sweden, but that is no longer acceptable. Neutrality is now considered the enemy of the power centers in Brussels, London and Washington. Sweden has recently dropped its historic neutrality and Switzerland continues to be pressured.

Other targets of this pressure is Modi in India and of course the former president of Pakistan, Imran Khan, who was removed with a no confidence vote with documented pressure from Washington. When he continued to campaign for reelection, being the most popular candidate in Pakistan, he was shot in an assassination attempt, then finally jailed before the election. It is all a sad commentary on the state of REAL democracy, so often used as a slogan without real substance.

It is very likely the instances of political violence will increase in Europe and very likely in Ukraine, as the now president Zelinsky's legal term ends in 4 days. With elections cancelled and political opposition banned it will somewhere end with increased internal conflict that can no longer be settled at the ballot box.

It is obvious that Democracy is now pretty much just a window dressing on the growing authoritarian powers in the western world.

Democrats now shift inflation blame to "Corporate gouging"

 PLAN TO FIX IT BY GOVERNMENT FINES AND PENALTIES

EXPECT MORE INFLATION TO COME

Democrats have now realized that inflation is becoming an election year problem. Of course, in the Marxist tradition, business is always a handy villain to blame for the results of their own policies. 

Business has been savaged by high energy prices a result of Democrat policy since inauguration day in 2021. Shortages of workers and pushes for high wages has increased the overhead of all businesses, that is eventually paid for by the end consumer.

Shortages of many materials and delays have also raised the cost of most all goods, many of these shortages can also be traced to be the results of trade policies that are attempting to use trade a bargaining chip. This accompanied by sanctions placed on many foreign suppliers have raised the costs of most everything. 

Then there is the unprecedented and unsustainable deficit spending that is resulting in $1 trillion of additional debt every 100 days. This lowers the buying power of the dollar and results in increased INFLATION. It also raise interest rates which also raises the costs to every business that use seasonal credit or credit for expansion or upgrades. 

Every policy of the present crop of Democrat politicians is inflationary and there is no end in sight. Americans better buckle up, because the policies are still underway and may not be able to be reversed for years. The reality is that inflation is most likely going to increase and be sustained for the foreseeable future.

High prices and inflation is not being caused by business, they are just as much victims of inflation as everyone, but it all ends up on the bill of the end user. Eventually the bill for unrestrained spending ends up with consumer as all these inflation causing policies are paid by the last man in the supply line. YOU.

Russia opens northern offensive. Ukraine's days are numbered.

 RUSSIA MAKES LARGE GAINS IN KHARKIV

DRAMATICALLY EXPANDS CONFLICT LINE

The much anticipated Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region has finally happened. It should be no surprise, as many have been predicting that this would occur soon after the annual victory day celebrations in Moscow. The question is what is Russia's strategy with this expansion of the conflict line. One is that Russia has wanted to push the Ukrainians away from being in range of its southern cities that have been targeted by Ukraine. The other is they will soon be within artillery range of Kharkiv city, this will add to the bombing and rocket attacks that have been effective at evacuating the 2nd largest city in Ukraine. 

While some believe that Russia will soon assault Kharkiv city, it is doubtful. They so far have used a light force for this attack, not enough for an assault on the city, but enough to cause Ukraine to send reserves from other places in the conflict area. It is likely they are just stretching the Ukrainians thinner and will take advantage of that situation wherever it is made available. 

It would not be surprising if Russia also opened some sort of offensive in the Kherson region, particularly if Ukraine takes troops from that area. 

The reality is that Russia has 100's of thousands of reserve forces waiting in western Russia and the Ukrainians literally have no reserves. Their army is exhausted and on the verge of collapse. It appears they will not be able to maintain this defense much longer.

Russia on the other hand seems content to make just incremental gains and keep decimating the Ukrainian army and equipment. They may feel that if they continue in this strategy they can prevail without even fighting urban conflicts in Kharkiv or Kiev. Ukraine is now on borrowed time, unless NATO comes to their rescue with troops on the ground. Another reason Russia wants to keep the fight in eastern Ukraine. If NATO wants to fight with Russia they will need to do it on Russia's terms 700 miles from Poland, but near to Russia's supply lines. A situation that has been the downfall of many armies in the past.

The results of, "The post industrial society".

