The results of, "The post industrial society".

 THE WEST IS A POST INDUSTRIAL SOCIETY

CAN IT BE REVERSED?

In 1971 the book, "The post industrial society " became a bestseller. It predicted that we were in the beginning of a new era were the United States would become the hi-technology leader and would no longer be a manufacturing based economy. I read this book and believed at the time that such a society would not be possible and that if it did happen it would inevitably lead to an economic disaster. Today, now over 50 years later we are indeed in a post industrial society.

While this book was indeed prophetic or the author Alain Touraine had special access to the machinations of the thought leaders of the time, many still discount that we are now in a post industrial or manufacturing society. 

We were told that the United States was going to be the Hi-tech center of the world and that globalization will let the others manufacture the results of that technology. While that may not have been the conclusion in that book, it became the many repeated litany we heard for decades.

Some like Ross Perot and Patrick Buchanan warned of the giant sucking sound of manufacturing jobs that would be leaving the nation. They were routinely labeled racists, anti-Semitic or any other label that would attempt to discount their warnings. 

While we witnessed the steady evaporation of all jobs that made things, from clothing, shoes, basic necessities to even steel mills and foundries, it was a slow process that did not immediately shock the populace. 

Basic economics always taught that wealth was created by the combination of raw material and labor to produce a product of greater wealth than the  input of those resources. Manufacturing was the income side of the national ledger and everything else, especially government was on the expense side. 

While high tech did become a major part of the U.S. economy, it was always short lived. It is only hi-tech for several years, if not months, as those with the growing wealth and manufacturing base would quickly incorporate that high tech to the income side of their ledger. While we were expanding our expense side of the ledger by buying our necessities from abroad and feeding a growing government appetite to often camouflage the results of the wealth leaving the country. Redistribution taking the place of wealth creation. The results can only be a declining wealth of the nation.

While many say times are good and and we are all doing well, don't forget that the present economy if maintained by debt of $34 Trillion that is growing daily and also consumer and corporate debt that is unprecedented in history. Net worth is always assets minus debt, many have no net worth.

The Ukraine conflict should be a an eye opening moment in western economic reality. Russia, the gas station economy of the world, shocked the present western leadership by being able, even with unprecedented sanctions, to out produce the combined production of the west in military hardware and supplies. Any serious economist should have been able to note that 40% of the economies of Russia and China are made up of manufacturing, but the west is near 10%. Russia has a near equal manufacturing ability as the U.S. and China had 5x the manufacturing capability of the U.S.. 

While the loss of wealth creation is one effect of this situation the other is the loss of the knowledge and the common sense that is acquired by being involved in the manufacturing process. In todays specialized world many no longer have the basic common knowledge to navigate basic living. They are dependent on the service industry to do most basic household functions. The lack of this kind of knowledge and experience makes rational decisions about the real world more difficult. This is manifest in election decisions and also in the leadership of the country who no longer have the basic knowledge of the real world to help in making serious decisions. Emotions and high hopes take the place of sound economic and long term planning for a prosperous future.

If the U.S. would decide that it needed to become self sufficient in manufacturing and seriously begin now it would take 30 years to be accomplished. I suspect such a decision will more likely be debated for the next 30 years.