Ukraine Conflict: Denial over, Reality now, Hard choices next.

 INCREMENTAL ESCALATION HAS NOT WORKED

UKRAINE LACKS MANPOWER AND RESOURCES

The last two years have been a time of denial by NATO, denying that Russia was prevailing in this conflict with Ukraine. It has now become obvious that Russia is now in the dominant position and is slowly but steadily devastating the Ukrainian ability to resist. 

The reality is that NATO cannot keep up with the drain of military equipment and ammunition being expended in this conflict. The reality is that Ukraine cannot provide the necessary manpower to be able to, not only to move the Russians back, but even to defend the rest of the country. While many Ukrainians are still fighting valiantly, victory is not a possibility. This is now a desperate situation and it is not  a sports contest where a "Hail Mary" move will turn the tide. While there may be days for rejoicing,  the reality is this present situation is coming to an end.

Now, we see France attempting to find others to send troops to Ukraine, they will be targeted and die along with the Ukrainians. It is estimated that since January 1, Ukraine has lost another 111,000 men. It is estimated that they lose 1,000 troops a day.

The reality is without airpower they can never prevail, this is more true today than it was last year with the great counter-offensive. The reality is that without NATO declaring war on Russia and entering this conflict all out, Ukraine will not last until this election season or year is ended.

Unable to deny, unable for Ukraine to continue will require hard choices, ultimate all out war or admit defeat and enter into serious negotiations along the proposals rejected in 2022 in Turkey. 

The reality is, Russia is not going to repatriate those 4 provinces that they now consider part of Russia, nor of course, Crimea. The best that Ukraine can hope for is a demilitarized, neutral country, no NATO membership and smaller than it was in 2022. That is the best, if that is even possible.

It is unlikely that Russia can negotiate with the present leaders of France, Germany the UK or the U.S. all have proved to be unreliable partners in negotiation.  First concerning NATO expansion in 1990's, then the Minx accords which they never intended to take seriously, but were just buying time to prepare for war. Then the Russian proposal for a neutral Ukraine in December of 2021 that they rejected with hubris and insults.

Sadly, there most likely will not be any negotiations at this time. Russia will not stop, so as to let Ukraine rearm and regroup. Ukraine  and NATO will need to beg for peace, seriously and unconditionally. a very bitter pill to swallow.

So the hard choice time is here, all out war, possibly nuclear, or humiliating resignation that the Ukraine project was an ill advised and dreadful failure.