 THE WEST IS A POST INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY

CAN IT BE REVERSED?

In 1971 the book, "The post industrial society " became a bestseller. It predicted that we were in the beginning of a new era were the United States would become the hi-technology leader and would no longer be a manufacturing based economy. I read this book and believed at the time that such a society would not be possible and that if it did happen it would inevitably lead to an economic disaster. Today, now over 50 years later we are indeed in a post industrial society.

While this book was indeed prophetic or the author Alain Touraine had special access to the machinations of the thought leaders of the time, many still discount that we are now in a post industrial or manufacturing society. 

We were told that the United States was going to be the Hi-tech center of the world and that globalization will let the others manufacture the results of that technology. While that may not have been the conclusion in that book, it became the many repeated litany we heard for decades.

Some like Ross Perot and Patrick Buchanan warned of the giant sucking sound of manufacturing jobs that would be leaving the nation. They were routinely labeled racists, anti-Semitic or any other label that would attempt to discount their warnings. 

While we witnessed the steady evaporation of all jobs that made things, from clothing, shoes, basic necessities to even steel mills and foundries, it was a slow process that did not immediately shock the populace. 

Basic economics always taught that wealth was created by the combination of raw material and labor to produce a product of greater wealth than the  input of those resources. Manufacturing was the income side of the national ledger and everything else, especially government was on the expense side. 

While high tech did become a major part of the U.S. economy, it was always short lived. It is only hi-tech for several years, if not months, as those with the growing wealth and manufacturing base would quickly incorporate that high tech to the income side of their ledger. While we were expanding our expense side of the ledger by buying our necessities from abroad and feeding a growing government appetite to often camouflage the results of the wealth leaving the country. Redistribution taking the place of wealth creation. The results can only be a declining wealth of the nation.

While many say times are good and and we are all doing well, don't forget that the present economy if maintained by debt of $34 Trillion that is growing daily and also consumer and corporate debt that is unprecedented in history. Net worth is always assets minus debt, many have no net worth.

The Ukraine conflict should be a an eye opening moment in western economic reality. Russia, the gas station economy of the world, shocked the present western leadership by being able, even with unprecedented sanctions, to out produce the combined production of the west in military hardware and supplies. Any serious economist should have been able to note that 40% of the economies of Russia and China are made up of manufacturing, but the west is near 10%. Russia has a near equal manufacturing ability as the U.S. and China had 5x the manufacturing capability of the U.S.. 

While the loss of wealth creation is one effect of this situation the other is the loss of the knowledge and the common sense that is acquired by being involved in the manufacturing process. In todays specialized world many no longer have the basic common knowledge to navigate basic living. They are dependent on the service industry to do most basic household functions. The lack of this kind of knowledge and experience makes rational decisions about the real world more difficult. This is manifest in election decisions and also in the leadership of the country who no longer have the basic knowledge of the real world to help in making serious decisions. Emotions and high hopes take the place of sound economic and long term planning for a prosperous future.

If the U.S. would decide that it needed to become self sufficient in manufacturing and seriously begin now it would take 30 years to be accomplished. I suspect such a decision will more likely be debated for the next 30 years. 

Are western leaders incompetent or intentionally destructive?

 JUST STUPID SHOULD HAVE A 50% SUCCESS RATE

IS IT POSSIBLE TO MAKE SO MANY HORRIBLE DECISIONS?

It is somewhat bewildering to watch the decision making coming out of the U.S. and western Europe. We watch as Europe with their green policies, immigration,  and disputes with Russia and China are actually deindustrializing their countries. The reality is that without manufacturing a country will soon descend into third world living conditions and then the green agenda will soon become the last thing people are thinking about.

In the United States we watch as the borders are intentionally left wide open in an obvious attempt to change the electorate in favor of the Marxist agenda. At the same time we witness no restraint on spending, handing out money all over the world, mostly by increasing the debt to a point were the only options will be default or hyper inflation, both ending in economic collapse or crisis. Is it just stupidity and incompetence or is this the agenda for a new world government of some sort. The reality is that all these policies are not in the best interest of these countries and certainly not in the best interest of the citizens.

We still remember Obama's famous declaring the "fundamental transformation of America". It is certainly true that America is being transformed, but we don't really know into what. 

