Russia opens northern offensive. Ukraine's days are numbered.

 RUSSIA MAKES LARGE GAINS IN KHARKIV

DRAMATICALLY EXPANDS CONFLICT LINE

The much anticipated Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region has finally happened. It should be no surprise, as many have been predicting that this would occur soon after the annual victory day celebrations in Moscow. The question is what is Russia's strategy with this expansion of the conflict line. One is that Russia has wanted to push the Ukrainians away from being in range of its southern cities that have been targeted by Ukraine. The other is they will soon be within artillery range of Kharkiv city, this will add to the bombing and rocket attacks that have been effective at evacuating the 2nd largest city in Ukraine. 

While some believe that Russia will soon assault Kharkiv city, it is doubtful. They so far have used a light force for this attack, not enough for an assault on the city, but enough to cause Ukraine to send reserves from other places in the conflict area. It is likely they are just stretching the Ukrainians thinner and will take advantage of that situation wherever it is made available. 

It would not be surprising if Russia also opened some sort of offensive in the Kherson region, particularly if Ukraine takes troops from that area. 

The reality is that Russia has 100's of thousands of reserve forces waiting in western Russia and the Ukrainians literally have no reserves. Their army is exhausted and on the verge of collapse. It appears they will not be able to maintain this defense much longer.

Russia on the other hand seems content to make just incremental gains and keep decimating the Ukrainian army and equipment. They may feel that if they continue in this strategy they can prevail without even fighting urban conflicts in Kharkiv or Kiev. Ukraine is now on borrowed time, unless NATO comes to their rescue with troops on the ground. Another reason Russia wants to keep the fight in eastern Ukraine. If NATO wants to fight with Russia they will need to do it on Russia's terms 700 miles from Poland, but near to Russia's supply lines. A situation that has been the downfall of many armies in the past.