In foreign policy the United States is in reality at war with much of the world. In a shooting war with Russia, Iran, Syria and other low level operations in dozens of countries. Economic war with China, the BRICS group and dozens of countries in eastern Europe, South America and Asia. Political war with India, Brazil, Pakistan, Venezuela, Israel, Hungary, Turkey, Serbia, Belarus and lots of places in Africa. Some are combinations of political and economic, some will become violent if necessary. All are about the United States and its paid for allies ruling the world and forcing the rest of the world into some new social, economic and political submission. The United States foreign policy is not just stupid or incompetent, but actually consistent for now 30 years and would better be classified as just evil. It has resulted in millions of deaths and economic catastrophe for many of its targets.

It seems that there has been an unholy alliance between the neocon "Rule the world crowd" and the perpetual marxist revolutionaries. The left now will support any intervention or war and the neocons look the other way while the Marxists destroy the domestic tranquility and stability of the nation. They both come out in unison to denounce any opposition as Putin allies, white supremacists, Christian nationalists or any other handle they think will discredit their opinion.

While the actual future looks dim and uncertain, there is one reality that is obvious, the present direction is unsustainable and in danger of imploding at anytime. Do the Marxists and neocons really see a joint endeavor or will it inevitably end with the destruction of one by the other. Just another possibility, when it all comes apart.

The dangerous results of amatuer and ideological diplomats.

 FOOLS AND IDEOLOGS HAVE BLUNDERED INTO GLOBAL WAR

WORST CROP OF WESTERN DIPLOMATS IN HISTORY

Every day we inch closer to another war or threat of escalated and expanded war. It is not just fate or an accident of history, but the prevalence of immature political operatives in high places, particularly in the western world. In just 3 short years we have witnessed the increased hostility and instability not seen since WW2. It is the result of the poorest diplomacy in history. a lack of empathy for the concerns of other nations, driven either by hubris or just plain ideological hatred and delusional calculations rather than realistic solutions. This is accompanied by very little scrutiny of the press to reveal the disasters in the making.

Listening is replaced by threats and intimidation, this must be based in an unrealistic delusional reliance on force being the answer to every problem.  Then we have the long contrived plans to either damage or overthrow other governments, which in the last few decades has become a standard practice of the United States and some NATO countries. It may have worked well in places like Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan but the game is now up and it is becoming a lot less effective, especially with peer competitors and adversaries. The practice of bluster and bluffing is common practice and the big mistake is they also assume their competitors are doing the same. A recipe for global disaster.

The Ukraine conflict was a planned operation by the western powers, knowing Russia's history and concern for security on their western border, they knew that NATO expansion to include Ukraine would result in military conflict. If they listened rather than dismissed the concerns of Russia they would have known. They knew, but concluded that Russia was weak, a gas station masquerading as a country, and delusionally concluded they could collapse the government, dismember the country and exploits it resources. A dangerous miscalculation that they now refuse to admit and seek an alternative.

Now the Hubris takes over and they fear political damage, what is the message to China, Iran and North Korea? They state that they must prevail or they will be discredited and their standing in the world will diminish. The truth is,  the message is the western world is governed by fools and their standing is diminishing by the day and if their policies are not reversed they may take the whole world's economic system and even civilization down with it.

The real truth is only wise and mature diplomats can admit error and deal with it in a rational way. Fools and the immature can never admit miscalculation, it is always the others who are the villains. 

These policies need to be reversed, it most likely will never be accomplished with the present leaders. There needs to be serious recalculation with new leadership in the U.S. and the EU. A new view toward cooperation and coexistence rather than insisting on global hegemony and resulting catastrophe.

Russia responds to western trash talkers.

 SIGNALS PIVOTAL DECISIONS BEING MADE

 EUROPEAN WAR OR NEGOTIATION

This week we witnessed Russia beginning drills of its tactical weapons teams. This was accompanied with an explanation that it was in response to western talk of escalation in Ukraine. Then the ambassadors of France, UK and the United States were called in for a meeting. It has been revealed that following remarks by Macron of France that they were sending troops to Ukraine, David Cameron remarked that UK long range missiles used in Ukraine had no restrictions on being used deep into Russia, the continual talk of F-16s by the U.S. and the Democrat leader talking of U.S. troops to Ukraine, Russia felt it was time to make its position clear.

France was told that any French troops in Ukraine will immediately be targeted by Russia. U.K. was informed that any UK missiles used against Russian homeland will be considered an act of aggression by Britain and will require a response on British bases. The United States was informed that if any F-16's fly out of NATO countries against Russia, those bases will be targeted. It seems it was conveyed officially as the Russian position and not just a threat. 

France responded by saying that France was not at war with Russia, and that they are not sending troops to Ukraine. The Uk made no response, but Italy and Poland made it clear that they were not sending troops to Ukraine.

The reality is that there are U.S. French, British and Polish troops in Ukraine. while they may be classified as private contractors, they are providing technical,  surveillance, targeting and other services to Ukraine. These troops are often quartered in hotels and are already a target of Russian missiles.

We will see if this will lead to restraint by western politicians who just love the media attention of making threats against Russia. It does nothing other than just increase the hostility and may eventually end in dire consequences for everyone.

Ukraine Conflict: Denial over, Reality now, Hard choices next.

 INCREMENTAL ESCALATION HAS NOT WORKED

UKRAINE LACKS MANPOWER AND RESOURCES

The last two years have been a time of denial by NATO, denying that Russia was prevailing in this conflict with Ukraine. It has now become obvious that Russia is now in the dominant position and is slowly but steadily devastating the Ukrainian ability to resist. 

The reality is that NATO cannot keep up with the drain of military equipment and ammunition being expended in this conflict. The reality is that Ukraine cannot provide the necessary manpower to be able to, not only to move the Russians back, but even to defend the rest of the country. While many Ukrainians are still fighting valiantly, victory is not a possibility. This is now a desperate situation and it is not  a sports contest where a "Hail Mary" move will turn the tide. While there may be days for rejoicing,  the reality is this present situation is coming to an end.

Now, we see France attempting to find others to send troops to Ukraine, they will be targeted and die along with the Ukrainians. It is estimated that since January 1, Ukraine has lost another 111,000 men. It is estimated that they lose 1,000 troops a day.

The reality is without airpower they can never prevail, this is more true today than it was last year with the great counter-offensive. The reality is that without NATO declaring war on Russia and entering this conflict all out, Ukraine will not last until this election season or year is ended.

Unable to deny, unable for Ukraine to continue will require hard choices, ultimate all out war or admit defeat and enter into serious negotiations along the proposals rejected in 2022 in Turkey. 

The reality is, Russia is not going to repatriate those 4 provinces that they now consider part of Russia, nor of course, Crimea. The best that Ukraine can hope for is a demilitarized, neutral country, no NATO membership and smaller than it was in 2022. That is the best, if that is even possible.

It is unlikely that Russia can negotiate with the present leaders of France, Germany the UK or the U.S. all have proved to be unreliable partners in negotiation.  First concerning NATO expansion in 1990's, then the Minx accords which they never intended to take seriously, but were just buying time to prepare for war. Then the Russian proposal for a neutral Ukraine in December of 2021 that they rejected with hubris and insults.

Sadly, there most likely will not be any negotiations at this time. Russia will not stop, so as to let Ukraine rearm and regroup. Ukraine  and NATO will need to beg for peace, seriously and unconditionally. a very bitter pill to swallow.

So the hard choice time is here, all out war, possibly nuclear, or humiliating resignation that the Ukraine project was an ill advised and dreadful failure.

U.S. and Russian military share airbase in Niger.

 FRENCH AND U.S. FORCES ASKED TO LEAVE SEVERAL CENTRAL AFRICAN COUNTRIES

RUSSIAN FORCES MOVING IN

This week 60 Russian military personnel arrived in the Niger 101 airbase. The United States has 2 bases in Niger the 101 and the 201 which cost over $100 million. The government of Niger has asked the U.S. to remove its forces from the country. Chad has also asked the U.S. to remove its troops from their country.

Recently French troops have been asked to leave neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso. It is expected that U.S. troops will also be asked to leave. The United States has 29 bases in Africa.

Russian troops have also arrived in Mali. It seems that these countries believe they will get a more promising deal for security and training from the Russians.

The present situation in Niger may be awkward as the relations between the Russia and the United States is at an all time low. The United States has 1000 troops in this base but it is assured that the two forces are not in contact with each other and are housed in separate areas. A two star U.S. general is expected to arrive shortly and arrange for the departure of the U.S. troops from this base.

In recent years many African countries are attempting to remove all former colonial European influence from the continent. The overthrow of the Government of Libya and the murder of  Muammar  Gaddafi, a popular figure, by NATO forces, mostly French and U.S. air power, kindled an alienation to western countries in many African countries. This, coupled with economic and infrastructure opportunities from China and security training and assistance by Russia is changing the alliances in much of Africa.

It appears that this trend will continue and escalate as more of these countries are expected to join the BRICS economic alliance.

New controversial foreign agent law in Georgia republic.

 DEMONSTRATIONS AS GEORGIA PASSES FOREIGN AGENT LAW

PRESIDENT PROMISES VETO, PARLIAMENT HAS VOTES TO OVERRIDE

A Law that requires that any Non-government organization that receives over 20% of its funding from foreign sources is required to register as a foreign agent has passed in the parliament. There are major demonstrations opposed to this law. A similar law was withdrawn last year after similar demonstrations.

The law is also opposed by the EU and other western nations. The law does not outlaw such organizations, but requires transparency as to the source of its funding. Many of the protesters are young citizens who have jobs related to these organizations, which often pay more than can be earned in domestic jobs.

It seems that Georgia is a target of many of these organizations that hope to move the politics of the country in a direction favorable to them. Much of the funding comes from the United States who has been using these organizations to organize opposition to governments around the world.

The reality is that the United States itself is often prosecuting people in this country for being an unregistered lobbyist of a foreign country. Often this has been the approach to organizing color revolution in many unaware foreign countries. It is no longer as easy as it once was to operate under the radar, as this practice has been revealed for an attempt to change governments in many parts of the world. The most notable has been Ukraine with Georgia also a target for regime change and an alliance with the EU and NATO, a move that would likely end in another disaster for their country.

I suspect that every western nation would be outraged if Non government organizations would be funded by China,  Russia or some other entity and would likely suffer a far more severe action than transparency.

Nations should focus on their own problems at home rather spending borrowed money to enact resolution and regime change in foreign countries that often results in death and the destruction of these countries.

Escalating trade war. End of globalization?

 TRADE WAR WITH CHINA, TWO EDGED SWORD

MANY WILL SUFFER ECONOMIC DECLINE

Last week we witnessed The U.S. again threatening China with trade sanctions for doing business with Russia. The U.S. is now claiming that Russia is prevailing because some are not willing to cut off trade as demanded by the U.S. This goes for India, China, and even Germany, which if it loses its Chinese business, after losing its Russian business, will be in dire straits.

When Trump imposed tariffs on imported Steel and Aluminum it was because it was becoming clear that the U.S. was about to lose its domestic steel and aluminum manufacturing, a series security issue.  Then Trump was criticized for negotiating with China for reciprocity on tariffs. Tariffs would be imposed on China if China had tariffs on U.S. products, the goal was not to eliminate trade but to fight for fair trade.

We now see that trade and economic sanctions are no longer about fair trade but an attempt to damage the economic viability of anyone who does not submit to U.S. demands. This is usually in a bellicose and openly hostile attitude that in many other cultures is an insult and a cause for rejection, just for the attitude.

Sanctions have had great effects on the EU which is now entering a recession, particularly Germany, the premiere manufacturing country in the EU. They do near 40% of their trade with China and if they lose that business, it will usher in a depression. 

The United States has restricted silicon chip sales to China, and the chip business in the U.S. is not only losing much of its business with China, but China has now begun manufacturing their own chips and underselling the U.S. makers. 

Trump negotiated a trade deal where China promised to buy U.S. grain to lower the great trade deficit, China has now dropped U.S. grain in favor of grain from  more friendly countries like Brazil and Russia. 

The U.S. is also threatening India and Brazil for not obeying the U.S. instructions on who they should trade with, it is a losing battle of whack-a-mole that will most likely end in reduced economic activity.

Whether we want to admit it or not the U.S and much of the world is dependent on manufactured products from China and a growing list of other countries. At the same time these countries can very well get along without anything that the U.S. makes, even military equipment. The reality is that U.S. no longer has the leverage it once had, and is now resorting to threats of domestic agitation or violence. A desperate attempt to hold its position of world leader when it no longer has the manufacturing base or even the unity at home to enforce these demands.